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Market Indicators - Investor Sentiment
This archived discussion is "read only". « Previous 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 Next » » Gene - Correction To 5/22/2000 - Investor's Sentiment Readings Statman - Thanks for the catch.A Great Big Whoops and Apologies to our readers, it appears we reversed the Bullish numbers and didn't catch it! That makes the drop from Corrections to Bearish case but not the drop we thought in Bullish %. Bulls = 49.1% Last Week = 48.6% Two Weeks = 47.6% % Bulls/(% Bulls + % Bears)= Sentiment % 49.1%/(49.1% + 33.6%) = 59.37%% Rolling 4 week average = 60.95% Gene -- posted by Gene » Gene - 6/1/2000 - Investor's Sentiment Readings Well, we are back after taking a two week hiatus to recover from our hernia repair but we also had the old PC repaired - backed up, reformatted, software reinstalled and so far all are doing well. Hopefully now, our Market Readings and Prognostications will fare as well. We took advantage of the time to visit friends, former colleagues in the Financial Services Industry, peruse the message boards and get caught up on the latest financial news and information. We caught Rande's suggestion for The Great Game: The Story of Wall Street. It certainly showed how much we Americans have always loved Technology, whether it was the Erie Canal, Telegraph, Railroads, Radio, Computers and of course The Internet! And along with the growth of regulatory rules to protect us along with the various booms and busts we have experienced as well as how greed and fear drive many financial decisions. Fascinating.Can you believe this market and the predictions from all Strategists, Analysts and Seers? Take your pick - Bear market crash ahead due to hard landing from Big Al. Nay, nay, the Bull will continue as soon as Big Al stops messing with rates. And last but not least, Da Brink calling for a trading rally then reversion back to the BEAR! Maybe he will like the rally so well, he will keep his folks IN the market. Wouldn't that be hilarious, too bad most didn't get the signal in time to do anything? In short, this is beginning to look like an Investor's Graduation Test - What To Do in the 10th Year (or 18th depending upon whence the count started) of a Bull Market? It certainly does seem that the $2 Trillion dollars sent to Stock Market heaven in the March to May time frame has caught the attention of many an investor. Of course, all investors know that markets go up more years than go down BUT sometimes that downward slide will test even those who claim to be the most resolute of long term investors. Anecdotally, many many folks seem to have gone further out on the risk limb than they realized and were just plain sawed off and got clobbered. Most investors "claim" to be aware that the FOMC Police would occasionally come to the party and take away the punch bowl. But somehow, many investors weren't prepared for the FOMC to hang around like the local constabulary, man handle the Dot.coms and Techs in such an unseemly fashion and keep handing out those horrible Fed rate increase tickets, culminating with the 50 basis dozy on May 16th! Then they wanted to make sure we all drank the black coffee to sober up and fly right. What an insult! Especially since ALL those Pundits on TV claimed from 6/99 thru 5/2000, the Fed would NOT DARE raise it again, again, again, again, again and again! As if the Fed was going to leave all that LTCM, Russian Default Insurance and Y2K moola (M2, M3 and M5) laying around for us to invest and think we were actually rich! Especially it seems, not the woman who called Bob Brinker last weekend, had >15,000 shares of MSFT, a margin loan of >$380,000 and managed to secure her mortgage with her MSFT stock! The very stock that has dropped close to 50% in 5 months. The understatement of the year was she said she was nervous and had trouble sleeping as she did the EXACT opposite of what Bob had recommended, simply amazing. We admit to liking this current rally as it is helping out the old portfolio but we will admit to being perplexed after looking at all the money flows, high valuations, global growth issues and earnings going forward issues. To these eyes, it just seems a little too pat declare victory and to say the Soft Landing has been achieved but hey, who are we to argue with success? Maybe the Fed has learned how to fine tune the economy to allow reasonable growth as well as allow us a little stock play time. And as a side benefit, it will help pay off the national debt in record time! Look at this figure - during 1999's Jan to April time period, we investors put $56.41 Billion into stock mutual funds vs $167.78 Billion in year 2000 to achieve negative returns! Advice of the day is after all this recent volatility - look at your Asset Allocation, calculate a beta for your portfolio and make any adjustments accordingly buy selling into strength or buying a dip if you are so inclined. But most of all, check out what is a Bear / Bull trap. The Sentiment Readings continue to trend slightly downward but remain upbeat overall in spite of all the recent volatility. The Rolling 4 week Sentiment average covers the period from 5/15/2000 thru 6/05/2000. It is also important to remember that Bob Brinker considers a 70% ratio number to be neutral and is only one of his four main indicators with the other three being Economic, Monetary and Valuation. From CNBC 5/31/00: Investor's Intelligence Bulls = 46.3% Last Week = 46.0% Two Weeks = 49.1% % Bulls/(% Bulls + % Bears)= Sentiment % 46.3%/(46.3% + 34.3%) = 57.44%% Rolling 4 week average = 59.10% Weekly Bullish Sentiment %: Week 05/29 = 58.67% 07/20/98 Bulls = 52% Bears 24% for 68.42% Gene -- posted by Gene » Demogremlin - Gene, are you enjoying a well-deserved vacation? I was just looking forward to one of your insightful updates.Panspar -- posted by Demogremlin » Rande - Gene, Gene,Excellent, as usual. Glad you enjoyed "Game," I thought it was very well done -- informative and entertaining. The divergence of opinions you mention certainly is mind-bending at times. I'm particularly bemused by the dichotomy of Brinker's current stance -- bullish short-term, bearish long-term. I would imagine that these days his followers aren't sure what to root for. -- posted by Rande » JenL_2 - Where's the Cash? More on Side-lined Cash from 8/28 Barron'sInvestors poured $3.3 billion into stock funds in the week ended Wednesday, according to AMG Data Services: Money-market funds hauled in a bulging $9.2 billion. Taxable-bond funds lost $474 million, while muni fund outflows totaled $60 million. <img src="http://www.geocities.com/jeninvestor/cas..." width=450 height=360> .....Jen -- posted by JenL_2 » Felipe - What's going on with futures I've learned not to read too much into the futures prices, but tonight's figures are pretty impressive. CNNfn shows NASDQ futures 198 below fair value, and S&P futures about 40 below fair value. If I wasn't so tired, it would leave a pit in my stomach.-- posted by Felipe » Felipe - Yeah, we're looking at the same numbers 3159.50 for the naz and 1383 for the S&P. On the CNN site, they also show the fair value. I'm puzzled by tonight's calculation of fair value, which seems higher than I would expect. But There showing fair value at 3355 for the naz and 1423 for the S&P.Whatever. I can wait for the story to unfold tomorrow--won't change my plan. -- posted by Felipe « Previous 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 Next » Please follow the guidelines set forth in the Suite101 Posting Etiquette when adding to the discussion. |
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