Market Indicators - Investor Sentiment
- Wendell
- Gene
- Rande
- JenL_2
- Gene
- SteveT
- Gene
- gorby
- Gene
- Rande
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» Gene - Betty, Wendell et al
Betty, Jen, Rande, Kirk and Wendell, many thanks for the encouragement and it certainly will keep me banging the keys a while longer. And a special thanks to Betty for getting Kirk to "double" my salary!Kirk - Wow! Newsprint prices being lower, you certainly got me there! I'll admit that one wasn't even on my inflation radar screen and double checked the gov stats, nope not there either. But of course I would suppose that a no-inflation is there believer as you, would agree that in the new Internet era, items like rent, housing prices, gasoline, utilities etc certainly would rank higher on a individual's inflation perceptions?
Oh, oh Kirk - don't look now but the paper companies are reported higher profits due to "a better pricing environment" and their stocks are up across the board. Champion International reported net income more than doubled on rising pulp and paper prices and improving global demand! Hmmm, certainly a paradox there, maybe they know something?
Gene
-- posted by Gene
» Rande - Inflation.
Inflation. Maybe someone should do a serious study of the U.S. Postal Service. Anyone know what the inflation-adjusted price of a first class stamp "should" be? A lot higher than it is, that's for sure. And, yet, it's the only government agency I'm aware of that makes a profit! These guys are doing something right.-- posted by Rande
» JenL_2 - Paper Companies
Gene you said:Oh, oh Kirk - don't look now but the paper companies are reported higher profits due to "a better pricing environment" and their stocks are up across the board. Champion International reported net income more than doubled on rising pulp and paper prices and improving global demand! Hmmm, certainly a paradox there, maybe they know something?
Nice to own some stodgy old value stocks and mutual funds when the nasdaq dips.....Jen
-- posted by JenL_2
» Gene - 4/17/2000 - Investor's Sentiment Readings
Well, now we know what our parents meant when they told us, "Be careful of what you wish for, it just might come true"!It seems every week, the average investor and the media pundits would talk about the need for a "health restoring correction" or how well they were positioned for "buying X Tech" stock if it would only come down into their price range. Methinks they were all looking for another of those recent "small dips to buy" without incurring much real pain. Well, it appears that dip is here and it looks like a bloody crater. So the bargains are there for the taking - if you want or believe they are there. I also think it is a tough lesson but hopefully many will realize what Asset Allocation and Diversification really means. We seem understand many items intellectually when we read about them but we only accept them emotionally when they become real.
A burning question that will surely emerge at the end of the day if what I'm currently seeing on the screen as I write this at 1:30 PM EST stays remotely in place, "Now tell me where o' where did that almost $2 Trillion in market value evaporate to since March 10, 2000"?
We should start a Suite 101 pool on when the 1st lawsuits will be appearing in our litigious society? Also, which companies will be ask to make whole some depleted portfolios due to some "unsuitable" advice that was given some where by someone, sometime in the last year?
It also seems to these old investor's eyes to be a very stupid trick on the part of investors to have the markets drop this much to just fake out Big Al from raising rates anymore. These same pundits who are saying this on the Yakking Media, are the same ones who have been dead wrong for the last year on Fed and interest rates.
It reminds me of when we were children and were about to be caught doing something wrong, I also don't think Big Al is listening to all those prayers crying out, "Enough, enough we are getting the message. And if you just allow me to get back to even, I won't sin anymore by speculating or flaunting that irrational exuberance or conspicuous wealth effect in your face anymore"!
Something I found totally bizarre this week as I was preparing these Sentiment numbers, was the INCREASE in Bullishness after last week. What in Investing world were they thinking about? I always remembered the saying:
Bull markets correct the excesses of a Bear market.
Bear markets correct the excesses of a Bull market.
Let's hope this ain't the big one as Roger has been reminding us for what seems like eons.
Now to get some popcorn and soda for watching the closing action between 3:00 - 4:00 PM!
The Rolling 4 week Sentiment average covers the period from 3/27/2000 thru 4/17/2000.
It is also important to remember that Bob Brinker considers a 70% ratio number to be neutral and is only one of his four main indicators with the other three being Economic, Monetary and Valuation.
From CNBC release 4/12/00:
Investor's Intelligence
Bulls = 56.9% Last Week = 54.9% Two Weeks = 54.1%
Bears = 26.7% Last Week = 29.2% Two Weeks = 29.4%
Corr = 16.4% Last Week = 15.9% Two Weeks = 16.5%
% Bulls/(% Bulls + % Bears)= Sentiment %
56.9%/(56.9% + 26.7%) = 68.06%%
Rolling 4 week average = 66.49%
Weekly Bullish Sentiment %:
Week 04/10 = 65.28%
Week 04/03 = 64.79%
Week 03/27 = 67.84%
Week 03/20 = 64.33%
Week 03/13 = 65.93%
Week 03/06 = 64.84%
Week 02/28 = 64.42%
Week 02/21 = 66.63%
Week 02/14 = 65.60%
Week 02/07 = 63.78%
Week 01/31 = 68.17%
Week 01/24 = 67.08%
Week 01/17 = 67.37%
Week 01/10 = 64.84%
Week 01/03 = 67.07%
Week 12/27 = 64.41%
Week 12/20 = 64.43%
Week 12/13 = 63.83%
Week 12/06 = 64.87%
Week 11/29 = 64.16%
Week 11/22 = 62.61%
Week 11/15 = 55.29%
Week 11/08 = 52.70%
Week 11/01 = 51.70%
07/20/98 Bulls = 52% Bears 24% for 68.42%
10/12/98 Bulls = 38.5% Bears 42.7% for 47.41%
Gene
-- posted by Gene
» Gene - Awaiting Monday
Some random observations after The Week That Was ended April 14, 2000.Amazing to me to how eager everyone is to see what happens on Monday, April 17th and has thoughts on it. Some burning questions were forthcoming - what will the Globex futures tell us, will there be a ton SOS activity as Roger recommends (Sell on Strength), or will the masses rush in with their buy orders on "all the bargains" or will the Big Wall Street Brokerages ride to the rescue and finally, will the Fed give us a heads up that they won't raise interest rates (fat chance)? I thought Big Al's talk the other day just about told stock market and NASDAQ investors to go play in their sandbox with all their margined kitty litter. After all the talk this weekend, emails and phone calls, one would think Monday was Super Bowl XXX of Investing!
The investing news and postings since Friday were unending - we got excerpts from the Bob Brinker LA appearance that Bob was in fine form and apparently not the least bit concerned by any S101 yipping at his prognostications. We saw much gnashing of teeth and stunned postings at various message boards what the Naz had done to portfolios in such a short time with those final 4/14 prices and NAVs. Folks were rereading some of Roger's postings to see what they had missed and finally many tuned in to watch Uncle Lou's Wall Street Week to see if he had Gail Dudack back as a "Surprised, Honored and Restored Elf" and to see if the puns seemed in any way a wee bit strained to explain the Market carnage.
A few odd thoughts, what ever happened to the authors of Dow 36,000, Glassman and Hassett as one doesn't see much of them around lately? I'll have to admit to being tired of seeing one more interview with the Irrational Exuberance author, Robert J. Shiller and his opinions on why investors in the stock market occasionally will do something.... well irrational. Also I thought when Marie Bartiromo called Abby Cohen a "genius" during the CNBC "Calm Everyone Down Interview" for moving from Equity 70% to 65% and raising 5% Cash, I would gag. What does that make Bob Brinker et al followers for moving, oh say - 60% to cash, mensa investors?
Did anyone notice that for a mild mannered guy, Bill Flannigan sure came across as a hard nosed sort yesterday and today. But then, maybe he just didn't like what a lot of folks had said about him last year. But with a lot of good folk's portfolios "under stress" these days, he should have had some empathy and focused on those nasty and evil Margined Day Traders, who we have all come to rightly blame for this temporary nonsense!
To all who are uptight and taking offense at the market or blasting Bob Brinker on his 1/2000 call and then parsing his every utterance, then others who are yapping at Kirk & Rande for their calls, I will repeat some of the best advice I was given by a friend when I was out of sorts on an issue one day as it certainly applies to this market situation: "Life is Hard, Wear a Helmet".
A true story: My son told me of a friend who had gone to Vietnam for several weeks and he did not know what had transpired in the Markets and the Naz during that time. Upon returning home Friday and after opening his E*Trade account and looking at his balance, he called the office to see if his Tech stock had declared a 4:1 split or the shares weren't yet credited!
Just a couple of random thoughts.....Gene
-- posted by Gene
» Gene - 4/24/2000 - Investor's Sentiment Readings
The “Who wants to be a Millionaire” question this week is: “How well did you enjoy the roller coaster ride the last couple of weeks in the Markets?”Well, methinks we had better get used to more of the same as the way we see it, da Bulls and da Bears will be ramping up their PR for the heart and soul of America’s investing public in the coming weeks and months. Of course you are entitled to call your lifeline at S101 - Rande, Kirk or Roger depending upon your particular persuasion. You might want to place a call to Bob Brinker at the Town Hall thread as he is answering his mail at that location these days. Or you can even tune in and call the “Strategists and Fund Managers” who appear daily on CNBC to tell us what happened with their 100% accurate 20 X 20 hindsight forecast (a little mixed metaphor there). Lately, they do seem to be scared witless that someone might show the viewing audience their predictions from no more interest rate hikes, Dow 15,000, NASDAQ 6,000 from their previous appearances. Hey, how about even a call to the panel on WSJ, but they seem to be adrift as they are all Perma Bulls (100% Bullish by Brinker calculations) and with Gail Dudak gone - no answers there!
Let’s be clear, there can be no question that we have a hale and hearty economy. Folks are continuing to spend at a brisk pace as the statistics clearly show. The job situation is certainly looking mighty fine to ALL levels of the working populace. And the signing bonuses when one switches jobs are certainly helping some folks to pay off that nasty credit card debt or gets one a grub stake for a little stock market action. Excepting of course when a company goes out of business or disappointed earnings either get the working folks “right sized”, or those stock options finish worthless. What a truly awful term that term, right sizing is – IMHO.
We also had Tom Glavin from DLJ, come out and lead the Bullish parade in upping the Equity portfolios, with Tom going to 90%. So, with the valuations stretched at these levels, it will certainly be interesting to see how many investors follow those flags. The cash inflow has been extraordinary so far in 2000 according to Trimtabs and has been setting all time records so far in 2000. Therefore, with minimal redemption requests to worry about, the fund managers certainly have ample cash to throw at their perceived bargains.
To show the strength of the economy, due in this case to Technology, we had a story in our local paper that some grocery clerks in Silicon Valley get $16 hour to stock shelves and sell $3 tomatoes to the Silicon Valley Billionaires and centa / deca millionaires! As we all know too well, what starts in California, slowly works its way back Eastward, so many hereabouts are licking their chops in anticipation for their soon to be granted raises.
Even during this last Tech wreck, many at a Venture Capitalist conference in Silicon Valley, were happily proclaiming “This was a good thing, as it will mean more scrutiny before going public as too many bad ideas were rolled out”. Perhaps I missed it in all the market noise, but I don’t recall them or the Wall Street Brokerages or the Venture Capitalists saying 3 to 6 months ago “Don't buy my IPO stock as it is overvalued”?
Now, as for Da Bears, having finished dining on many the Heavily Margined and Day Trader portfolios, they seemed to have set their sights on the Tech Heavy NASDAQ. They had better be careful as many a Bear has been de-clawed and skinned alive whil playing in American's favorite investing patch. Their logic is simply with some earnings disapointments combined with some investment gains being passed of as earnings, they feel the time maybe right. Don't the Bears realize that This Time It Is Different and The New Paradigm needs new metrics?
We will have to see how Mister Softee's earning's and guarded future comments made Thursday night after the close and before a long weekend plays out on Monday 4/24.
The Bears maybe hoping the fact that many companies are “missing” top line growth (IBM, INTC etc) and appear to be utilizing Japanese like “Keritsu” cross investment gains in their earnings from other beloved Tech companies will present the newly educated investors with a digestion problem. Or at the very least, a reluctance to commit their hard earn moola to companies until that basic cry of “1st Show Me the Earnings” is met! Along with a spate of articles proclaiming how the “Early Investors” as the Venture Capitalists and the Founders) got their Billions out early (See WSJ 4/19/2000 lead story) while selling to the “General Public” will certainly get those Populist American animal spirits going full bore. Why we even heard the words, Wall Street Ponzi Scheme” being tossed about by several to describe the Wall Street action in IPOs! Must have been some folks who didn't get in on those early "chain letters"!!
We noticed where the SBC workers are suing their company because of the way they felt they were cheated from gains in the Vodaphone stock that was formerly in their 401k. Who had SBC in the pool we suggested last week for the 1st investment related lawsuit to be filed from any correction or Bear mauling?
The Sentiment numbers certainly continue to confirm to us the overall bullishness present in this economy. The NASDAQ dropping 25% in 1 week caused the Bullish ratio to drop a whole 2%, now that is real fear showing!
The Rolling 4 week Sentiment average covers the period from 4/03/2000 thru 4/24/2000.
It is also important to remember that Bob Brinker considers a 70% ratio number to be neutral and is only one of his four main indicators with the other three being Economic, Monetary and Valuation.
From CNBC release and Kirk email 4/19/00:
Investor's Intelligence
Bulls = 54.9% Last Week = 56.9% Two Weeks = 54.9%
Bears = 28.3% Last Week = 26.7% Two Weeks = 29.2%
Corr = 16.8% Last Week = 16.4% Two Weeks = 15.9%
% Bulls/(% Bulls + % Bears)= Sentiment %
54.9%/(54.9% + 28.3%) = 65.99%%
Rolling 4 week average = 66.03%
Weekly Bullish Sentiment %:
Week 04/17 = 68.06%
Week 04/10 = 65.28%
Week 04/03 = 64.79%
Week 03/27 = 67.84%
Week 03/20 = 64.33%
Week 03/13 = 65.93%
Week 03/06 = 64.84%
Week 02/28 = 64.42%
Week 02/21 = 66.63%
Week 02/14 = 65.60%
Week 02/07 = 63.78%
Week 01/31 = 68.17%
Week 01/24 = 67.08%
Week 01/17 = 67.37%
Week 01/10 = 64.84%
Week 01/03 = 67.07%
Week 12/27 = 64.41%
Week 12/20 = 64.43%
Week 12/13 = 63.83%
Week 12/06 = 64.87%
Week 11/29 = 64.16%
Week 11/22 = 62.61%
Week 11/15 = 55.29%
Week 11/08 = 52.70%
Week 11/01 = 51.70%
07/20/98 Bulls = 52% Bears 24% for 68.42%
10/12/98 Bulls = 38.5% Bears 42.7% for 47.41%
Gene
-- posted by Gene
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