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SteveT
- January 6, 2005 Sentiment
As we open 2006 the bears are increasing in both polls. The bulls are still in control at II but AAII is showing a strong bearish presence. I think it worth pointing out AAII have a vast majority sitting on the sidelines.
I am using the VTO report for the II data. http://vtoreport.com/sentiment/sentiment...
Note for clarification historic sentiment tables are for that current week and not the four-week moving average.
Investors Intelligence Bulls 55.7% Bears 23.7% Correction 20.6%
55.7/(55.7 +23.7) = 70.15%
Four Week Average = 72.52%
A few historic dates:
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 58.91%
9-17-01 52.0%
9-21-01 48.7%
7-19-02 47.2%
7-23-02 47.2%
10-9-02 50.0%
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Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 44.3%
Four Week Average = 42.53%
hairie has researched some fascinating numbers for all time high bulls readings going back to 1965. http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...
and lows from 1965-2003 http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...
From Barron' s 1/9/05
The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 29.4% Bears 40.2% Neutral 30.4%
29.4/(29.4+40.2) = 42.24%
Four Week Average = 54.79%
Historic dates for comparison:
7-16-98 44.3% S&P 500 Close 1186.75
10-12-98 36.76% S&P 500 Close 984.39
4-3-00 77.78% S&P 500 Close 1505.97
1-1-01 58.82% S&P 500 Close 1320.28
4-4-01 51.35% S&P 500 Close 1103.25
9-10-01 47.34% S&P 500 Close 1085.78
9-17-01 42.11% S&P 500 Close 1038.77
9-21-01 41.08% S&P 500 Close 965.80
7-19-02 32.88% S&P 500 Close 847.75
7-23-02 32.88% S&P 500 Close 797.70
10-9-02 42.36% S&P 500 Close 776.76
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Sideline Money Bears + Neutral =
70.6%Four Week Average =
61.53%For more info on AAII check out their web site.
http://www.aaii.com
As of January 6, 2006 close
The CBOE Put/Call ratio 10 day moving average is at .78. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.we... The VIX Market Volatility Index closed Friday at 11.00. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=%5evix&d=t
