Market Indicators - Investor Sentiment

Top 1034. Dec 3, 2005 5:05 AM

» SteveT - December 2, 2005 Sentiment

I am using the VTO report for the II data. http://vtoreport.com/sentiment/sentiment...
Note for clarification historic sentiment tables are for that current week and not the four-week moving average.

Bullish sentiment has picked up slightly since last week. Very little change in either VIX or Put/Call lately. I must confess to trimming back my equity position on Thursday, nothing drastic, it was about 3% higher than my target so I got it back in line. The bull bear ratio in both polls is at or near the 70% often a signal the market is topping or set to take a pause.

Investors Intelligence Bulls 55.8% Bears 21.1 % Correction 23.1 %
55.8/(55.8 +21.1) = 72.56%
Four Week Average = 69.87%


A few historic dates:
7-20-98  68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00   67.79% 
1-1-01   64.10%
4-4-01   58.91%
9-17-01  52.0%
9-21-01  48.7%
7-19-02  47.2%
7-23-02  47.2%
10-9-02  50.0%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 44.2%
Four Week Average = 46.73%
hairie has researched some fascinating numbers for all time high bulls readings going back to 1965. http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...
and lows from 1965-2003 http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...

From Barron' s 12/5/05
The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 52.5% Bears 23.5% Neutral 24.1%
52.5/(52.5+23.5) = 69.08 %
Four Week Average = 72.48 %

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 47.6%
Four Week Average = 44.53%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com

As of December 2, 2005 close
The CBOE Put/Call ratio 10 day moving average is at .88. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.we... The VIX Market Volatility Index closed Friday at 11.03. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=%5evix&d=t

-- posted by SteveT

Top 1035. Dec 10, 2005 6:30 AM

» SteveT - December 9, 2005 Sentiment

I am using the VTO report for the II data. http://vtoreport.com/sentiment/sentiment...
Note for clarification historic sentiment tables are for that current week and not the four-week moving average.

Investors Intelligence Bulls 56.2 % Bears 21.9 % Correction 21.9 %
56.2/(56.2 +21.9) = 71.96 %
Four Week Average = 71.05%


A few historic dates:
7-20-98  68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00   67.79% 
1-1-01   64.10%
4-4-01   58.91%
9-17-01  52.0%
9-21-01  48.7%
7-19-02  47.2%
7-23-02  47.2%
10-9-02  50.0%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 43.8 %
Four Week Average = 45.33 %
hairie has researched some fascinating numbers for all time high bulls readings going back to 1965. http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...
and lows from 1965-2003 http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...

From Barron' s 12/12/05
The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 49.5% Bears 19.0 % Neutral 31.6 %
49.5/(49.5+19) = 72.26 %
Four Week Average = 72.61 %

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 50.6%
Four Week Average = 46.83%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com

As of December 9, 2005 close
The CBOE Put/Call ratio 10 day moving average is at .89. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.we... The VIX Market Volatility Index closed Friday at 11.69. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=%5evix&d=t

-- posted by SteveT

Top 1036. Dec 17, 2005 4:43 AM

» SteveT - December 16, 2005 Sentiment

I am using the VTO report for the II data. http://vtoreport.com/sentiment/sentiment...
Note for clarification historic sentiment tables are for that current week and not the four-week moving average.

Investors Intelligence Bulls 58.8 % Bears 21.6 % Correction 19.6 %
58.8/(58.8 +21.6) = 73.13 %
Four Week Average = 71.88 %


A few historic dates:
7-20-98  68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00   67.79% 
1-1-01   64.10%
4-4-01   58.91%
9-17-01  52.0%
9-21-01  48.7%
7-19-02  47.2%
7-23-02  47.2%
10-9-02  50.0%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 41.20 %
Four Week Average = 43.90 %
hairie has researched some fascinating numbers for all time high bulls readings going back to 1965. http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...
and lows from 1965-2003 http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...

From Barron' s 12/19/05
The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 46.2 % Bears 22.1 % Neutral 31.7 %
46.2/(46.2 +22.1) = 67.64 %
Four Week Average = 71.83 %

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 53.8%
Four Week Average = 48.68%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com

As of December 16, 2005 close
The CBOE Put/Call ratio 10 day moving average is at .75. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.we... The VIX Market Volatility Index closed Friday at 10.68. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=%5evix&d=t

-- posted by SteveT

Top 1037. Dec 24, 2005 4:37 AM

» SteveT - December 23, 2005 Sentiment

No big surprises this holiday week in VIX or Put/Call. Both polls are showing fewer bulls. Seems in II they went to undecided and AAII they became bearish.

I am using the VTO report for the II data. http://vtoreport.com/sentiment/sentiment...
Note for clarification historic sentiment tables are for that current week and not the four-week moving average.

Investors Intelligence Bulls 55% Bears 21 % Correction 24 %
55/(55 +21) = 72.37 %
Four Week Average = 72.51 %


A few historic dates:
7-20-98  68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00   67.79% 
1-1-01   64.10%
4-4-01   58.91%
9-17-01  52.0%
9-21-01  48.7%
7-19-02  47.2%
7-23-02  47.2%
10-9-02  50.0%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 45 %
Four Week Average = 43.55 %
hairie has researched some fascinating numbers for all time high bulls readings going back to 1965. http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...
and lows from 1965-2003 http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...

From Barron' s 12/26/05
The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 41 % Bears 28.2 % Neutral 30.8 %
41/(41 +28.2) = 59.25 %
Four Week Average = 67.09 %

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 59%
Four Week Average = 52.75%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com

As of December 23, 2005 close
The CBOE Put/Call ratio 10 day moving average is at .75. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.we... The VIX Market Volatility Index closed Friday at 10.27. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=%5evix&d=t

-- posted by SteveT

Top 1038. Dec 31, 2005 4:28 AM

» SteveT - December 30, 2005 Sentiment

I am using the VTO report for the II data. http://vtoreport.com/sentiment/sentiment...
Note for clarification historic sentiment tables are for that current week and not the four-week moving average.

Investors Intelligence Bulls 60.4 % Bears 20.8 % Correction 18.8 %
60.4/(60.4 +20.8) = 74.38 %
Four Week Average = 72.98 %


A few historic dates:
7-20-98  68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00   67.79% 
1-1-01   64.10%
4-4-01   58.91%
9-17-01  52.0%
9-21-01  48.7%
7-19-02  47.2%
7-23-02  47.2%
10-9-02  50.0%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 39.6 %
Four Week Average = 42.4 %

hairie has researched some fascinating numbers for all time high bulls readings going back to 1965. http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...
and lows from 1965-2003 http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...

From Barron' s 1/2/05
The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 37.3 % Bears 36.5 % Neutral 26.2 %
37.3/(37.3 +36.5) = 50.54 %
Four Week Average = 62.19 %

Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 62.7%
Four Week Average = 56.53%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com

As of December 30, 2005 close
The CBOE Put/Call ratio 10 day moving average is at .87. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.we... The VIX Market Volatility Index closed Friday at 12.07. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=%5evix&d=t

-- posted by SteveT

Top 1039. Dec 31, 2005 6:12 AM

» hairie31 - First Down Year ending in "5"

Quietly yesterday, a 100 year trend, that years ending in "5" are always up, was broken for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with a loss for 2005 of (-.60 %) Although the S & P 500 was up 3 % for the year.

Like Investors Intelligence and the VIX, when everyone starts using some of these sure-fire indicators...they stop working.

Not sure what this really means...if anything.

Looking back at years ending in "5", the average rate of return of the Dow from 1905 to 1995 of the years ending in "5", was a whopping + 34.54 %

Till yesterday, the "worst" year was 1965, with a + 10.25 % return.

1905..+ 38.15 %
1915..+ 81.65 %
1925..+ 30 %
1935..+ 38.65 %
1945..+ 26.64 %
1955..+ 20.77 %
1965..+ 10.25 %
1975..+ 38.25 %
1985..+ 27.66 %
1995..+ 33.45 %
2005.. (-.60 %)

Even in the earlier years, before the Dow, 1885 and 1895, were both up years with the:

14 Stock Average up + 20.1 % in 1885
12 Stock Average up + 2.3 % in 1895

So one of the most dependable indicators stopped
working yesterday.

I won't be so confident now about 2015 being a up year!

-- posted by hairie31

Top 1040. Dec 31, 2005 9:58 AM

» AL_W - Re: Re: First Down Year ending in "5"

In response to Re: First Down Year ending in "5" posted by Kirk:

My Schwab SP500 fund has returned a total to me of 4.65% for the year vs a 3.05% NAV return.

Dividend accounting is important. A fund I recently bought shows an ugly NAV drop 10 days ago. A loss? No! Just an 8% dividend payout.

-- posted by AL_W

Top 1041. Dec 31, 2005 7:34 PM

» hairie31 - Dividends on Years Ending in " 5"

*
Those rates of return were not counting dividend yields.

Prior to the last 15 years, dividend yields were much higher than they are today. Somewhere in the 4% to 8% range with some incredibly high dividend yields at market bottoms, like 12.2 % in 1917 and 11.2 %in 1932.

But I think it would be safe to add at least 4.5 %
dividend yield to those historical average returns
bringing that 34.54 % average to more like 40 % average rate of return.

Last time I checked I think the Dividend yield was around 1.8 %. So with a (-.60 %) on the Dow plus a
Dividend yield of about 1.8 %, that's still only about a 1.2 % real rate of return. A far cry from a 40 % historical average.

-- posted by hairie31

Top 1042. Jan 6, 2006 2:25 PM

» Normxxx - Santa Clause Rally

Santa Clause Rally

Did everyone enjoy the Santa Clause Rally left over from last year? "Everyone" sold in the last week in December in anticipation of another swoon like last year— but the market rarely accommodates "everyone!" Now, the last weeks in January may provide a clue for the rest of the year.

-- posted by Normxxx