Market Indicators - Investor Sentiment

» hairie31 - First Down Year ending in "5"

Like Investors Intelligence and the VIX, when everyone starts using some of these sure-fire indicators...they stop working.

Not sure what this really means...if anything.

Looking back at years ending in "5", the average rate of return of the Dow from 1905 to 1995 of the years ending in "5", was a whopping + 34.54 %

Till yesterday, the "worst" year was 1965, with a + 10.25 % return.

1905..+ 38.15 %
1915..+ 81.65 %
1925..+ 30 %
1935..+ 38.65 %
1945..+ 26.64 %
1955..+ 20.77 %
1965..+ 10.25 %
1975..+ 38.25 %
1985..+ 27.66 %
1995..+ 33.45 %
2005.. (-.60 %)

Even in the earlier years, before the Dow, 1885 and 1895, were both up years with the:

14 Stock Average up + 20.1 % in 1885
12 Stock Average up + 2.3 % in 1895

So one of the most dependable indicators stopped
working yesterday.

I won't be so confident now about 2015 being a up year!

-- posted by hairie31

» AL_W - Re: Re: First Down Year ending in "5"

My Schwab SP500 fund has returned a total to me of 4.65% for the year vs a 3.05% NAV return.

Dividend accounting is important. A fund I recently bought shows an ugly NAV drop 10 days ago. A loss? No! Just an 8% dividend payout.

-- posted by AL_W

» hairie31 - Dividends on Years Ending in " 5"

Prior to the last 15 years, dividend yields were much higher than they are today. Somewhere in the 4% to 8% range with some incredibly high dividend yields at market bottoms, like 12.2 % in 1917 and 11.2 %in 1932.

But I think it would be safe to add at least 4.5 %
dividend yield to those historical average returns
bringing that 34.54 % average to more like 40 % average rate of return.

Last time I checked I think the Dividend yield was around 1.8 %. So with a (-.60 %) on the Dow plus a
Dividend yield of about 1.8 %, that's still only about a 1.2 % real rate of return. A far cry from a 40 % historical average.

-- posted by hairie31

» Normxxx - Santa Clause Rally

Did everyone enjoy the Santa Clause Rally left over from last year? "Everyone" sold in the last week in December in anticipation of another swoon like last year— but the market rarely accommodates "everyone!" Now, the last weeks in January may provide a clue for the rest of the year.

-- posted by Normxxx

» SteveT - January 6, 2005 Sentiment

I am using the VTO report for the II data. http://vtoreport.com/sentiment/sentiment...
Note for clarification historic sentiment tables are for that current week and not the four-week moving average.

Investors Intelligence Bulls 55.7% Bears 23.7% Correction 20.6%
55.7/(55.7 +23.7) = 70.15%
Four Week Average = 72.52%

A few historic dates: 7-20-98 68.42% 10-12-98 47.41% 4-3-00 67.79% 1-1-01 64.10% 4-4-01 58.91% 9-17-01 52.0% 9-21-01 48.7% 7-19-02 47.2% 7-23-02 47.2% 10-9-02 50.0%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 44.3%
Four Week Average = 42.53%


hairie has researched some fascinating numbers for all time high bulls readings going back to 1965. http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...
and lows from 1965-2003 http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...

From Barron' s 1/9/05
The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 29.4% Bears 40.2% Neutral 30.4%
29.4/(29.4+40.2) = 42.24%
Four Week Average = 54.79%

Historic dates for comparison:
7-16-98    44.3%        S&P 500 Close 1186.75
10-12-98   36.76%       S&P 500 Close  984.39
4-3-00     77.78%       S&P 500 Close 1505.97
1-1-01     58.82%       S&P 500 Close 1320.28
4-4-01     51.35%       S&P 500 Close 1103.25
9-10-01    47.34%       S&P 500 Close 1085.78
9-17-01    42.11%       S&P 500 Close 1038.77
9-21-01    41.08%       S&P 500 Close  965.80
7-19-02    32.88%       S&P 500 Close  847.75
7-23-02    32.88%       S&P 500 Close  797.70
10-9-02    42.36%       S&P 500 Close  776.76

As of January 6, 2006 close
The CBOE Put/Call ratio 10 day moving average is at .78. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.we... The VIX Market Volatility Index closed Friday at 11.00. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=%5evix&d=t

-- posted by SteveT

» SteveT - February 11, 2006 Sentiment

I am using the VTO report for the II data. http://vtoreport.com/sentiment/sentiment...
Note for clarification historic sentiment tables are for that current week and not the four-week moving average.

Investors Intelligence Bulls 51.6% Bears 25.3% Correction 23.1%
51.6/(51.6 +25.3) = 67.1%
Four Week Average = 68.43%

A few historic dates: 7-20-98 68.42% 10-12-98 47.41% 4-3-00 67.79% 1-1-01 64.10% 4-4-01 58.91% 9-17-01 52.0% 9-21-01 48.7% 7-19-02 47.2% 7-23-02 47.2% 10-9-02 50.0%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 48.4%
Four Week Average = 46.2%


hairie has researched some fascinating numbers for all time high bulls readings going back to 1965. http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...
and lows from 1965-2003 http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...

From Barron' s 2/13/05
The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 40.2% Bears 34.6% Neutral 25.2%
40.2/(40.2+34.6) = 53.74%
Four Week Average = 56.59%

Historic dates for comparison:
7-16-98    44.3%        S&P 500 Close 1186.75
10-12-98   36.76%       S&P 500 Close  984.39
4-3-00     77.78%       S&P 500 Close 1505.97
1-1-01     58.82%       S&P 500 Close 1320.28
4-4-01     51.35%       S&P 500 Close 1103.25
9-10-01    47.34%       S&P 500 Close 1085.78
9-17-01    42.11%       S&P 500 Close 1038.77
9-21-01    41.08%       S&P 500 Close  965.80
7-19-02    32.88%       S&P 500 Close  847.75
7-23-02    32.88%       S&P 500 Close  797.70
10-9-02    42.36%       S&P 500 Close  776.76

As of February 10, 2006 close
The CBOE Put/Call ratio 10 day moving average is at .85. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.we... The VIX Market Volatility Index closed Friday at 12.87. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=%5evix&d=t

-- posted by SteveT

» SteveT - February 18, 2006 Sentiment

I am using the VTO report for the II data. http://vtoreport.com/sentiment/sentiment...
Note for clarification historic sentiment tables are for that current week and not the four-week moving average.

Investors Intelligence Bulls 48.9% Bears 27.7% Correction 23.4%
48.9/(48.9 +27.7) = 63.84%
Four Week Average = 66.52%

A few historic dates: 7-20-98 68.42% 10-12-98 47.41% 4-3-00 67.79% 1-1-01 64.10% 4-4-01 58.91% 9-17-01 52.0% 9-21-01 48.7% 7-19-02 47.2% 7-23-02 47.2% 10-9-02 50.0%

Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 51.1%
Four Week Average = 48.3%


hairie has researched some fascinating numbers for all time high bulls readings going back to 1965. http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...
and lows from 1965-2003 http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...

From Barron' s 2/20/05
The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 40.2% Bears 35.7% Neutral 24.1%
40.2/(40.2+35.7) = 52.96%
Four Week Average = 53.24%

Historic dates for comparison:
7-16-98    44.3%        S&P 500 Close 1186.75
10-12-98   36.76%       S&P 500 Close  984.39
4-3-00     77.78%       S&P 500 Close 1505.97
1-1-01     58.82%       S&P 500 Close 1320.28
4-4-01     51.35%       S&P 500 Close 1103.25
9-10-01    47.34%       S&P 500 Close 1085.78
9-17-01    42.11%       S&P 500 Close 1038.77
9-21-01    41.08%       S&P 500 Close  965.80
7-19-02    32.88%       S&P 500 Close  847.75
7-23-02    32.88%       S&P 500 Close  797.70
10-9-02    42.36%       S&P 500 Close  776.76

As of February 17, 2006 close
The CBOE Put/Call ratio 10 day moving average is at .81. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.we... The VIX Market Volatility Index closed Friday at 12.14. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=%5evix&d=t

-- posted by SteveT

» jfw - investors intelliegence

enjoy..

-- posted by jfw

» Lam7 - II Data

-- posted by Lam7

» SteveT - II Data

Lam, we have moved the discussion to this URL

http://investment.suite101.com/discussio...

Steve

-- posted by SteveT