USE NEW THREAD!! TA: Technical Analysis &amp; Charting (3150+)

Top 137. Mar 30, 2001 11:51 AM

» Bob_in_CowTown - Re: PCG

In response to message posted by CaptRon:

Ron-Are you still in on your pcg trade?

Or, am I mistaken?

BIC smile

-- posted by Bob_in_CowTown

Top 138. Mar 30, 2001 11:58 AM

» burkmorz - Gap fill?

Might get a gap fill next week at the least at about 43.2 on QQQ (1720 approx. on NDX)?? Or if 6th is the "turn" day..maybe on next Friday?? (Assuming this wont' be a "down" turn..egads).....

-- posted by burkmorz

Top 139. Mar 30, 2001 12:17 PM

» CaptRon - Re: Re: PCG

In response to message posted by Bob_in_CowTown:
Hi BFC. Out above 14. Can't take the time to find the post right now, M8...
FWIW, looking to POSSIBLY re-enter on the long after reaction. To early to tell right now..
Hope yr well...

-- posted by CaptRon

Top 140. Mar 30, 2001 12:19 PM

» CaptRon - Re: Gap fill?

In response to message posted by burkmorz:

Possibly, M8. I GUESS probability is up to 9th +-1 Day, dwn to 18th +- 1 day, up to 26th +- 1 day.
Just a guess tho...

-- posted by CaptRon

Top 141. Mar 30, 2001 1:14 PM

» CaptRon - Re: Re: PCG

In response to message posted by Bob_in_CowTown:
BFC. Tried to find post where I exited PCG, but could only get back to Mar 26th. As I recall, the exit happened right after move above 14 in Wk of Jan 22:
http://www.askresearch.com/cgi-bin/chart...
FWIW, would not go long here...

-- posted by CaptRon

Top 142. Mar 30, 2001 1:23 PM

» CaptRon - Nothing to do this weekend?

This is from Crystal Ball. I re-post it for the numbers crunchers here, as I have way little patience for the these calcs. I do know Harley is held in some regard, so FWIW:

Category: Technical Talk
From: stanharley (Stan Harley)
To: ALL
Date Posted: March 29, 2001 at 17:50:47
Subject: SQUARING OF PRICE and TIME

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SQUARING PRICE WITH TIME
This technique involves counting forward in time an equal number of time units as units of price from an important high or low. I find it useful not only in projecting trend reversals in individual stocks, the indices, and commodities, but predicting reversals in the trends of the casino games like roulette and craps as well, demonstrating that time and price are inextricably related.

Squaring price and time is a technique that alerts me to the potential – but not the certainty – for a change in trend. The advance projection does not indicate whether that trend change will be a high or low; one must incorporate the use of additional tools, e.g., pattern analysis, cycles, range oscillators and/or measurement of price velocity to make that determination. It also does not project the magnitude of the move following the trend change. But, it is a very, very useful tool none-the-less.

I have spent literally hundreds and hundreds – no thousands – of hours researching the mathematical relationship between price and time. I am going to share with Crystal Ball readers the results of my research, which has been, very expensive – I think you know what I mean. I suspect I’ve done more research in this area than just about anyone, including W. D. Gann. As a scientist in the financial markets, I share my work product with fellow colleagues because I know it will come back to me many times over.

“Behind the wall the gods play; they play with numbers of which the universe is made up.” -- Le Corbusier

The Scaling Factor
The major problem inherent in the squaring of price and time involves the application of a scaling factor, or multiplier, to the raw data. In working with the stock indices, for example, the price units are so large that the direct conversion of the price units into time units produces an expected trend change date/hour that is very distant and of little use. To fix this problem requires the application of a scaling factor. The question, then, what scaling factor to use?

My research has shown the fibonacci constant that is the key factor. But not just 0.618034 -- -- it is .618034 raised to powers of itself that is the key: .618034^2 = .381966; .618034^3 = .236068; .618034^4 = .145898; .618034^5 = .090170; .618034^6 = .055728; .618034^7 = .034442; and .618034^8 = .021286.

With so many scaling factors to choose from, the question, then, which one to use? Le Corbusier was right; the gods of numerology have the solution: It matters not which scaling factor one uses, because they all produce the same turning points. The smaller numbers produce shorter time-span turning points. For calendar day analysis, I have found that the best factor to use is 0.618034 raised to the seventh power (= 0.034442). I take the value of an important high/low point on the price chart and multiply it by 0.034442. I also apply the additional factors of 0.618, 0.786, 1.000, 1.272, 1.618, 2.618, 3.000, and 4.236. Squaring the extreme high or extreme low price of an index can be very foretelling. I should also note that one should be very cognizant of the 3rd square of the price extreme, as very important turns tend to occur at this point.

For my analysis, I employ the squaring of price and time for three time periods: Calendar days, trading days, and trading hours. I use seven hours per trading day. From experience, I know the orb in the projected change in trend tends to average about 2-3 time units (CDs, TDs, THs). Often times, it is zero.

At first, it may seem as though the analyst is confronted with so many turns and scaling factors to render the analysis of little substantive use. In my work, I use the sort function in Lotus for assembling my data in the proper time order. In addition, most of the turning points are from the same date with different scaling factors are exactly the same, which I eliminate in the program. As such, it’s actually quite easy to calculate, sort, and analyze the data.

Calendar Days
Example 1: 21-Dec-2000L at 1254.07: Take the value of 1254.07, multiply it by .034442 (= 43), add 43 calendar days to the day that the low occurred, and you’ll arrive at the high on January 31, 2001.

Example 2: 24-Mar-2000H at 1552.87 (Extreme high in the S&P): Take the value of 1552.87, multiply it by 0.034442 X 3 (very Important for the price extreme) (= 161), add 161 calendar days to the day that the high occurred, and you’ll arrive at September 1, 2000.

Example 3: 31-Jan-2001H at 1383.37: Take the value of 1383.37, multiply it by .034442 (= 49), add 49 calendar days to the day that the high occurred, and you’ll arrive at the 22-Mar-01L.

Trading Days
Example 1: 24-Mar-2000H at 1552.87 (Extreme high in the S&P): Take the value of 1552.87, multiply it by 0.090170 (= 141), add 141 trading days to the day that the high occurred, and you’ll arrive at the October 18, 2000 low.

Trading Hours (7 hours per trading day)
Example 1: 21-Dec-2000L at 1254.07: Take the value of 1254.07, multiply it by .148 (= 186), add 186 hours to the hour that the low occurred, and you’ll arrive at the exact hour of the FOMC price high on January 31, 2001.

Example 2: 20-Mar-2001H at 1180.56: Take the value of 1180.56, multiply it by .021286 and again by 0.618 (= 16), add 16 hours to the hour that the high occurred, and you’ll arrive at the exact hour of the price low on March 22, 2001.

Example 3: 22-Mar-2001L at 1081.19: Take the value of 1081.19, multiply it by .021286 (= 23), add 23 hours to the hour that the low occurred, and you’ll arrive at the high on March 27, 2001.

In the Short-Term
Example 1: 22-Mar-2001L at 1081.19: Take the value of 1081.19, multiply it by .021286 X 1.618 (= 37) add 37 hours to the hour that the low occurred, and you’ll arrive at the first hour of trading on March 30, 2001 (tomorrow).

Example 2: 27-Mar-2001H at 1183.35: Take the value of 1183.35, multiply it by .021286 X.618 (= 16) add 16 hours to the hour that the high occurred, and you’ll arrive at the second hour of trading on March 30, 2001 (tomorrow).

Conclusion: I want to be alert to the first hour of trading tomorrow (+/- 2 hours) for the potential – but not the certainty – of a change in trend. Since we’ve been going down for the last two days, I would therefore look for an upside reversal tomorrow morning. If today’s low at 12:18 pm Pacific was the low, that would certainly fall within my +/- 2 hour window. As a trader, I look for confirming signals: A turn up in my 3/9/34 hour %R oscillator and a turn up in my 9 hour velocity. In addition, I have shown in the past that the primary hourly cycle in the stock market is 39.25 hours; we are presently 36 hours from the prior bottom – right in the heart the envelope.

One more thing. Crystal Ball readers are free to use and build on my research. But, let me emphasize this, and I am dead serious: I don’t want anyone to publish my work as their own – or anyone else’s work either.

Good Trading to All,

STAN HARLEY
Editor/Publisher The Harley Market Letter
Timer Digest 1998 Market Timer of the Year

Ok, if you've read all the way thru, and understand it, I sure hope it's helpful to you...
8-)

-- posted by CaptRon

Top 143. Mar 30, 2001 1:46 PM

» Bob_in_CowTown - Re: Nothing to do this weekend?

In response to message posted by CaptRon:

Ron - Thanks for the chart on pcg and yes, I can wait.

Re: NOTHING TO DO THIS WEEKEND -

I got down to Stan Harley's "SCALING FACTOR" and that reminded me that my wife and I are celebrating our 29th on April Fools Day (yes, we did get married on 04/01). We are going to spend a few days "descaling" at the spa's in Calistoga and the area).

...and yes, I was comprehending everything Harley was saying. Had my 12c out and was putting it to work. Krikee, my dura cells ran dry.

Oh well, I will go out and buy some energizers and finish the calcs when I get back on Tuesday.

BIC smile

-- posted by Bob_in_CowTown

Top 144. Mar 30, 2001 2:01 PM

» CaptRon - OT - "Kitchen sink quarter"

From Crystal Ball, a good post on the "Kitchen Sink Quarter", where co's throw all the bad news they can into one qtr to make the others better. JMHO, this is what's immediately ahead, and reg FD makes the impact greater:

"Category: General Interest
From: da_cheif (don wolanchuk)
To: wantprofits (Hari Donzi)
Date Posted: March 30, 2001 at 16:32:17
Subject: read this.....
Reference: Re: drak

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

When a football team is losing by a laughable margin, it will frequently concede the game,
replacing its starters
with the guys on the bench. The theory is that giving the subs experience -- and building
for the future -- is worth
losing by a dozen more points.

Something similar is happening in the tech world. Faced with a financial complexion that
would give acne a
proud name, companies are seizing the opportunity to write off investments, end product
lines or restructure
manufacturing.

The theory is both simple and rational. As long as the market is going to hammer us, we
might as well throw in
the kitchen sink. At least our numbers will look better in comparison a year from now.

``There's no reason to take a hit when a market is roaring along,'' says Mark Langner, an
analyst with Epoch
Partners in San Francisco. ``When things turn bad, however, tossing in the kitchen sink
along with
everything else is the way some companies choose to go.''

Consider three recent examples: In mid-February, Hewlett-Packard (HWP) announced
that it would take a
charge of $365 million, or 15 cents a share, for anticipated losses in its investment
portfolio. That
came amid a quarterly announcement of a 59 percent drop in net income for the first
quarter.

Then, last week, struggling 3Com (COMS), as part of a restructuring move aimed at
cutting expenses, said it
would jettison its Internet appliance business, code-named Audrey, and its Internet radio,
known as Kerbango.
Though the company didn't disclose its losses on the products, they had to be
considerable.

``It was a little like the Newton,'' said company spokesman Bruce Johnson, who
paraphrased the comments of
CEO Bruce Claflin. ``Everyone knows it's going to happen. But we have a responsibility
right now, and our
responsibility is to get profitable.

In a layoff announcement at almost the same time, Solectron (SLR), the Milpitas-based
contract manufacturer,
said it was taking a charge of $300 million to $400 million to realign manufacturing plants
to meet changes in
customer demands.

Of course, this kind of behavior goes way back in the annals of American business.
Banks are famous for
writing off bad loans during down periods. And companies frequently use the arrival of a
new executive as an
excuse for writing off past mistakes.

But there's something new here, in part because the investment portfolio of many tech
companies looks like,
well, the portfolio of many of the rest of us. And while accounting rules attempt to define
how these investments
should be valued, there's wiggle room, particularly in how companies value their private
investments.

I called up the CFO of a still-kicking software company to ask him about this. The CFO
wanted to remain
anonymous. But he noted that his company will write down its investment in private
companies under three
conditions: a) if his company has to invest because the private firm is running out of cash
or b) if a third party
invests at a valuation below their carrying value (otherwise known as a ``down round'') or
c) if the private
company ``fails to perform'' certain benchmarks.

The CFO's point was that the first and third criteria are essentially subjective. ``You can go
into private equity
investments and maybe revalue it, taking the hit to earnings,'' he said. ``In a bad quarter,
you might say, `Hey,
I'd rather take it now.' On the other hand, if you're just on the edge of making your
numbers, you might resist the
idea.''

What does all this mean?

Well, I don't mean to sound like a Pollyanna here. There's still plenty of bad news in the
market. And my own
soundings among venture capitalists suggest that some companies are trying to prolong
the suffering they face
in private investments.

But the willingness of companies to take the hit for bad investments and bad products
during down quarters
means that their forward comparables -- which, after all, drive a piece of market action --
will look much better.

``You know the quarter is going to stink because you've got a product line
underperforming,'' says Sandy
Harrison, an analyst with Pacific Growth Equities in San Francisco. ``You can take time to
write it off to levels
that are low. Then, at some future point, you'll be selling the product with 100 percent
gross margins.''

For those who don't know about gross margins, they're the difference between the cost of
making a good and
what the company sells it for. Take my word. One hundred percent is as good as it gets.
While companies are
unlikely to reach that, the game of lowering expectations makes it more possible."

-- posted by CaptRon

Top 145. Mar 30, 2001 2:05 PM

» CaptRon - BFC

In response to message posted by Bob_in_CowTown:

A VERY happy anniversary, Bob. I guess the joke is on the folks who though you wouldn't make it 29 years! (There's always one. Mother in law comes to mind!) Have a Bilibong and Fosters and toast to the next 29, M8! Good-on-ya...8-)

-- posted by CaptRon