Robert Drach - Nightly Business Report Market Monitor
- Kirk
- Kirk
- way2go
- Kirk
- vhehn
- Q_out
- Q_out
- JenL_2
- SteveT
- Slick
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» Kirk - Robert Drach 1/5/02
In response to message posted by Slick:You posted this here http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...
Author: Slick
Date: January 5, 2002 11:21 AM
Subject: Re: NBR
In response to message posted by Joey86:
Hi Joey:
I enjoy hearing Robert Drach's view of the market, even though he has that "Hardy-Har-Har style" ( oh dear...oh my ). Apparently , he's up 40 % the lst 2 years...impressive ! He does like to " keep the crap game moving " . 
Here's the transcript for those who might be interested:
http://www.nightlybusiness.org/trnscrpt....
1/04/02: Market Monitor- Robert Drach, Editor, "Drach Weekly Research Report"
PAUL KANGAS: My guest Market Monitor this week is Robert Drach, editor and publisher of the "Drach Weekly Research Report." Welcome back to NBR, Bob, good to see you.
ROBERT DRACH, EDITOR, "DRACH WEEKLY RESEARCH REPORT": Thank you, Paul, good to be with you again.
KANGAS: Here we are three days into the new year and three days of gains on Wall Street. Do you think it's just a temporary January effect rally, or the start of something big?
DRACH: I think this is the January effect category. I think it's your last push off the September lows. When this one peaks out here in mid to late January, you'll get another correction on the down side.
KANGAS: So the institutional investors are just putting some fresh money to work on the buy side, is that it?
DRACH: Yes, as far as I can see, it's the only support mechanism it has at this juncture.
KANGAS: And you're not too impressed with what you see in the way of economic reports about this comeback in the economy supposedly?
DRACH: The earnings projections we see aren't that great. I think your entry point for this year is going to be after the first correction, 8 to 10 percent down from whatever level that is.
KANGAS: OK. But you think the year overall will be on the up side?
DRACH: Probably because it's rare the market loses three years in a row. It's only happened twice before this century.
KANGAS: Well, we have a graphic here that shows your results in the year 2001 compared to the major indices, and you're the only one that had a gain of 7 percent in our model "NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT" portfolio. Congratulations, a very nice performance.
DRACH: Well, I didn't think it was going to be an easy year. I thought it would be profitable, because they all are...
KANGAS: But let's go back over the last two years, 2000 and 2001, and see how you did. Drach NBR model portfolio up 42 percent, all the majors way down. Once again, very impressive, Bob.
DRACH: Well, thank you. But 2000 was quite easy. And it shows the value of staying with high quality stocks that are relatively discounted.
KANGAS: OK. Now, do we have that same situation now? I know you don't like the market until we see an 8 percent correction or so, but are you doing anything now on the buy side?
DRACH: Well, there's always something relatively discounted with the caveat that it's not the best entry point. Your high quality drugs would be the top group, the Schering-Plough (SGP), Merck (MRK), Pfizer (PFE) types, and maybe in the insurance category, American International Group (AIG) and AFLAC (AFL). But the big difference between the market now and say September was that you don't have professional price support here.
KANGAS: When you say professional price support, for those viewers that aren't familiar with what you consider professional price support, explain what that is.
DRACH: Well, it's certainly not your conventional institutions. I'm talking about corporate insiders and exchange members, primarily the specialist system on the New York Stock Exchange.
KANGAS: And right now they're not doing any buying that impresses you?
DRACH: There's no support. It's not inhibited selling or anything, it's just that's support lacking. And also next year I think it's going to be erratic because you're not going to get Federal Reserve support. You should have interest rates increase. The Federal Reserve spent too many interest rate bullets too soon, so you're just not going to have a stellar market, I think. You're going to have an erratic pattern that will be easily tradable and I think it will be easily profitable. I think the side will easily make double digits next year - this year.
KANGAS: And when we see an 8 to 10 percent correction sometime this spring, apparently, is when you think it's going to happen, that's the real entry point to come in with all of your ammunition, correct?
DRACH: I would think so, yes.
KANGAS: And at that time we can't predict what the stocks that are the best bargains are, but right now you do like some of the depressed pharmaceuticals?
DRACH: Yes, you always want to move to depressed high quality stocks. That gives you consistent profit ability. That's why the side's so far ahead is profit consistency.
KANGAS: When you were - we just have 30 seconds left. When you were with us last July 27 you gave us Hewlett-Packard (HWP), Interpublic Group (IPG), GE (GE), Walgreen (WAG) and Emerson Radio (MSN). Every one of those is up at this stage except for GE. Do you still like them all?
DRACH: I would switch over to the ones that are relatively depressed, constantly rotate. But GE I would still find in that category as acceptable.
KANGAS: Acceptable but the rest of them have had their major move?
DRACH: I'd take the money where you can get it and move over to what's relatively depressed, in that way you get the consistent profitability. That's why the side's sold.
KANGAS: All right, so pick and choose, be selective, that's your motto, I guess.
DRACH: Absolutely, and stay high quality.
KANGAS: Thanks very much, Bob, my guest, Robert Drach, editor and publisher of the "Drach Weekly Research Report."
I guess that is why he is selling a "weekly" newsletter... he's light on his feet.
Slick
-- posted by Kirk
» Kirk - More 2000/2001 Returns
Kirk on the Brinker thread Here: http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...
Author: Kirk
Date: January 5, 2002 12:08 PM
Subject: Re: More 2000/2001 Returns
In response to message posted by JeffChristy:
I would like to compare Brinker to Lou Holland on WSW. Mr. Holland is up 40% since 1 January 2000. He was up 28% for the year 2000 and up 12% for 2001. Brinker beats many but he is hardly the best out there.
NBR's Robert Drach is very above board. He posts his portfolio trades on the NBR website and you can actually follow along. He was on NBR last night and Slick posted a summry of his interview http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/69251/233-242#message_10> here
Key:
Market Monitor- Robert Drach, Editor, "Drach Weekly Research Report" is up 40% the last two years!
He does what I do, just much better. That is buy high quality stocks, sell some or all when they get expensive and buy them when they are cheap. He has a much wider universe of stocks he follows whereas I am mostly tech and banking so he has found much better bargains since my area was well out of favor the past two years.
Drach is a fun to listen to:
DRACH: The earnings projections we see aren't that great. I think your entry point for this year is going to be after the first correction, 8 to 10 percent down from whatever level that is.
KANGAS: But let's go back over the last two years, 2000 and 2001, and see how you did. Drach NBR model portfolio up 42 percent, all the majors way down. Once again, very impressive, Bob.
DRACH: Well, thank you. But 2000 was quite easy. And it shows the value of staying with high quality stocks that are relatively discounted.
KANGAS: And at that time we can't predict what the stocks that are the best bargains are, but right now you do like some of the depressed pharmaceuticals?
DRACH: Yes, you always want to move to depressed high quality stocks. That gives you consistent profit ability. That's why the side's so far ahead is profit consistency.
I don't know how many times I tell people it is not about market timing buy buying quality and not over paying.
Drach is good... One of the best I've seen. Looks like he'd about match Lou Holland of WSW.
-- posted by Kirk
» way2go - Re: Robert Drach 1/5/02
In response to message posted by Kirk:http://www.nightlybusiness.org/drach.htm does this mean he has only sold winners and only counts the winners?? seems he is holding some downs-- do those count?
-- posted by way2go
» Kirk - Re: Re: Robert Drach 1/5/02
In response to message posted by way2go:I think you have to put his list of trades into something like Quicken and then see how it all adds up. I can't make heads or tails of his running totals...
I wonder if you could email him and get a copy of his Quicken data file?
-- posted by Kirk
» Q_out - Re: Re: Robert Drach 1/5/02
In response to message posted by way2go:Drach narrows his Wall Street universe to those stocks that have a consistent record of growing earnings. He knows that sectors tend to grow in and out of favor. He buys these on dips and does not seem to set stop-loss points. But he does take profits when the stocks go up by 10% or more. Quite often the rise happens rapidly and he is quick to book the profit. Sometimes the stock continues down for a long while. He continues to hold the stock until he can exit with a 10% profit or more. As a result, he almost always holds more losers than winners at any point in time.
There is an aspect of market timing that triggers specific buy and sell times. It can be approximated by determining whether the NYSE breadth has been positive or negative in 3 of the past 4 weeks, but that would be too simple. When breadth is negative, he looks for those stocks on his list of consistent rising earnings to buy on the dip in price. When breadth is positive, he sells the stock he holds which is the most up (but at least 10%).
<img src="/files/mysites/qout/bhoestarts.gif" width=53 height=34 align="left">
Q_out
DISCLAIMER: My words and observations are general in nature, and are not meant as specific investment advice. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.
-- posted by Q_out
» Q_out - Re: Re: Re: Robert Drach 1/5/02
In response to message posted by Q_out:Going back and consulting my notes from August '99, Drach limits his view of the market to about 90 stocks on his master list. Those 90 stocks demonstrate earnings predictability, earnings growth, dividend protection and growth, and liquidity. He records the P/E ratio for each stock weekly.
In order to buy any stock, 75% or more of all the stocks on the master list must have declined in P/E from their level 4 weeks ago.
In order to sell a stock, 75% or more of all the stocks on the master list must have increased their P/E from 4 weeks ago.
Drach uses forward P/E ratios, but because all the stocks on his master list have earnings predictability, trailing P/E ratios will work just as well.
<img src="/files/mysites/qout/bhoestarts.gif" width=53 height=34 align="left">
Q_out
DISCLAIMER: My words and observations are general in nature, and are not meant as specific investment advice. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.
-- posted by Q_out
» JenL_2 - More ON Robert Drach
from "fav stock market guru" thread:Author: Slick
Date: January 5, 2002 12:09 PM
Subject: More ON Robert Drach
http://www.nbr.com/ ( click finacial tools at left)
Interesting, that NBR before the interview , posts all of Drach's portfolio , with performance and trade data from inception.( hmm...I wonder if this policy was started after Bobbrinker was on )
Of his current positions, most are underwater ! And , of further note, his average holding time ( for a stock ) is 133 days (!) and is apparently looking for that elusive 10% rise. This guy is really light on his feet .
Slick
-- posted by JenL_2
» Slick - Re: Robert Drach 1/5/02
In response to message posted by SteveT:Hi Steve:
I sent your well taken point to Mr Drach's e-mail address, and will relay any info he gives me. I'd be nice if he posted his remarks , personally. We'll see.
BTW...his address is DRACHMKT@aol.com
Slick
-- posted by Slick
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