Robert Drach - Nightly Business Report Market Monitor: 2005 Results for "Basic Timing" Model Portfolio

» Kirk - 2005 Results for "Basic Timing" Model Portfolio

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They gave the 2005 results on NBR tonight. The return they gave for the S&P500 did not include dividends, which I have added to the table they presented on TV.

S&P500                        +3.0%
S&P500 with dividends         +4.8% 
NBR/Drach Model               +1.4% 
Nasdaq Composite              +1.4%
Dow Industrials               -0.6% 
Kirk's Newsletter Portfolio  +13.2%

I was surprised that Robert Drach had a "not so good year" which proves even the best don't out perform every year. That is why you need to look at the long term record.

Longer term, the NBR/Drach model portfolio is much better with over 100 points over the NASDAQ composite:

Relative performance since portfolio initiation (5/5/95)

 
NBR/Drach Model       + 275% 
Nasdaq Composite      + 168%
Dow Industrial        + 150%
S&P 500               + 144%

NBR/Drach Model Current Stock vs. Cash Allocation
$ 1,787,350.60 (91%) stock. $174,996.54(9%) cash equivalents.

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For 2005, "Kirk's Newsletter Portfolio" was Up 13.2% vs. QQQQ up 1.2% vs. DJIA down 0.6% vs. S&P500 Up 4.8%

As of 12/31/05 the Total Return for "Kirk's Newsletter Portfolio" since 12/31/98 is Up 197% while the S&P500 only up 12%!!! & NASDAQ only up 1%!!! (my portfolio beta is roughly equal to that of QQQQ.)

What should be quite clear is a “buy and forget” market strategy using the DOW, S&P500 or NASDAQ would have under performed holding money funds over the past seven years while my newsletter portfolio nearly tripled every dollar invested

-- posted by Kirk