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Ralph Acampora
This archived discussion is "read only". « Previous 1 2 Next » » Gadfly - Ralph interview- Ralph is plugging his new book, "The Fourth MegaMrkt.", where he predicts dow 22,000 by 2011, a modest 6-7% per yr. Page 6 he warns of major bear mrkt. pullbacks within context of Mega Mrkt. Current bear is short term pull back. Last week Nas will be like 70's bear. It won't come back After each war there has been a Mega Mrkt. The Four elements of good research,1.economics, Stock picks. There is life after technology. Next yr. tech will have attractive multiples and Gad- -- posted by Gadfly » Kirk - Just turned bearish? http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk...
ACOMPORA JUST TURNED BEARISH...LMAAZOFF......TO DO MOON....AND ADIOS to u...lol -- posted by Kirk » Kirk - 04-29-2002 Daily Technical Outlook Daily Technical Outlook04-29-2002 10:22 ET Brought to you by Ralph Acampora. http://home.prudential.com/investments/o... This outlook is based on Ralph Acampora's technical analysis and constitutes opinions which are subject to change. Contact a Prudential Securities Financial Advisor with any questions you may have. Remember that past performance is no guarantee of future results and there is no assurance that his forecasts will be attained. We Are Returning to the Good Old Days.
Near-Term Our first objective this year was to identify a “quality rally”; and once we attained it, we could make several observations:
Stocks Within the DJIA That We Believe Have Experienced A “Quality Rally”:
-Dow Jones: 9,580
Cincinnati Financial Corp. (CINF-46.20, not rated by Prudential Securities Equity Research)*. Uptrend support at 43.00 (Print below=Trader’s sell-stop point). Initial objective-52.00+. (Added 04/12/02-45.75).
None
We see many cross currents that are impacting the market these days; in our belief, they range from accounting procedures to war tensions. Thus, we believe, one must expect sudden swings in price. Yet we still remain sanguine on the underlying tone of the stock market. For us, there is a healthy rotation taking place; it appears investors continue moving away from the “new economy” stocks of the 1990s to the “old economy” stocks of the pre-1998/2000 bull phase. Our positive NYSE breadth story continues as more consumer related stocks move higher. Careful stock selection, we feel, is the way to invest; and we believe there are many attractive individual issues to be uncovered. Major Averages-Primary and Secondary Parameters Source: Prudential Securities
The market’s strength in early March is seen as confirmation that last September’s low was the final bottom. The consolidation between November and February is now looked upon as a successful retest of that September low and, in our opinion, it now sets the stage for more meaningful upside progress. The real story is market breadth. We have been very encouraged by the progress of the NYSE Advance/Decline Line since March 2000. It suggests that the old economy names will continue to lead as the list broadens to incorporate more new sectors. Our original Fearless Forecast called for a slight new high in the Dow Industrials by year end. We still maintain this opinion. Index Low Range High Range Source: Bridge Data Service. Of course there is no assurance these targets will be attained. +: Prudential Securities Incorporated and/or its affiliates have managed or co-managed a public offering of securities *: Prudential Securities Incorporated makes a primary over-the-counter market. #: Prudential Securities Incorporated acts as a specialist that makes a market in the security. At any given time, the specialist may have a position, either long or short, in the security, and, as a result of the associated specialist’s function as a market maker, such specialist may be on the opposite side of orders executed on the floor of the national securities exchange. Prudential Securities Incorporated (or one of its affiliates) or their officers, directors, analysts, or employees may have positions in securities or commodities referred to herein, and may, as principal or agent, buy and sell such securities or commodities. -- posted by Kirk » Kirk - 10/7/02 Monday Technical Commentary .For example, take a look at Intel (INTC-$17.31-Buy). In my opinion, this stock is going the way of Sun Microsystems (SUNW-$2.42-Buy) to the $2.00 to $4.00 range. WOW! Ralph Acampora Managing Director, Global Equity Research Today I wanted to start where I left off last Monday and compare today's market with a couple of previous markets. In 1974, the S&P 500 formed a double bottom, with the second bottom being a higher bottom. This bottom was accompanied by a crossover on the momentum chart, which eventually led to a breakout on the index. Also notice the bottom formed in 1998. Again we had a double bottom, a crossover on the momentum chart, and a breakout on the chart, thus putting the bull market back in effect. Today's market is not giving us the signs we need to see to support a bottom. Last Friday the S&P 500 came down and while it did not close below the intra-day low, we have yet to see a crossover on the momentum chart. Hopefully in the next couple of days we will see this momentum shift. I don't think this will happen, but this is what we need to have happen in order to secure a double bottom. If you look at the COMP, the NDX, the SOX, the Russell 2000, none of these indexes are showing any signs of a double bottom. Now if you look at the Russell 2000, last September we were very oversold. Off this oversold level we were able to obtain a seven-month rally. If you look at the most recent bottom of the Russell 2000, we were only able to achieve a five-week rally before rolling over and moving to a lower low. You are also seeing this in individual stocks. For example, take a look at Intel (INTC-$17.31-Buy). In my opinion, this stock is going the way of Sun Microsystems (SUNW-$2.42-Buy) to the $2.00 to $4.00 range. Also, look at Centex Construction (CXP-$36.60-NR). Everyone is talking about a housing boom. We'll forget about the boom. Stocks in this group are starting to roll over. You also heard our Chief Strategist tell us you cannot have a bull market without the financials. Well, if you look at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter (MWD-$31.03-BUY) or Fannie Mae (FNM-$63.15-BUY), these stocks are in the mist of major breakdown. The bottom line is that 75% of the S&P 500 groups are either below their July lows or within 10% of their lows, so the picture is not very good. I also went through the 30 Dow stocks to try and get some kind of target. On the upside you could possibly see at most a rally to the 8900 area. On the down side you could very easily see an initial move to 6500 and then potentially 5500. Disclaimer: The research analyst, a member of the team, or a member of the research analyst's household has a financial interest in Sun Microsystems. Prudential Securities has no knowledge of any material conflict of interest involving the companies mentioned in this report and our firm. Prudential Securities Incorporated makes a market in the shares of Intel Corp.; and Sun Microsystems. Prudential Securities Incorporated and/or its subsidiaries have managed or comanaged a public offering of securities for Morgan Stanley in the past 12 months, have received compensation for investment banking services from this company in the past 12 months, or expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next 3 months. The research analyst or a member of the team does not have an actual material conflict of interest relative to any stock mentioned in this report. The research analyst has not received compensation that is based upon (among other factors) the firm's investment banking revenues as it relates to any stock mentioned in this report. The research analyst, a member of the team, or a member of the household does not serve as an officer, director, or advisory board member of any stock mentioned in this report. When we assign a Buy rating, we mean that we believe that a stock of average or below average risk offers the potential for total return of 15% or more over the next 12 to 18 months. For higher risk stocks, we may require a higher potential return to assign a Buy rating. When we reiterate a Buy rating, we are stating our belief that our price target is achievable over the next 12 to 18 months. When we assign a Sell rating, we mean that we believe that a stock of average or above average risk has the potential to decline 15% or more over the next 12 to 18 months. For lower risk stocks, a lower potential decline may be sufficient to warrant a Sell rating. When we reiterate a Sell rating, we are stating our belief that our price target is achievable over the next 12 to 18 months. A Hold rating signifies our belief that a stock does not present sufficient upside or downside potential to warrant a Buy or Sell rating, either because we view the stock as fairly valued or because we believe that there is too much uncertainty with regard to key variables for us to rate the stock a Buy or Sell. Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources, believed to be reliable. However, such information has not been verified by us, and we do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness. Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. Prudential Securities Incorporated (or one of its affiliates or subsidiaries) or their officers, directors, analysts, employees, agents, independent contractors or consultants may have positions in securities or commodities referred to herein, and may, as principal or agent, buy and sell such securities or commodities. An employee, analyst, officer, agent, independent contractor, a director, or a consultant of Prudential Securities Incorporated, its affiliates or its subsidiaries may serve as a director for companies mentioned in this report. Please contact your Sales Representative with any questions about this research. -- posted by Kirk » mitelo - Re: 10/7/02 Monday Technical Commentary In response to message posted by Kirk:--- R.A.: "Could see 8900...or...could see 5500..." As always, he is most helpful. His best was the call for the NASDAQ to go to 6000 when it crossed 5000. Can you believe they waste ink on this stuff? -- posted by mitelo » Kirk - Re: Re: 10/7/02 Monday Technical Commentary In response to message posted by mitelo:Chuckle... Yeah, you caught him! R.A. 10/7/02: "Could see 8900...or...could see 5500..." Currently, the DJIA is at 7424 so he is saying it could go up 1,500pts or down 1,900pts so he is leaning to bearish. BTW, there is a "slight" difference between Intel and Sun. Intel is a leader, pays a dividend and it is making money. Sun has none of these factors in its favor. http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=intc+sunw&d... Oh yes, SUN has a market cap of $8B now. Intel plans to SPEND about $5B on capital equipment this year. If Intel were worried about a Sun-like decline, it would slash this spending and let AMAT, NVLS, TER, ASML, LRCX, etc. go the way of Sunw. Of course, that is why those companies are slashing their workforce to match the waterfall decline in their share prices. -- posted by Kirk » Kirk - Acampora Sees Stock Rally to Year-End .Acampora Sees Stock Rally to Year-End http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml...
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks could have scraped bottom last month and are poised to rally to year-end, based on several bullish signals from across financial markets, says Prudential Securities' star analyst Ralph Acampora. But the top technical analyst, who shot to fame in the 1990s with his famous "Dow 10,000" call, believes that stocks are still locked in a long-term bear market, or what technicians refer to as a "secular" bear market: a reverse image of the spectacular 1990s bull run. "I think we could rally to year end, and we rise 20, 25 or 30 percent, but after that we correct," Acampora told a press briefing in lower Manhattan this week. "We really have economic problems and (corporate) earnings problems." But he added: "Your next bull market could last a year." Going against conventional Wall Street views, the star analyst stunned investors when in the mid-1990s he forecast the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was entering a huge bull market. He said the gauge would climb to 7,000 from 4,500, which it did, and after that, went on to correctly forecast the gauge would go to 10,000. But he missed big when he predicted the tech-laden Nasdaq .IXIC would hit 6,000 by June 2001. BULLISH SIGNS Acampora, one of Wall Street's best know gurus, bases his market calls on technicals such as stock prices and trade volumes, unlike "fundamental" analysts, who look at how interest rates and corporate earnings impact stock prices. Among bullish technical signs, Acampora said the New York Stock Exchange Composite index .NYA likely is tracing out a so-called "Triple Bottom," when it hit lows at roughly the same level of 4,400 in July and October last year, and this March. "These are three failures to go down, and volume is falling, which means selling pressure is falling," he said. Meanwhile, the tech-packed Nasdaq Composite .IXIC may be forming a "Reverse Head and Shoulders," he said. This is formed when an index sinks then rises, followed by a steeper decline then recovery followed yet by a decline roughly of the same magnitude as the first one. The second bottom is the "head" and the first and the third are the "shoulders." This signals a declining trend will reverse. A third bullish sign, Acampora said, comes from the MACD indicator for Nasdaq which has experienced a so-called Golden Cross, formed when a near-term moving average crosses over a long-term moving average, or resistance level. This is seen as a buy signal. A moving average is an indicator tracking an index's trend by averaging its value over a period of time, say 50 days or 40 months. The MACD is a widely used tool to gauge market momentum and can help forecast uptrends or downtrends. "For the first time in two years we see momentum pick up," he said, noting this signal was spotted about two weeks ago. Still, he pointed out that the broad Standard & Poor's 500 index .SPX is still in a long-term down trend, the telltale sign that any rallies will be within a broader bear market. "What we need is the down trendline to be broken. This will be if S&P rallied above 965 and Dow broke 9,000," he said. The bullish scenario is not valid if five- and six-year lows hit in October are broken, he said. This makes the October lows major "support" at Dow 7,197, S&P 768 and Nasdaq 1,108. They stood at 8,254, 873 and 1,368 on Friday, respectively. BIOTECH, FOOTWEAR & OIL DRILLERS Of the more than 100 sectors in the S&P 500, Acampora said he likes a few like biotechnology, footwear and oil drillers. "There's no real theme in the marketplace," he added. "But there are a lot of individual issues." Acampora likes stocks like Abercrombie & Fitch ANF.N and The Gap Inc. GPS.N among retailers, and in the oil sector Apache Corp. APA.N , ConocoPhillips COP.N and Ocean Energy OEI.N . These picks are based on technicals, fundamentals and quantitative analyzes. Others include Amgen Inc. AMGN.O in biotechnology, Avon Products AVP.N in beauty products and Foundry Networks FDRY.O , in network equipment. A group that Acampora likes purely on the basis of their charts include health insurer Aetna Inc. AET.N , Web firms Amazon.com AMZN.O and Yahoo! Inc. YHOO.O and retailer Best Buy BBY.N . Among stocks he doesn't like, he named payroll services firm Automatic Data Processing ADP.N , casino operator Argosy Gaming AGY.N , and BellSouth Corp. BLS.N and SBC Communications SBC.N in telecommunications. Finally, he said he was also bullish on the basis of the so-called Presidential Cycle, named for what some believe is a link between stocks and the economy and U.S. elections. According to the Stock Trader's Almanac, there hasn't been a down year in the third year of a presidential term since 1939, when Dow fell 2.9 percent. The only big decline in such a year over the past 84 years was in the Depression year 1931. "I don't think you will have a down year this year. I think we break the August (2002) highs and then have a run," Acampora said. These levels are Dow 9,077, S&P 965 and Nasdaq 1,426. For 2005, "Kirk's Newsletter Portfolio" was Up 13.2% vs. QQQQ up 1.2% vs. DJIA down 0.6% vs. S&P500 Up 4.8% As of 12/31/05 the Total Return for "Kirk's Newsletter Portfolio" since 12/31/98 is Up 197% while the S&P500 only up 12%!!! & NASDAQ only up 1%!!! (my portfolio beta is roughly equal to that of QQQQ.) What should be quite clear is a “buy and forget” market strategy using the DOW, S&P500 or NASDAQ would have under performed holding money funds over the past seven years while my newsletter portfolio nearly tripled every dollar invested Key to my success is I pay attention to Garp. GARP stands for “Growth At a Reasonable Price.” Make sure you read my latest article: NanoViricides, Inc. [NNVC] (01/09/06) where it seems I’ve had the good fortune to highlight a stock just before it took off to more than double! -- posted by Kirk » SteveT - Knight Capital Group Announces Annual Forecast for 2006 Ralph started working for Knight last fall http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/storie... JERSEY CITY, N.J., Dec. 19 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Knight Capital Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: NITE) today announced the release of the Annual Forecast for 2006, the first report from Knight Research, a new client offering tying technical analysis with trading. Knight Research is led by Ralph J. Acampora, an Institutional Investor-ranked technical analyst who joined Knight in October from Prudential Equity Group. "History suggests that the equity market is currently in a transitional phase," Mr. Acampora said. "We believe two phenomena will impact 2006: the 'Four-Year Cycle,' characterized by a noticeable decline that usually ends with a historic low; and the recurring 'Presidential Cycle,' which manifests itself in a return of prices to realistic levels after a run-up during a presidential term's first-year 'honeymoon period.' "A potential early New Year advance in the market of approximately 5% is part of this transition that, in our opinion, will set the stage for a market decline of as much as 20% to 25% ending sometime during the second half of '06," he continued. "This major market bottom -- a classic four-year low -- would provide investors with a significant buying opportunity. As the presidential elections grow near, a new bull market will emerge with the strength to carry well into 2007 and potentially into 2008." Other highlights from the Knight Research Annual Forecast for 2006 include the following: * Technology, Energy and Financials will be the S&P 500 sector * Intermediate-term trends favor growth- over value-style investment * Crude's potent uptrend continues and the CRB index has the potential to * Gold is in a long-term secular bull trend with an upside target in the * 10-year Treasury note yield is expected to hit 5% * The U.S. Dollar Index appears headed higher from its current bottoming * Foreign markets should mirror the volatility of the U.S. market The Knight Research Annual Forecast for 2006 is available at no cost by -- posted by SteveT « Previous 1 2 Next » Please follow the guidelines set forth in the Suite101 Posting Etiquette when adding to the discussion. |
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