Jim Rogers and Paige Parker
- axolotl
- Normxxx
- axolotl
- axolotl
- JimRogers
- Jen_
- axolotl
- Jen_
- Kirk
- Normxxx
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» axolotl - "Jeemy" is so wise - all men who wear bowties
are wise. Of course, we don't know what Jeemy's finances are exactly. Actually, the Japanese have a larger debt problem than the USA, and there is Italy and some other countries that have a larger problem so far. Milton Freidman has been warning for years about the borrow and spend fed. gov. and no doubt it will eventually hit the fan. Now, Jeemy, could make a fortune right here in the USA by simply picking some of those stocks that every year have huge runups or huge falls - that's all there is to it, Jeemy.-- posted by axolotl
» axolotl - One Upmanship...........
Boone Pickens, 75 years old, is running BP Investments and is supposed to be doing super - already made more money than he did in the history of Mesa Petroleum. He is trading in the energy futures mkt. which is supposed to be the greatest casino of all time. Also, Webb-site.com is about the Asian mkts. Money to be made there by people who have the expertise.-- posted by axolotl
» axolotl - Pimco Commodiy Real Return Fund..
is apparently one of about 75 such funds - go to Morningstar and they rate Pimco fund as performance 27 out of 75 such funds -Jeemy apparently doesn't know about these? Also, Fidelity has some tech funds up 50% and even over 60% so far this year - again, it shows how important the right mkt. sector is for max return.-- posted by axolotl
» JimRogers - Re: Jim Rogers on CNBC last Friday
In response to message posted by JenL_2:Could I please use youpulicimessage of 5 April 2001 in my next book? First of all, I never "predicted" the things you said, but you obviously were wildly bullish at the top of the bubble. Commodity prices hae skyrocheteded in those years while stock prices have collapsed so you are a great example of how to invest. May I use your letter in print? After all, you posted it on a public forum 5 April 2001.
-- posted by JimRogers
» Jen_ - Re: Jim Rogers on CNBC last Friday
.In response to message posted by JimRogers:
Jim - Welcome to the Group! I think that you can publish any post from Suite 101 since it's a public discussion board. But that post wasn't mine - it several messages by Jeff Christy and Mattheduck that I copied from Kirk's thread to your thread since they were discussing your spot on CNBC....Jen
-- posted by Jen_
» axolotl - Ooooooh, Jeemy, is it really you?
You can use my posts - now about that bank in Washington D. C. that you reccommended in Barrons one time - did you get out before it went bankrupt? Also, did you ever notice that Warren Buffett doesn't write books or do television shows - instead, he just makes lotsa $$$$$$?-- posted by axolotl
» Jen_ - Jim Rogers' essay in Barron's
.This from 11/10 Barron's....
Commodities will do well for years to come
By JIM ROGERS
IT MAY HAVE BEEN Meyer Rothschild, the German banker and patriarch of the legendary House of Rothschild who, when asked how he got so rich, attributed his success to two things. He said he always bought when there was blood in the streets -- panic and chaos, at any rate – when despondency gripped the markets.
(In old man Rothschild's time, investing amid the turbulence of the Napoleonic wars, the blood was just as likely to be literal as it was to be figurative.)
Rothschild also always sold "too soon." He did not wait for enthusiasm to peak. He always knew when to get out, and he got out in time with all his money.
It's not likely that Meyer Rothschild would be buying U.S. stocks these days, since he always waited for serious despair. After all, many on Wall Street are still raking in big money, employment there is down only slightly, stocks are not cheap by historical measures, and mutual funds are still thriving. He would probably point out that Japanese mutual funds have lost 95% of their asset value since 1990; that is more like real blood in the streets.
<img src="http://www.suite101.com/files/mysites/je..." width=170 height=221 align="left">Old Meyer Rothschild, if he were around today, would have moved his investments to commodities, after having gotten out of stocks years ago.
Throughout history, there have been bull markets in raw materials every 20-30 years. There have been long periods when stocks did well while raw materials did horribly -- the 1980s and 1990s, for example.
The late 1960s and the 1970s saw the reverse, with commodities booming and stocks declining.
From 1906 to the early 1920s stocks did nothing while commodities boomed. It may sound radical, but it has occurred repeatedly. These cycles always have occurred as supply and demand patterns have shifted. Everyone invested in stocks in the 1980s and 1990s, but little money went into productive capacity for natural resources. There was a glut after the great commodities booms of the 1970s, so no one was calling to invest in sugar plantations or lead mines or offshore drilling rigs.
Natural resources have been in a bear market for about 25 years now (e.g. sugar peaked in 1973, oil in 1980, etc.).
Declining markets attract little in the way of increased productive capacity, and this commodities bear market has been no different. Virtually no one has built an offshore drilling rig, or opened a lead mine, or developed a sugar plantation during the 1980s and 1990s. Quite the opposite: Productive equipment has deteriorated, been cannibalized, or scrapped while other capacity has closed.
Demand has continued growing worldwide, and eventually it will exceed supply, which has been flat for years. Asia already has become a huge buyer; China is now one of the world's largest importers.
Prices have been held down by inventory liquidation. The stockpiles built up because of the carry-over from the previous bull market with its hoarding mentality have been liquidated, leading to low inventories on the basis of stocks versus consumption. For example, the percentage ratio of foodstuff inventories to annual consumption reached records of about 35% in the 1980s. The ratio is in the low teens now.
<img src="/files/mysites/jen14/jim rogers index.gif" width=236 height=303 align="right"> We now face a classic change in commodities markets. Raw materials supplies and demands are out of whack again, and inventories are down. Commodities will do well for years to come, while stocks, recovering from their recent bubble, will do little. We now see long term double and triple bottoms in commodities even if the world economy slows.
Remember, the 1970s saw tremendous rises in raw material prices, despite economic stagnation, as supply and demand corrected imbalances.
An occasional argument heard for the proposition that natural resource prices will never rise again is "technology." But the world has experienced repeated dramatic breakthroughs throughout history, yet these breakthroughs have not prevented periodic, multiyear commodity bull markets.
We have seen faster transportation, communication, and productive advancements before, in railroads, steam ships, radio, telephone, electricity, planes, etc. None of them kept commodity prices down forever.
The hydrocarbon industry of the 1960s and 1970s is a recent example. In the mid-1960s, drilling below 5,000 feet or offshore was almost impossible. An explosion of technological advancements led to 25,000-foot wells and offshore development worldwide. The Hughes diamond bit drill lead to unthinkable drilling efficiency. Yet oil prices rose 1,500% in that 15-year period.
Commodity investing gets a bad rap, because everyone knows of people getting wiped out in pork bellies or soybeans or whatever. The reality is that the horror stories are of people buying on thin margin. One can buy $20,000 of corn and post $20,000, just as one can when buying Cisco stock. In fact, inadequate margin in the stock market has wiped out more people in recent years than in the commodity markets.
The new commodity bull market has started, but few realize it yet, just as few recognized that a new bull market in stocks had started in the 1980s. My commodity index (see chart) has risen more than 100% since the end of 1998, when my wife Paige and I left on our three-year drive around the world.
The government, Wall Street, and the media keep telling us that prices are not rising, but one can go over to the commodity pages to check reality. In fact, commodity indices have far outperformed stocks, bonds, currencies, and real estate since 1998. War and the printing of money just ensure that the commodity boom will last even longer.
The Federal Reserve's new official policy is to drive prices higher. It's not good for the country, but it's great for commodities.
But it will not last forever. Someday, probably several years from now, we will have to sell our commodities and go back to stocks. Merrill Lynch no longer has commodity brokers because it is such a bad business. When Merrill Lynch goes back into the commodity business and CNBC starts broadcasting from the soybean pits in Chicago, sell out.
Jim Rogers is a former hedge-fund manager and private investor. This essay, reprinted with his permission, is adapted from his latest book, Adventure Capitalist, published by Random House. subscribe to WSJ & Barron's Online @ http://www.wsj.com
....Jen
-- posted by Jen_
» Kirk - FOX Quote: Short MSFT
.On 3/27/04 I noted on paper that Jimmy Rogers said "Short MSFT. It is never going to go up."
I want to get rid of that piece of paper and make the note here to track the progress of his short at $25ish......
<img src=http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Sharp...>
Oops!
I don't watch that Saturday Fox show often so he might have said to cover MSFT since that proclimation, but I felt it was strong enough at the time to actually write it down!
-- posted by Kirk
» Normxxx - Bull Runs in Commodities
The Bull Runs in Commodities
That's the belief of Investment Biker author Jim Rogers, who recommends coffee and sugar futures, instead of stocks and bonds.
By Jim Rogers | NOVEMBER 2, 2004
For the next decade, the best investment action will be in commodities. That's the view of Jim Rogers -- famous for Investment Biker, a chronicle of his motorcycle trip around the world exploring far-off lands and economies. He has also written Adventure Capitalist, another combination of travelogue and investment guide, and his most recent book is Hot Commodities.
When it comes to stocks and bonds, Rogers says, "There will not be any great bear or bull period like there was in the 1980s and 1990s." he says. His pessimism also extends to the U.S. dollar, which he thinks will be in a decline for the next 20 years, with great volatility for all currencies in the coming decade.
The commodities Rogers says he would buy today are coffee, sugar, and perhaps cotton. For income in the difficult period he sees ahead, he suggests short-term interest-bearing paper -- he expects interest rates to be rising around the world because of a period of stagflation similar to the '70s.
These were a few of the points he made in an investing chat presented Oct. 28 by BusinessWeek Online on America Online, in response to questions from the audience and from Jack Dierdorff and Karyn McCormack of BW Online. Following are edited excerpts from this chat. A complete transcript is available from BusinessWeek Online on AOL at keyword: BW Talk.
Q: Jim, based on your world view, what's your take on the markets right now?
A: Well, the bond market has now peaked. It peaked in 2003 and will be in a bear market for 15 to 20 years, with rallies of course. The U.S. stock market will fluctuate up and down for the next 10 to 20 years. There will not be any great bear or bull period like there was in the 1980s and 1990s.
On the nearer term, I expect the years 2005 and 2006 to be difficult years in the U.S. stock market. That would extend to most Western stock markets as well. If you want to be in a bull market, you should invest in commodities. That's where we'll have a bull market for the next 10 to 20 years. The currency market -- I would suggest that people sell the U.S. dollar because it will be in decline for the next 20 years.
Q: Today's news of China's unexpectedly raising its key interest rate knocked down commodities prices and stocks. Is the commodities bull just about over -- or would you still invest in them at this point?
A: In every bull market there are many consolidations along the way. Commodities have been very hot for the past five years or so, so we're well overdue for a consolidation. I expect things to get worse in China. I expect there to be a hard landing.
But if you see the cover of BusinessWeek next year saying "Turmoil in China," reach for the phone and buy all the commodities you can and all the China [holdings] you can, because that will be your next great buying opportunity, if it happens that way. I'm not selling my commodities or my China [holdings], although I do expect further consolidation in both.
Q: It's my opinion that Bretton Woods is on the verge of collapse. What do you think will take its place?
A: I concur. I also concur that the U.S. dollar will suffer during this period. I would expect there to be a decade of great volatility in currencies around the world -- and perhaps even exchange controls in the U.S., eventually. I don't know what will take its place. I don't even see a currency that will replace the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency at the moment -- perhaps if things get really desperate, people may leap to gold for a while, but gold isn't something that can permanently solve the world's problems.
Q: Will this country be able to get rid of its debt? Are we heading for another Depression?
A: No country in the world that has gotten itself into this kind of debt situation has ever in history gotten out without a crisis or a semi-crisis. The same will happen in the U.S., unfortunately. And even then, we will not solve our debt problems. When England went from being the richest, most powerful country in the world, the situation declined for over three generations. We have entered a period like that as well.
Q: Going to China -- investment ideas to look for?
A: Well, it's too early to buy shares in China. I would wait for a hard landing next year. But start looking around and doing your homework while you're there. I don't know what's going to go down the most as China retrenches.
Q: You had mentioned a housing bubble about a year ago -- what do you think now?
A: Well, there's no question that there was and is a housing bubble in some parts of the country. It has already started leveling off and/or declining in some places. In others, it's still hot. Financial areas such as Massachusetts will certainly suffer housing losses as the bubble pops. Commodity areas such as Iowa will have nice housing markets for several years. The bubble is not everywhere and will not continue everywhere. It just depends on the location.
Q: Are you still high on international investing?
A: Yes. I'm high on investing in wherever the opportunities are, and that's often internationally. Therefore, yes, one should never limit one's investments to one country because you will miss great opportunities.
Q: Where would you look for income/yield?
A: That's a great question. I would not own bonds anywhere in the world unless it were a very special situation. I would keep my money in short-term interest-bearing paper and suffer a temporary lower income because rates will be rising in most of the world.
Q: Can one be a long-term buy-and-hold investor and make money, or does one need to be a trader?
A: Well, if you find the right instrument, the right security, then yes, you can be a buy-and-hold. But in my view, the next 10 to 20 years in the U.S. stock market, that will not be a satisfactory way to invest unless you find the few securities that might do well even in a period like that. The investors who'll do well are the ones who can buy low and sell when things rally and repeat the process throughout the decade.
Q: What commodities would be ripe for investing now, if any?
A: Oh, if I were going to buy a couple today, I would probably buy coffee and sugar, maybe cotton.
Q: How does an individual investor go about investing in cotton?
A: You can buy cotton futures -- it's very simple. I urge you not to do it unless you know a lot about cotton. I urge you not to do it on thin margin unless you know a lot about what you're doing.
Q: What's your outlook for gold and gold stocks?
A: I own some of both. I am less optimistic about gold than I am about many commodities.
Q: Does the energy sector still have a significant upside left?
A: Well, oil is overdue for a correction. But the price of oil will be much higher over the next few years. The surprise will be how high energy prices stay and how high they go.
Q: What do you think natural gas will do? What do you think of natural gas royalty stocks?
A: Natural gas will continue to go higher over the next few years. The question concerning natural gas royalty stocks is the status of their reserves. If they're not replenishing their reserves, the income will dry up as the reserves dry up.
Q: How about investing in traveling around the world?
A: It's a great experience. I urge everyone to do it. It's a wonderful way to find out what's really happening in a country and a wonderful way to find investments.
Q: From your travels, what countries did you find most intriguing for investment?
A: China, Canada, Angola, Australia, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Japan, New Zealand, and Bolivia.
Q: Why wouldn't interest rates come down if economies are slowing?
A: Because there is inflation in the world, and inflation will be getting worse. We'll have a period of stagflation, just as we did in the 1970s.
Q: Would utilities be a good investment in stagflation?
A: Not normally, because the costs of building new plants will rise dramatically. And they normally cannot get rate increases as rapidly as prices rise. However, in the next 10 years, there will certainly be a shortage of utility capacity in much of the world. So they'll be better this time around than last time.
Q: Are you shorting the U.S. dollar?
A: I'm not shorting the U.S. dollar, but I am moving money out of the U.S. dollar into other currencies. At this precise time, in fact, the U.S. dollar is probably overdue for a rally. So I certainly would not be shorting it now, or this week.
Q: What about water shortages? Our generation or next?
A: No, they're already occurring in our generation in various parts of the world. Those shortages will continue to get worse. For example, in the Southwestern part of the U.S. or in the area east of the Red Sea and other areas, if you can find a way to purify water, pump it, or move it to the needed areas, you'll make a fortune.
Q: I'm wondering about soybeans and Bunge (BG). What's your take?
A: Well, I'm optimistic about most agricultural products, including soybeans. Bunge is not a grower of agricultural products, but a processor and handler of commodities. The growers will do better, but people like Bunge have traditionally done well also.
Q: What's your preferred approach to commodity investments -- futures, commodity company stocks, other?
A: Futures nearly always do better than stocks. A recent Yale study showed that one would have done three times as well investing in commodities rather than commodity stocks.
Q: Is silver a good investment now?
A: I own silver. I expect to make more in other commodities, but I do own silver.
Q: If you had to put $5 million to work, what would your asset allocation be?
A: Commodities and foreign currencies. And sometime this fall or winter, I would sell financial stocks short in the U.S.
Q: What about oil stocks?
A: Well, I own some oil stocks. I do not own U.S. oil stocks, I own international oil stocks. There probably will be a better time to buy them later as oil consolidates.
Q: What's the best way to invest in coal? Would you?
A: The only way I know to invest in coal is through coal shares, and I do expect coal to do well over the next several years. If you buy a coal share, make sure it has big reserves.
Q: Where should the average 401(k) investor keep his money?
A: At the moment, I would be keeping it in money-market funds.
The contents of this letter/report does not necessarily reflect the opinions or viewpoint of normxxx. They are provided for informational/educational purposes only.
The content of this message is not to be construed as constituting market or investment advice. It is intended for educational purposes only. Individuals should consult with their own advisors for specific investment advice.
-- posted by Normxxx
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