Doug Fabian - the Mav

Top 98. Oct 20, 2003 10:55 AM

» Kirk - Re: Doug's Million

In response to message posted by jrs749:

Thanks for the input and welcome to our group!

08/03/03 $500,000
08/15/03 $480,840
09/12/03 $432,098
09/30/00 $468,000 - yes, he really shows 2000 not 2003 on his site!

yet the daily update still shows $432,098 as of 9/12/03???

http://dougsmillion.com/

anyone have a more recent update to add to my table above?

-- posted by Kirk

Top 99. Oct 20, 2003 10:57 AM

» jrs749 - Doug's Million

I'd love to hear a critique from a current "Doug's Million" subscriber.

-- posted by jrs749

Top 100. Oct 28, 2003 6:48 PM

» snaimon - Update 10/28/03 $395,000

What I'm Doing

10/28/03
Doug's Million is a journey. Along the way I hope to prove a few points. I want to show the world that extraordinary growth can be attained using mutual funds and by having access to a wide range of innovative products. By doing so, you can make money no matter what the US market is doing. And finally by following simple rules for buying and selling, you can capture gains and minimize losses.

Here are the lessons I've learned so far:

1) Personal opinions about the market can set back your performance and cause you to miss opportunities. I made a lot of money by shorting the Nasdaq 100 in 2002. I've lost a lot of money shorting the Nasdaq 100 in 2003. This index may be over- valued, it may be ripe for a big fall, but it can still go up despite these conditions. When the primary trend is up, you must stick with it until it changes. The last couple weeks were the worst in the history -- albeit in its infancy stage -- of my Doug's Million Dollar portfolio. How bad? I'm on margin, in a leveraged bear fund and stock prices are moving higher. "Do as I say, not as I do" has never been a more important lesson than it is right now. My short position has fallen 21% (including my margin account) in the last 10 trading days, giving me a -25% performance since I began my journey to double my money back on Aug. 1. So, why do I keep holding onto it? Doubling my money is a lofty goal, one that requires taking risks that I ordinarily wouldn't take -- certainly risks I would not take with subscribers' money.

2) Leverage is a powerful tool. It can enhance and diminish your investment performance quickly. When using leverage you must be almost certain of the short-term direction and cover your mistakes quickly because a leveraged fund can really move fast. One day can make a big difference. A week on the right side can be huge. So, what's my pain threshold? I'm not willing to wait until the Cubs win a World Series to sell my position. I'll take on risk, but not quite that much. In retrospect, there is a lesson I'd like to share with all of you that I've learned in the last few weeks -- one that I hope will not come the hard way: If you own a fund on margin, sell it as soon as the trade starts going against you. It could be a costly lesson for me; one I hope you never make.

There will be many more lessons learned along the way and I'm not afraid to make mistakes with my own money. What I have to commit to is not making the same mistake twice. My goal is not to make any mistakes with VIP Investors money, but to use my own as the guinea pig.

If you'd like to follow a plan based on the same strategies and fast-moving funds as in Doug's Million -- without nearly the risk -- sign up for our VIP Investor service by clicking on the link at the right top of this page.

============================
You know the link.

Stan

-- posted by snaimon

Top 101. Oct 28, 2003 7:13 PM

» Kirk - Re: Update 10/28/03 $395,000

.
In response to message posted by snaimon:

Thanks for the update. He now needs a 33% gain to get even which means the Nasdaq has to fall roughly 33% from 41932 to $1294 if I understand what he writes! That would be a retest of the March lows... I doubt we will see that soon but I've been wrong more than once. smile

10/28/03 Doug's Million is a journey My short position has fallen 21% (including my margin account) in the last 10 trading days, giving me a -25% performance since I began my journey to double my money back on Aug. 1. So, why do I keep holding onto it?

1) Doubling my money is a lofty goal, one that requires taking risks that I ordinarily wouldn't take -- certainly risks I would not take with subscribers' money.

So what is the point of his example?

I thought it was to show us how he'd make money with the agressive growth part of our investment portfolios if we gave those dollars to him to invest. Only a fool would put their whole portfolio into a scheme where someone was trying to double their money in a year.

2) Leverage is a powerful tool. It can enhance and diminish your investment performance quickly. When using leverage you must be almost certain of the short-term direction and cover your mistakes quickly because a leveraged fund can really move fast. One day can make a big difference. A week on the right side can be huge. So, what's my pain threshold? I'm not willing to wait until the Cubs win a World Series to sell my position.

So it seems he says to cover mistakes quickly yet he has held on to a 25% loss turning his trade into an investment.

As for the Cubs, well they gave it a decent shot....

08/03/03 $500,000
08/15/03 $480,840
09/12/03 $432,098
09/30/03 $468,000 ???
10/28/03 $375,000 down 25% & still short

-- posted by Kirk

Top 102. Oct 28, 2003 7:20 PM

» SRP_TEX - Re: What I'm Doing

In response to message posted by snaimon:

Listening to Doug ramble on in his twisted logic of why you should invest with him reminds me of reading one of Liberty Pilgrims demented posts...

I am picturing the guy who jumped off Niagra Falls trying to recruit volunteers to go with him on his next plunge over the brink. And paying him for the right to do so.

-- posted by SRP_TEX

Top 103. Oct 29, 2003 6:31 AM

» radiodude - Re: Update 10/28/03 $395,000

In response to message posted by snaimon:

The Mav said: Personal opinions about the market can set back your performance

I thought this guy had some type of model or system that his newsletter was based on. Now he's going by his personal opinions with his own money.

Now he needs a 167% gain to get to the million, and he only has less than 10 months to do it if he is to reach his goal.

The Mav also said: you can make money no matter what the US market is doing

Radiodude says: If your ego is too large, you can lose money no matter what the US market is doing.

-- posted by radiodude

Top 104. Nov 3, 2003 5:33 PM

» fabianblows - Re: Re: Update 10/28/03 $395,000

In response to message posted by Kirk:

A new update from thMavav. as of 10-31-03 He now is -31% return on his stock picks, down to $343K from 500K. This is going to get worse as he sell out of his losing position. Maybe he should name it Doug'GooseEgggg.
If someone wanted to make money then invest in the exact opposite of his recommendation. Tcontrarianian theory.
Before you know it he'll start to go long and the market will sell out pummelling mav mav into the ground.

-- posted by fabianblows

Top 105. Nov 3, 2003 6:19 PM

» Kirk - Re: Update 10/31/03 $343,000

.
In response to message posted by fabianblows:

How about you cut and paste the data onto this list? He might feel I am making fun of him.

I think he proved a valuable lesson, to double your money in a short time can often lead to unexpected performance in the wrong direction!

08/03/03 $500,000
08/15/03 $480,840
09/12/03 $432,098
09/30/03 $468,000 ???
10/28/03 $375,000 down 25% & still short
10/31/03 $343,000

I think I'll stick to my methods, thank-you very much. smile

-- posted by Kirk

Top 106. Nov 13, 2003 6:47 PM

» daryll40 - Re: Re: Update 10/31/03 $343,000

In response to message posted by Kirk:

So, it's now November 13th. I am curious how "Doogie" is doing with his $500,000 to $1M challenge today. I used to subscribe under his father, Dickie, then under Doogie. Dickie had a decent plan, although as more and more people "got into" stocks, it became harder to use and the whipsaws killed you. Doogie totally goofed things up and he was not totally forthcoming with the problems of his system. I even cornered in him in 1994 at a seminar in Philly, but he just ignored the legitimate complaints.

Anyway, I have to admit a bit of schadenfraude and hope the DOW rises another 1000 points and he stays short!

-- posted by daryll40