Doug Fabian - the Mav

» BANANAS_ - Update? What update?

He has not updated his website as of the closest business day of the 1st for this month. Why? Because he sucks when it comes to market timing. He shorted QQQ and is getting burned big time.

BANANAS

-- posted by BANANAS_

» BANANAS_ - The Next Guru Target?

BANANAS

-- posted by BANANAS_

» radiodude - Re: Update? What update?

He has not updated his website as of the closest business day of the 1st for this month. Why?

Sounds like he can't even keep track of what day of the month it is.

This should be fun to watch over the course of a year. (If he ever updates the site.) Between this and the CA elections, I'm set for entertainment for a while.

In all honesty, if he does not update his site, then that's just another indication that he lacks something.

Actually, thinking about it, I wonder why he does not do daily updates. This might increase hits to his site which one would think he would want.

-- posted by radiodude

» snaimon - What EVER happened to TREND FOLLOWING?

Saturday, September 13, 2003

* Fed panics, pumps trillions of dollars into the economy, ignites inflation

* Investors, disgusted by endless Wall Street scandals, buy gold

* Worldwide terrorist jitters on 9/11 anniversary give us 15% -20% profit in 5 days

The NASDAQ wipe out

Are you one of the NEW gold bugs? I am-and you should be, too.

Not because I love gold. But because I love the PROFITS that gold and precious metals can, upon occasion, hand our subscribers.

THIS is one of those occasions.

It's no secret that there's been a rally going on in gold. But now it's poised to burst through the $400 level, taking "VIP Investor" subscribers on a fantastic profit-ride.

Climb aboard now!

https://iplacereports.com/index.asp?sid=3FN009


* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Obscene Profits
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Some of the most OBSCENE profits I've ever made have been in gold. But that was back in 1979...and I never thought I'd live to see those days again!

Never say never.

The Fed, as I told you back in August, has pumped trillions into the economy in a desperate attempt to ward off the collapse of the bond market and avoid a derivatives-led crash in real estate.

As surely as night follows day, inflation must follow from the Fed's actions. Indeed, a fatal collision of this and 3 other events must now drive gold above $400:

Yes, there IS an economic recovery. It's weak, but it's real and it is certainly inflationary.

Yes, we're entering an election year, and tightening is now IMPOSSIBLE for the Federal Reserve for the next 13 months.

Yes, investors have LOST confidence in the system. Was it Enron...or WorldCom...or Tyco...or Martha Stewart...or the billions lifted by light-fingered analysts...or the latest revelations of a backroom poker-game at the mutual funds? Trust vanished at some point-and a whole new generation of gold bugs
was born.

These factors alone give us a solid shot at 15% - 20% profit dead ahead. It'll come all in a rush, too-probably in fewer than 5 trading days. If you're a "VIP Investor" you can grab it all!

Just click here now:

https://iplacereports.com/index.asp?sid=3FN009

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
9/11 Jitters
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

You know that gold is THE safe haven in times of uncertainty. And many will say that, after 9/11, very few things are certain any more.

But there is always uncertainty, so why is gold making it's big run now? Well, little things accumulated to tip uncertainty into flat out PANIC, and this is what we're seeing right now:

In the week of the second anniversary of 9/11, Americans have been reminded of the fragile nature of their daily lives. At the same moment, we've been presented with a SECOND enormous bill-this time for $87 billion-for dealing with Iraq. No one expects this to be the final cost.

On top of which, October-the most notorious month in U.S. stock market history-looms. Oil prices, despite promises, have stayed rock-solid and sky high. It's a tax every American pays. Basic materials costs-aluminum, copper, iron and so on-are going through the roof! And the stock market keeps putting in "head
fakes"-appearing to break out, but failing dismally to follow through.

Together, they have tipped the scale. Now-right now-gold is galloping ahead.

Gold is the second chapter in a fat book of opportunities that I created "VIP Investor" in August to capitalize on.

The first was the bond debacle. The Fed lost control of rates and our enhanced index fund, Rydex Juno, made a fantastic profit.

The second is gold, and I am inviting you to get in on this before it's too late. Your subscription to "VIP Investor" is risk-free for 30-days-so click here now:

https://iplacereports.com/index.asp?sid=3FN009

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Chapter 3: The NASDAQ Wipe Out!
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

All stocks are expensive now, but the most overpriced are tech stocks. Many lack ANY earnings, and even the blue-chip techs like Texas Instruments can't promise earnings growth. Intel's 84% advance isn't a sign of health-it's a sign of amnesia.

For us here at "VIP Investor" these events, as they unfold, offer excellent opportunities. In my own account, the publicly-traded "Doug's Million Dollar" Challenge, I have shorted the Nasdaq 100
in an enhanced fund (USPIX) that offers DOUBLE leverage.

This to the tune of $350,000.

If you'd like to see how I'm doing, you can-just promise me you won't try to copy my moves! You'll get a vicarious thrill from watching ME make a million...while you get a REAL thrill seeing your own money increase by 50%.

I hope you join us today. We're just a click away:

https://iplacereports.com/index.asp?sid=3FN009

Doug Fabian
"VIP Investor"
Make Money In EVERY Market

P.S. Join us now and I will extend to you a very special 75% discount. I'm doing this because I believe with all my heart that you SHOULD join us. I want to remove every impediment, so that your decision is EASY and OBVIOUS.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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reserved.

-- posted by snaimon

» snaimon - Re: Update? What update?

From his dougsmillion page today:

9/12/03
$432,098

The graph only shows 8-1 - 8-4. He started with $500 K.

I am puzzled a bit. I do not subscribe to his service, but on the radio he said that he is a "trend-follower." A few weeks ago, his radio portfiolio was 1/3 SPY, 1/3 Juno Rydex and 1/3 cash. He stated he would put more money into SPY if and when there was an upside breakout in the first week of Sept. That breakout DID happen, but he did not announce what, if any, portfolio moves he made on his show last weekend.

According to his VIP investor email, he is now SHORTING the NASDAQ. So much for "trend-following."

Juno Rydex is off its highs. He recommended tight stops (3 - 5%), so I will imagine he has sold that position even though that plays a prominent role on his dougsmillion page.

Stan

-- posted by snaimon

» Kirk - Update: Doug's Million Dollar Challenge

Maybe we can keep track?

Currently, he shows $432,098. Lets put the results he shows today in table form and then add to the table weekly.:

08/03/03 $500,000
08/15/03 $480,840
09/12/03 $432,098 (down 13.6%)

We can check his web site daily or weekly and update the totals and make our own mental graph. To me, he's lost $67,902 in about 6 weeks for a total loss of 13.6%. My guess is he is short a rising market. Strange too in that the market has not done too much the past month yet he is losing a ton if he keeps that rate up.

<img src=http://www.dougsmillion.com/images/large... width=400 height=300>

Mission:

1. To turn my $500,000 into $1 million in 365 days using products anyone can use and access easily and cheaply, while at the same time managing risk.

2. To prove that mutual funds (this includes Exchange Traded Funds, enhanced index funds and special situation funds, like those that move with interest rates) are all investors need to build wealth in any market climate and that growth doesn't need to involve the added risks of stocks or options.

3. To apply the same principles and strategies I'm currently using in Successful Investing, VIP Investor and my own portfolio -- that is following market trends and adopting a sell strategy for every position.

  Date       Kirk    S&P500   Delta
2003 YTD    +48.3%   17.1%    31.2%  as of 9/13/2003
 

                                Kirk   S&P500+  NASDAQ 
4.5+ Yrs 12/31/98 to 09/13/03  127.3%  (16.6%) (15.4%)
Annualized Annual Return        19.1%  ( 2.6%) ( 3.5%)
 
+with dividends reinvested. All Numbers unaudited. 
Click for a free issue of my newsletter .

-- posted by Kirk

» hairie31 - Fabian Now Sees 1987 Type Decline

This guy is so wishy-washy, his advice is at best worthless.

Earlier this year after the March Rally, he told his listeners not to buy, he was waiting for a correction to issue a Buy Signal. Then after the market was up 20+ %, he suddenly gave a buy signal in the end of May. Now, he's obviously turned bearish again.

Mark Hulbert recently had an article regarding the advisors who had done the best in the Market.

He found there were many different
formulas advisors used to analyze the market and produce superior returns.

What Hulbert discover all the best advisors had in common, was a consistant disciplined approach to investing, which they followed, even if there were times when their formulas didn't appear to be working.

Fabian's jumping in and out of the market..turning bearish to bullish back to bearish all in a few months time, is a sign of a highly emotional investor...the kind who ends up buying at the top and selling at the bottom.

-- posted by hairie31

» Normxxx - Re: Fabian Now Sees 1987 Type Decline

What is his track record?

All else is noise.

-- posted by Normxxx

» hairie31 - Re: Fabian Now Sees 1987 Type Decline

He's obviously trying to do just that..short-term timing and apparently not doing very well. Apparently losing 13 % in the past 6 weeks, (according to Kirk's calculations) while the market has been rising, all the while making the outrageous claim of being able to turn a $500,000 portfolio into a $1,000,000 in 365 days.

Let's see 100 % return in one year,
that would average out to be over 7 % return every month. (Wade Cook promised 20 % a month returns)

At 100 % rate of return for 5 years his $ 500,000 portfolio would be worth $ 16,000,000. For 10 years at 100 % rate of return, his $ 500,000
would have turned into $512,000,000
After 15 years his $ 500,000, would be worth over $ 16 BILLION dollars.

Give me a break!

I'd like to hear what type of spin he'll do if his $ 500,000 portfolio turns into $ 250,000 after 365 days of trying to jump in and out of the market, trying to time every short-term swing in the market.

With his inconsistant investing behavior, he could just as easily turn bullish again in a month.

-- posted by hairie31

» snaimon - Re: Fabian Now Sees 1987 Type Decline

A few years ago when he first started his radio show, and maybe even today, he stated that his goal was a 20% annual increase by "TREND FOLLOWING" using the 200 day (39 week) moving averages of the major indicies. NOT 100% per year. As you write, 100 % per year is crazy.

In sharp contrast to some other radio personalities, he DOES make the radio program interesting. There is a website to listen to the last 10 weeks of programs FREE.

He has a loyal and seemingly growing following of fans (aka subscribers) who gladly part with $185 for a year's worth of advice and access to a website with fund data and advice.

In his favor, he DID sell ALL before the big bad bear hit a few years ago.

OTOH, as several have written, once he sold, he has not done well on picking a re-entry point and returning a 20% increase each year. He lover the "growth season," Oct/Nov - May and, as we know, that has not really happened. Since he sold in Sept or so 2000, he has been in and out a few times, usually settling with a loss. Before the run-up in interest rates in summer 2003, he chose Rydex Juno, which bets for rising rates. Doug Fabian always sets a stop (sell strategy) and uses moving stops to protect his gains. So I would guess he has sold out of the Rydex Juno position.

For the general (radio) public and on the internet, he is not very specific with his current portfolio makeup. It is therefore hard to track his performance without being a subscriber.

Stan

-- posted by snaimon