Doug Fabian - the Mav
- daryll40
- stocksystm
- Kirk
- gus_eson
- daryll40
- pbradford6
- radiodude
- daryll40
- Kirk
- daryll40
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» stocksystm - $230,389
as of 1/23/04. Doogie is going to have to re-do that silly graph again.-- posted by stocksystm
» Kirk - Re: $230,389 - down 54%
.In response to message posted by stocksystm:
Running Tally:
08/03/03 $500,000
08/15/03 $480,840
09/12/03 $432,098
09/30/03 $468,000 ???
10/28/03 $375,000 down 25% & still short
10/31/03 $343,000
11/19/03 $435,400 down 12.92%
11/15/03 $349,131 down 30.2%
01/02/04 $300,000 down 40%; via gus_eson’s message
01/13/04 $241,295 down 51.7%, posted on web site!
01/23/04 $230,389 reported by stocksystm. Down 54%
What I'm Doing 01/23/04
Right now the challenge is to find a fast enough-flying fund that will help get me back on track in Doug's Million. Oddly enough, the very fund that put me in a deep hole -- ProFunds Ultra Short OTC -- may be the one that gives me the best chance of digging me out of it. I know, it's an unconventional, maybe even twisted way of thinking. But, hey, when have you known me not to think unconventionally? Hear me out. Should we get that correction in the market that everyone and their mother are expecting, technology stocks will probably get clobbered. I talked about P/Es earlier and referred to 63 with regard to the Nasdaq 100. That's huge. Prices are so out of whack with regard to earnings and values, we just might see a move proportionate to those during the bear market. The potential is off the charts. From 4/7/00 to 4/14/00, ProFunds Ultra Short OTC gained 73.37% (even though the Nasdaq 100 fell 25%) as the bear dug in its claws. Even during a mere 2-week correction between 8/18/98 and 8/31/98, this fund skyrocketed 48.37% from an 18.62% loss for the index. The gains back then would have been doubled in Doug's Million because of the added position in my margin account. Wouldn't that be a sweet "dog to darling, or rags to riches story?" Remember, you can always expect the unexpected in the stock market.
[Kirk's Editor Comment: Hey Doug, if you get down to a $10, then you can suggest buying 10 California Lotto Tickets to get you back to even. What if every company in the Nasdaq100 makes an announcement similar to Agilent’s announcement yesterday? In November, the company forecast first-quarter earnings between five cents and 15 cents a share, before charges. Disclaimer I am a shareholder of Agilent and I recommend it in my newsletter portfolio. This is sad. He is gambling, not investing. ] Monday January 26, 5:18 pm ET Agilent Boosts Earnings, Revenue Projections
In a press release Monday, Agilent said it expects to earn 20 cents to 24 cents a share before restructuring and amortization charges in the first quarter, which ends Jan. 31.
The middle estimate went from 10¢ to 22¢, up 120%! That sort of earnings leverage makes P/E based on trailing earnings more than useless. It makes it dangerous as some folks (like Doug) mistakenly try to assign valuation using numbers appearing in the rear view mirror, not the future.
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2004 YTD: As of 1/25/04 my newsletter portfolio is up 4.7% YTD vs. 2.7% for VFINX, Vanguard's S&P500 fund. My portfolio uses asset allocation and stock selection with a current allocation roughly 70% equities and 30% fixed income.
-- posted by Kirk
» pbradford6 - BS
Pity the poor investor who buys into this:On April 1, Doug Fabian will launch a new publication called "High Monthly Income." He's boasting a projected return upwards of 10 percent annually without risking principal. This service is designed for those investors who would like to enjoy a healthy income stream without being afraid of losing any capital. "Ultimately we will all reach a point in our lives where our focus shifts from growing our portfolios to generating income from them," Fabian said.
Fabian's High Monthly Income newsletter will be tailored to those investors with $300,000 to $2 million in their portfolios. At an annual rate of 8 percent, an investor should be able to generate $24,000 a year on a minimum investment of $300,000 or on the higher end $160,000 yearly on a 2 million dollar portfolio. While Fabian's other newsletters were tied more narrowly to investing in mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the new service is aimed at a wider range of investments including closed-end funds, REITs, high-yield and corporate bonds, TIPs and dividend-paying stocks.
Doug Fabian also edits two other services, Successful Investing and VIP Investor, both tracked by Hulbert Financial Digest. According to HFD's calculations, Fabian's flagship publication, Successful Investing, gained 10 percent annually over the last 23 1/2 years with 24 percent less risk than the market. -- M. Bobby Syed
Order: HFD Newsletter Performance Profiles
-- posted by pbradford6
» Kirk - Re: More and More Hosed!
In response to message posted by daryll40:Running Tally:
08/03/03 $500,000
08/15/03 $480,840
09/12/03 $432,098
09/30/03 $468,000 ???
10/28/03 $375,000 down 25% & still short
10/31/03 $343,000
11/19/03 $435,400 down 12.92%
11/15/03 $349,131 down 30.2%
01/02/04 $300,000 down 40%; via gus_eson’s message
01/13/04 $241,295 down 51.7%, posted on web site!
01/23/04 $230,389 reported by stocksystm. Down 54%
01/30/04 $256,439 How to make a million: Doug starts with 2!
What I'm Doing 01/30/04
It's been a long time since I've been able to talk about substantial gains in my Doug's Million Dollar Portfolio. It just goes to show you how quickly and decisively the market direction can shift, especially in what many people consider as the most oversold, over-priced segment ... technology. What were the top three performing funds through Thursday? Two leveraged short Nasdaq 100 funds in ProFunds UltraShort OTC, 7.58% and Rydex Dynamic Venture 100, 7.53%; and Rydex Dynamic Tempest, 3.76%. Not quite the price movement we saw from 4/7/00 to 4/14/ 00 when ProFunds UltraShort OTC gained 73.37% (even though the Nasdaq 100 fell 25%) or during the mere 2-week correction between 8/18/98 and 8/31/98 when it skyrocketed 48.37%, but I did get a 15%, 3-day move in my portfolio (including my margin account). With today's disappointing GDP figure, next week could bring much of the same.
-- posted by Kirk
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