Don Hays
- ourisman
- burkmorz
- ourisman
- burkmorz
- coryski
- zilchputtt
- Not_Normal
- Not_Normal
- Kirk
- burkmorz
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» ourisman - Re: What did he say?
In response to message posted by burkmorz:Hays mentioned the recent ARMS index signal and believes we are near a bottom--temporally if not in dollar figures. In his article today, he wrote that he believes a bottom will come on or before April 13 (i.e., within a period of 20 trading days since his signal), and he anticipates a tradeable counter-trend rally from that point.
He has not yet bought any stocks for his managed accounts since the ARMS signal.
-- posted by ourisman
» Not_Normal - Hays and the bottom
Did Hays get it right? So far so good. Actually pretty amazing.-- posted by Not_Normal
» Not_Normal - Hays Says
Here's an excerpt from an article on The Street.com. The context of the article was market commentary.There is no doubt that it is not yet totally evident to anyone that a new bull market has ensued," commented Don Hays of Hays Advisory Group in Nashville, Tenn. "The bears are saying that this humongous rally was nothing but an oversold bounce, [while] the bulls are saying ... they would wait on a pullback to buy, probably even [after] a testing of the lows of recent weeks."
Hays is sticking to his recent prediction that an "important low" was established in mid-March and that stocks are likely to continue rallying going forward.
Today, the veteran market watcher cited statistics that in the 22 times since 1957 that the Dow has risen 3.9% or more in a single session -- as it did Wednesday -- the index has climbed an average of 14.2% in the four months that followed.
"I believe that historical example is probably the best guide that another precipitous decline is not in the cards -- for at least a little longer," he wrote. "I would not expect [any] pullback to be very severe," perhaps taking the S&P 500 back to around 1185.
As noted previously, Hays' track record has certainly not been perfect, and he has -- at times -- confused and frustrated some of his followers. Yet, his broader market calls have been strong for the past year (at least). Of late, he was one of the few market watchers to stick by an expectation the Fed would ease prior to its May 15 gathering.
Thus, his expectation for a continued advance deserves heeding. But those with a longer-term time frame should also note Hays is sticking by a prediction that the market will stumble again later this year, and into 2002.
-- posted by Not_Normal
» Kirk - Too Much Tech - What should I do?
Posted on our TA: Technical Analysis & Charting discussion site:Author: nomar
Date: April 23, 2001 7:23 AM
Subject: Hayes on tech
http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...
Too Much Tech
What should I do?
Question:
I am wondering if you can give me a quick piece of advice. Back in November, on the recommendation of the newsletter Bob Brinker's Marketimer, I bought a lot of qqq and other tech-related shares/funds. As they deflated, I put in more, given Mr. Brinker's usually (or formerly) sound judgments (though he never recommended putting over two-thirds of a portfolio into tech!). Anyway, here I am now with over two-thirds in tech, losses of about 35% in my portfolio, and noticing that you allocate only 15% to tech! Can you advise me regarding how to handle this? Although much of it is in tax-sheltered accts., some of it is outside of them and i could sell for a capital loss ... can you give any advice regarding my sad situation?
Answer:
I would use the rally of the next week to reduce that percentage to no more than 15%, unless you are an aggressive investor.
-- posted by Kirk
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