Elaine Garzarelli : Re: Elaine Garzarelli is still bullish
This archived discussion is "read only".
For the corresponding "live" discussions, post in the active topic forum here.
» SteveT - Re: Elaine Garzarelli is still bullish
In response to message posted by Kirk:
Said something about how she measures earnings.
From her web site she says
"1996 Became bearish using Commerce Dept.'s cash flow earnings data. A few months after that, Greenspan made his "irrational exuberance" speech. (BOTH CALLS WERE CONSIDERD WRONG AT THE TIME) But actually, had the stock market stabilized beginning in 1996, the bubble could have been prevented. The numbers we were using were actually the best measures of earnings (Commerce tax-return data). Because the stock market continued to rise, we assumed our data was wrong. Thereafter, we used S&P profit data and, of course, valuation looked better. After all these years, being bearish in 1996 was the right call, and we were using the correct measure of earnings. Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" speech was also right on.
1997 Turned bullish in early February, after using S&P profit data instead of cash flow earnings in our model."
-- posted by SteveT
Please follow the guidelines set forth in the Suite101 Posting Etiquette when adding to the discussion.