George Gilder - Gilder Technology Report

» RhyneN - Gilder Technology

-- posted by RhyneN

» DanG_6 - Gilder?

-- posted by DanG_6

» Kirk - George Gilder Web Site

George Gilder Bio: http://www.gildertech.com/public/george....

Impressive Bio!!!

According to a recent study of speeches, Mr. Gilder was President Reagan's most frequently quoted living author.

Is that good or bad? 8)

His calls on technology seem remarkable:

Mr. Gilder is a founder of and contributor to Forbes ASAP, and a contributing editor of Forbes magazine. He is a frequent writer for The Economist, the Harvard Business Review, The Wall Street Journal, and other publications. Over the past several years, he has dismissed many of the most touted new technologies—from HDTV and interactive television to 3DO game machines and CD-I multimedia, from TDMA wireless and Nextel cellular compression to pervasive ATM (asynchronous transfer mode) networks. Embraced instead: All-optical networks, smart radios, Qualcomm digital wireless, Stratacom frame relay, mediaprocessors, Netscape browsers, and Sun's Java programming language.

This offer seems enticing:

Can you turn $10,000 into $17,708,483?
http://www.gildertech.com/public/report....

but it is the type of advertsing that scares me a bit...

I've heard VERY good things about Gilder...

-- posted by Kirk

» DanG_6 - Kirk,

-- posted by DanG_6

» Peterantone - Re: Kirk,

-- posted by Peterantone

» Kirk - $100,000 becomes $216,000 in just 12 months

It sounds like they are claiming George Gilder did well in the bear market!

$100,000 becomes $216,000 in just 12 months

Despite the tech-stock meltdown of April 2000, and the subsequent 3-year bear market in high tech, overall Gilder has continued to earn handsome profits for his readers.

Since its launch in 1996, the Gilder Technology Report has comfortably doubled the returns of the S&P 500--through both bull and bear years.

In 2003, the market began to come out of its 3-year bear slump into a gradual recovery, and Gilder Technology Report subscribers profited handsomely, with an annual gain of 123.5%. (as of 12/31/2003)

Had you invested a $100,000 in GTR's companies in 2003, your portfolio would have grown to $216,000 -- in just 12 months.

In 2004, George Gilder remains cautiously optimistic about the new bull market in technology.

Much the same as he did in 1999, Gilder has identified a handful of core technologies -- and within those technologies, half a dozen or so key companies poised to dominate these niches.

I’ll have to check with Mark Hulbert to see how he has done over these periods.

         PERIOD                Kirk  Wilshire5000  Delta
1 Year Return to 12-31-2003    +77%     +31%         46%  
3 Year Return to 12-31-2003    +25%      -7%         32%  
5 Year Return to 12-31-2003   +171%      +2%        169%  

 

Total Return:
                                  Kirk   S&P500+  NASDAQ 
5 Yrs 12/31/98 through 12/31/03  171.0%  ( 3.0%)  ( 8.6%)
Annualized Annual Return          22.1%  ( 0.6%)  ( 1.8%)
 
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2004 YTD: As of 1/25/04 my newsletter portfolio is up 4.7% YTD vs. 2.7% for VFINX, Vanguard's S&P500 fund. My portfolio uses asset allocation and stock selection with a current allocation roughly 70% equities and 30% fixed income.

-- posted by Kirk

» Kirk - Xanoptix

Kirk, I tried but it's beenso long I haven't a clue as to my username or password. I'm on the road (Spokane) with only my Sony laptop, whereas most of my usernames and pw's are at home on my Powerbook. So, go ahead and pass the info along as you deem appropriate.

A

Subject: Xanoptix: GLW & A
Date: Sun, 6 Jun 2004 13:45:11 -0400
From:
To:

Kirk,

I know you follow Agilent, maybe GLW as well. This may be of interest to you, Xanoptix:

For the past six months, George Gilder has been writing about a new start-up company that is going to revolutionize the electronics industry. Yesterday, using the few hints he had given over the past months, the company was identified by one of the Gilder forum posters and Gilder comfirmed that the company is XANOPTIX:

"Xanoptix commercializes a revolutionary new approach to semiconductor manufacturing - chip level direct die-to-die interconnection of
integrated circuits, allowing system designers a modular building block approach for chip level solutions. Utilizing this Hybrid Integrated Circuit Technology to combine silicon integrated circuits and compound semiconductors, Xanoptix offers cost effective die integration services to component and system owners, and also designs
and manufactures its own optical connection products for next generation data links and optical communication applications. Xanoptix is headquartered in Merrimack, NH, where the company performs all product design, development, and hybrid manufacturing."

Xanoptix is still private, but with all the buzz on the GTR board this weekend, there may be a play in GLW, an investor in Xanoptix and Agilent, which apparently has close ties to the company.

You guys are probably all over this already, but in case your not, I just wanted to give you a heads-up, since you already follow GLW and this revealation may have a positive effect on the company as well as push Agilent up on your radar. Below are some quotes from George Gilder posted over the past 48 hours.

Allan

>Previously you indicated that Agilent would benefit from all of this but I
>don't quite see where it fits in to this seismic computing shift. Any
>thoughts?

GG: In speeches, Agilent's CEO Ned Barnholt is the leading corporate enthusiast for the Xanoptix process and he uses it in Agilent transcievers. I suspect there is a significant tie between the companies, but I don't know the
details.

>Who on the list wins and who loses?

GG: Good question. I will be working on it. The quick answer is that we cannot know. The winners will be the companies that can best deal with an entirely new environment--the companies with the most entrepreneurial leadership. Also benefiting will be the companies that produce the best content and software to run on the ever more efficient and portable hardware.

On the list, almost everyone seems to lose except Corning, an investor in Stealthco, Agilent with CEO Ned Barnholt already apparently on board, the optical network star, Corvis, and optical system innovator Essex. But Xanoptix
could enable new competition for all of them. NSM, TI, Analog Devices, Intel, EZ, Broadcom, and the other chip companies may well use the Xanoptix service and thus sharply enhance their capabilities. JDSU, Avanex, and other optical
component players may find that their devices (particularly transceivers) are replaced by hybrid systems from Xanoptix. Xanoptix may so change the electronic interfaces and power systems that the analog players, including
PWER, will have to transform their product lines. I don't know where all those bricks fit in a Xanoptix topology, but power, in whatever diminished amounts, still will have to be delivered to the right place in the right form.

The upside is that all electronic hardware will be cheaper faster and cooler. That should expand the market for everyone on the list.

Uni, thanks for all the work. I now have to explain it myself for the letter and articles. The essence of the breakthrough is banishing the bottleneck of pins and buses and boards, all the usual architecture of electronics, all the electrical and logical underbrush. John Trezza is the new Bob Noyce. Noyce put all the transistors together on a silicon integrated circuit linked to the world through much slower pins. Trezza puts all the chips and boards and busses in a single integrated stack of chips linked to the world through the unlimited speed of optics.A stack of fused chips performing all the processing is linked directly to fiber optic lines. With memories coupled directly to the processor, embedded RAM, fast SRAM, RAMBUS all go away. Ordinary DRAM suffices and I would expect Micron to gain, except that the need for CMOS compatibility goes away and ferroelectric and amorphous memories come to the fore. With memory separate from processor, chips become smaller and more specialized and yields rise to near 100 percent. With chips linked directly to fiber, off chip bandwidth equals on chip bandwidth. Much of Intel's expertise with multilayered caches and cascaded buses and bypass bridges becomes obsolete. I hesitate even to enter the thicket of the impact on power technology. Gone are all the electrical drivers that impel signals down the pins and across the boards, thus power usage drastically falls and teleputers improve their edge on desktop machines. Optics performs all the communications, so the all optical network prevails. But at the same time, optoelectronic processing becomes cheaper and easier, so all optical networks can incorporate more electronics on the control plane.This is really too big for my microcosmic mind to embrace. I need help.--
GG

-- posted by Kirk

» Kirk - The Next Revolution In Chips

NEW YORK - In the late 1990s, George Gilder achieved a status similar to that of a rock star among technology investors, as the companies he wrote about in the Gilder Technology Report soared in value. His idea of the "telecosm" provided a unified field theory of computing and communications.

Gilder's paradigm held that the computing power enabled by the microprocessor was the first wave of an information technology revolution, but that faster and more efficient means of communication would usher in the new and even more powerful phase of the revolution--unlimited bandwidth available universally.

Stymied by a combination of government regulators and system architecture, Gilder's vision has yet to reach its full fruition. First of all, not all homes and offices have the "last mile" of high-speed connections to the Internet, something he says is hampered by a patchwork of regulations in all 50 states. As a result, South Korea currently has more bandwidth per capita than the U.S.

Another impediment, says Gilder, has to do with a different kind of patchwork, the kind that connects the awesome computing power of microchips to the light-speed of optical networks to carry data where it needs to go--something Gilder calls "storewidth." Also, most of the real estate on a chip, in fact, is devoted not to calculating power but to memory in the form of buffers and caches.

A private New Hampshire company called Xanoptix may be on its way to alleviating this bottleneck with technology that can "fuse" chips together with optical pins, greatly improving the communications speed of chips produced by companies like Intel (nasdaq: INTC - news - people ), Advanced Micro Devices (nyse: AMD - news - people ), Xilinx (nasdaq: XLNX - news - people ), PMC-Sierra (nasdaq: PMCS - news - people ), Broadcom (nasdaq: BRCM - news - people ) and others.

Gilder recently spoke with us about the potential of Xanoptix's ability to use optics to revolutionize electronics.

Click here to watch a video.
http://www.forbes.com/investmentnewslett...

Even if you don’t market time or buy individual stocks, my newsletter offers quite a bit of useful information and tables (Discussion of interest rates, The Fed Model, etc.) which many say are worth the price of the subscription on its own. Show your support for my work at Suite101.com and become a subscriber today!

As of 1/1/05, the Total Return for Kirk's Newsletter since 12/31/98 is 160%. Here are some more periods and comparative benchmarks:

                  Kirk  S&P500  NASDAQ  BRKA
2YR: 12/31/2002   +69%   +41%    +63%   +23%
4YR: 12/31/2000   +35%    -3%    -12%   +26%
6YR: 12/31/1998  +160%     7%     -1%   +27%