Abby Joseph Cohen

Top 56. Mar 7, 2001 3:03 PM

» DennisL - Re: Upbeat Goldman Call Juices Futures

In response to message posted by Kirk:

And she reiterated her year-end predictions, saying the S&P 500 will rise 31% from where we are to 1650. The Dow will pop 23% to 13,000, she said.

I hope she's right and I'm wrong, but I think Abby's call for 31% on the S&P 500 and 23% on the Dow over the next 9.5 months is totally absurd.

-- posted by DennisL

Top 57. Mar 8, 2001 5:35 AM

» reporter20 - Re: Re: Upbeat Goldman Call Juices Futures

In response to message posted by DennisL:

I hope she's right too, but i doubt it. At the end of 1999, with the S&P at 1469, she predicted a gain of roughly 5% in the S&P for 2000 and we ended at about 1320. Some time in 2000 she reduced her equity weighting by 5%, while maintaining her year-end target. The market immediately reacted and went way down. I never understood that move, but what do i know? I would be happy to get back to 1469 by year end and call it a waste of 2 years in VFINX and move on from there.

-- posted by reporter20

Top 58. Mar 8, 2001 5:48 AM

» Rande - Re: Re: Re: Upbeat Goldman Call Juices Futures

In response to message posted by reporter20:

Wouldn't call it a waste of 2 years. What newer investors are starting to realize is that stocks don't always go up (shock!). In order to obtain the benefits of the long-term trend of equity growth, investors must be willing to tolerate shorter-term periods of adversity. If nothing else, an appropriate allocation suited to current circumstances, time horizon, and risk tolerance allow investors to stay the course without getting frightened (fear of losing everything) or losing patience (greed for quicker alternatives to critical mass).

-- posted by Rande

Top 59. Mar 8, 2001 5:58 AM

» reporter20 - Re: Re: Re: Re: Upbeat Goldman Call Juices Futures

In response to message posted by Rande:

Rande: Good point. By the way, Kudlow article in Market watch, predicting the same as Abby.

-- posted by reporter20

Top 60. Mar 8, 2001 6:02 AM

» Rande - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Upbeat Goldman Call Juices Futures

In response to message posted by reporter20:

re20,

Thanks for the heads-up on Kudlow. I'll post the link over on Ask. That guy sure is a pessimist, isn't he? ;)

-- posted by Rande

Top 61. Mar 8, 2001 6:39 AM

» Kirk - Re: Abby wrong about 2000

In response to message posted by reporter20:

I saw her on TV last night and they asked her about being "wrong" in 2000. She had a good answer. She said HER targets were much lower than most of her (missed the exact word) "contemporaries". She also said her "targets" were just there to indicate direction and general magnitude when asked about expecting a 30% gain from present levels. I got the impression she would not feel "wrong" if we got anything between a 10 and 40% gain from present levels... the idea is we are under valued and the upside potential is much larger than money rates.

IF you look at her numbers and what she says about valuation, she is saying the that market in 2000 over reacted and sold off too many babies with the bathwater. This is normal as it over shot on the plus side and it over shoots on the negative side. This is EXACTLY why dynamic asset allocation works so well...

Moving 5% out near tops and back in when over sold can really add return to a portfolio if you guess right on sectors to add and subtract. I can attest to that as it is amazing how well my portfolio held up by taking about 10% out in 2000 and putting about half into bonds and half into banks and other under valued areas (a transportation stock). You STILl suffer with the overall market if there is a decline, but at a muted level due to the dynamic reallocations. If you read the posts here, some are starting to do just this with their portfolios but using total market or S&P500 funds: sell a bit on the peaks and buy a bit back on the lulls...

-- posted by Kirk

Top 62. Mar 9, 2001 7:00 AM

» collguy - She's full of it

Anyone claiming to forecast the market is a con. Especially, Abby Joseph Con. Just another ANALyst.

-- posted by collguy

Top 63. Apr 18, 2001 11:26 AM

» Kirk - 4/18/01 Update

Abby has lowered her targets slightly but expects reacceleration of profits later this year.

Old S&P500 year end target was 1650
NEW S&P500 year end target is now 1550
-Still this is up 35%

She said to UNDER WEIGHT Technology this time last year.

NOW she is sayign OVER WEIGHT Technology as it is under valued.

Current asset allocation
Stocks 70%, Bonds 27% and Cash 3%

-- posted by Kirk

Top 64. Apr 18, 2001 1:02 PM

» Not_Normal - Re: 4/18/01 Update

In response to message posted by Kirk:

I heard someone say yesterday that Buffet has done a better job over time than has Abbey. Didn't catch the context. Were they talking about the last 5-10-15-20 years? Just don't know, and who cares?

-- posted by Not_Normal