Abby Joseph Cohen
- KirkL
- DennisL
- KirkL
- Jaybird248
- DennisL
- KirkL
- KirkL
- KirkL
- JenL_3
- ron
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» KirkL - Cohen predicts tricky '99
Full StoryGoldman Sachs market strategist Abby Joseph Cohen warned investors Thursday that Wall Street will be a much more difficult game to play in 1999, but said she remains confident in the economic engine powering "Supertanker America."
The equity markets mogul, whose comments have the power to move markets, said in her outlook report for 1999 she expects operating income among Standard & Poor's 500 companies to grow 5 percent to 7 percent next year. Rates of return in the overall stock market also should return to "normal," she said.
Based on Cohen's predictions, the S&P index should reach 1,275 by the end of next year, with the Dow Jones industrial average hovering at around 9,850, slightly less optimistic for the Dow than some analysts have predicted.
She sees potential in semiconductors, energy and energy-related stocks and securities like junk bonds…
-- posted by KirkL
» DennisL - Abby Joseph Cohen
Did any of you see her on Moneyline tonight? She was upbeat and continues to be bullish. She said that Dow 10K is not a big deal and that she does not expect there to be a big sell-off after the milestone is reached. She continues to focus only on the economic fundamentals, which, in her mind, are strong. She expects corporate earnings to improve later in 1999 and into 2000 in a continuing environment of low inflation and low interest rates. All of this means, of course, excellent potential for higher stock prices through 2000.Don't forget that write-in vote for the 2000 presidential election: Bob Brinker for President and Abby Joseph Cohen for Vice-President...8-)
-- posted by DennisL
» KirkL - Abbey J. Cohen sees 1325 S&P500
Wednesday March 24, 9:13 am Eastern TimeGoldman's Cohen lifts 1999 S&P 500 target to 1325
NEW YORK, March 24 (Reuters) - Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sach's chief market strategist and one of Wall Street's most widely respected stock analysts, raised her 1999 target for the Standard & Poor's 500 index to 1325 based on an improved outlook for corporate profits, the firm said on Wednesday.
http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990324/lh.html
Cohen, who previously expected the benchmark stock index to hit a range of 1275-1300 by the end of this year, expects 1999 and 2000 to be years of ongoing profit expansion with better aggregate gains than in 1998, which was a disappointing year, a spokesman for the firm said. Cohen was not available.
-- posted by KirkL
» Jaybird248 - Oh Dear, Abby! Just 1325?
Considering that we were just at about 1305, Abby's forecast of 1325 in the next 12 months is pretty pathetic. In fact, it's just 7.8% growth from start of year at 1228.More reason to learn those sideways market skills. The days of getting rewarded richly for just showing up are becoming a memory.
-- posted by Jaybird248
» KirkL - Queen Abby says "This Bull Still Has Legs"
Smartmoney ArticleExcerpt:
WONDERING WHEN this bull market will end? According to Goldman Sachs' Abby Joseph Cohen, not anytime soon. In fact, she is encouraged by the economic environment and says it supports today's lofty prices.
In a research report issued Thursday, Cohen says investors are likely to be "calmed and encouraged" by developments relating to inflation, corporate profits and the bond market. So much for that nasty second-half correction some of our other pundits are predicting.
Even in this positive environment, investors shouldn't expect a near-term rally. She believes stocks will continue to trade in a narrow range, with the S&P 500 trading between 1300 and 1350. In fact, Cohen says stocks are currently 5% overvalued. The only silver lining here is that the market should be able to hold its own even at this level. "This degree of overvaluation is not deemed to be significant; prior periods of overvaluation reached levels of 25% to 30%," she says.
Jeepers....get a 5% upside surprise on earnings.... and we are at fair value.
-- posted by KirkL
» KirkL - Abby J.
Abby J. Cohen was on CNBC last evening...In an interview on CNBC, a business-news cable television station, Cohen said, ``Our expectation is that the second quarter will be yet another good gain, not just in reported earnings but more importantly operating earnings.'' Pre-announcements by U.S. companies of quarterly profit shortfall have been a bit less frequent than in other quarters, she noted.
Further, in the second half of the year, ``we are going to have some very easy comparisons in a number of cyclically -sensitive industries.'' Corporate profits in the year-earlier period were curtailed by a market slump.
Commenting on the inflation outlook for the U.S. economy, Cohen said she expected ``a modest updrift,'' noting that there had already been de facto tightening in monetary policy that has kept inflation under ``very good control.''
-- posted by KirkL
» KirkL - Abby Watch
Abby J. Cohen was just on CNBCHighlights:
- we've been in a trading range of S&P500 of 1300-1350 since March. (As far as I can remember she only gives ranges for the S&P500.)
http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=spy&d=1ys - Said DOW and NASDAQ don't matter - fewer stocks and more volitile. Chart of SPY,DIA & NASDAQ
- Roughly at fair value today
- Sees 10% annualized return from here for the next few yrs
- Attractive areas are
Financial
Technology (especially mainline big winners) - Not worried about inflation. We've seen its lowest, but it will be slow and steady from here
- Market is priced for 1 or 2 more interest rate hikes since long bond has gone up 150 basis points since final lowering and has only had a single 25 basis point increase since then.
Pretty much what Rande and I been saying here. Slow and steady when averaged out but of course there will be bumps.
-- posted by KirkL
» JenL_3 - Abby C.
This article on Abby Cohen in 8/30 Barrons was referred to on the "Ask Rande" thread:Stay Relaxed - Abby Cohen says there's no bear in sight
by-- Jonathan R. Laing
With the Dow hitting all-time highs last week, investors may be wondering how much longer the stock market can continue to levitate.
Such concerns make it timely to talk again to star Goldman Sachs market strategist Abby Joseph Cohen, whom we profiled in a February 23, 1998, cover story, "Abby says Relax." For no one has gotten the 'Nineties bull market more right than she, remaining unremittingly optimistic in the face of even ugly pullbacks like that of last fall.
Nor did she disappoint. She told us in a telephone interview that the bull was alive and well and should remain so through at least next year. These days, she's busy revising her market growth targets for the second half of '99 because stronger-than-expected gains in real GDP and corporate profits in the first half had rendered her current targets out of date. The new targets won't be released until her team has full second-quarter earnings data on the S&P.
Nonetheless, the market's health overall is tiptop, she averred. Inflation remains quiescent. Interest rates are under control, with "bond yields having already experienced much of their excitement for the year." Likewise, productivity trends remain favorable. Nor does she see the gross overvaluation in prices that typically -- along with a weakening economy, rising inflation and weakening corporate profits -- triggers a bear market. Since March, the S&P has stayed in a range of 5% undervalued and 5% overvalued, according to her models -- far from the overvaluation of as much as 25% typically seen at peaks.
Several factors should contribute to strong corporate profit growth in the second half. The global economy is recovering from its parlous state late last year, which should help U.S. multinationals. Likewise, earnings comparisons are likely to be easier. In 1998's second half, weak prices hurt the profits of energy companies and commodity producers; technology companies were beset by excess capacity in Asia and by choppy product cycles; financial-services outfits suffered from the convulsions in world capital markets, and Rust Belt America felt the effects of the General Motors strike.
Of even greater moment, in Cohen's estimation, is the persistence of profit growth rather than its magnitude. "Durability of earnings is what fuels a bull market, and things look good on that score well into next year," she asserts. "For one thing, there's still room for lots of growth overseas, since the global economy so far is merely out of danger and showing only fitful improvement."
Nor does she see the signs of speculative excess cited by so many bears. For example, today's merger-and-acquisition wave has been motivated by strategic considerations of consolidating industries and cutting costs -- not 1980s-style financial engineering. Moreover, the attractive valuations of small and mid-sized companies make such deals all the more compelling.
As Abby said before: Just relax.
<img src=" http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Dist... " width=177 height=230>
She's The Lady!…..Jen
-- posted by JenL_3
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