Abby Joseph Cohen
- KirkL
- KirkL
- Rande
- Kirk
- matttheduck
- Rande
- Kirk
- Kirk
- matttheduck
- Rande
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» KirkL - Abby on Face the Nation
Abby Interview Comments"I believe that what drives stock prices ultimately is how long the economy can continue to grow, generating good profits and jobs which gives us that momentum in the economy. And as we take a look into 2000, we don't see it ending. We think that this is an economy that will continue to generate jobs and profits. Stock prices, we think, will continue to rise roughly in concert with the improvements in corporate profits."
I like Abby Cohen!
My 8/18/99 Notes from her interview on CNBC has her saying we are in a trading range with the S&P500 between 1300 and 1350 and she expects 10% annualized growth from here (for the next few yrs or decades). She also says we are at about fair value whereas we were 5% above fair value the interview I remember from before. Clearly earnings have grown faster then she expected (but I suggested we would see....).
-- posted by KirkL
» KirkL - Abby Watch!
Recent Story
"The yen has been hurt by the multi-year recession in Japan. Signs (the recession) is now ending are very positive news for Japan," Cohen said. "So the difference in the dollar/yen is not negative for the U.S., but positive."
She said the better performance of the Japanese economy, signaling the global economy was recovering from the slump that started in late summer 1997, meant a healthier environment overall for equities.
So....dollar isn't weakening, rather the Yen is getting stronger! Sure is different than what I have heard from "normal sources"....8)
-- posted by KirkL
» Rande - Abby in the NY Times (excerpt):
Abby in the NY Times (excerpt):As for Ms. Cohen's market forecast, which she says provides direction, not precision, she puts the S&P 500 at 1,525 and the Dow at 12,300 at the end of next year. Those are jumps of 4.6 percent and 7.8 percent, respectively, from the levels Thursday.
Ms. Cohen is favoring financial stocks, including banks and insurance companies, in part because they fell so sharply this year that she thinks they are good values. "You are buying a financial services growth stock at a 40 percent discount to the market," she said. And technology stocks are still on her list, although she thinks the "valuations are not as appealing as they were."
The biggest threat Ms. Cohen sees is the politics of a presidential election year, a factor that many strategists have not even mentioned in their musings about 2000. "Directional changes could be problematic," she wrote in her outlook analysis. "For example, federal budget policy has been moving toward restraint since 1992; proposals for excessive tax cuts or spending programs could be worrisome."
She dismisses the risk of a surge in inflation and says Year 2000 computer problems will be few. She does not think that economic recovery and stock-market rallies abroad will siphon off investors from the U.S. market. Indeed, Ms. Cohen said global growth would help the profits of American multinationals.
And she says the stock market will weather the rate increases that she and most other analysts expect the Federal Reserve to make early next year if the economic growth refuses to slow from the torrid 5 percent annual pace of the last six months. "This is something that will not come as a surprise," she said. "It is already a built-in presumption."
So the shock for investors, if Ms. Cohen is right about market valuations, is that normal returns next year will look puny compared with the last five, robust years.
-- posted by Rande
» Kirk - Abby J. Cohen
Rang the bell and busted the gavel to close the NYSE today!afterwards on CNBC she said:
record closings all over the world is good for the us stock market.
technology stocks were undervalued and are now more reasonably valued (harder to find bargains so you will have to work at it)
Likes banks and financials for value and potential for next year.
Jeeze.... where did I hear ALL that before? 8)
-- posted by Kirk
» matttheduck - the latest from abby
more bullishness from the queen of the bulls:Cohen raises S&P target
Goldman's influential strategist looks for 7 percent gain in index
March 21, 2000: 7:25 p.m. ET
NEW YORK (CNNfn) - Abby Joseph Cohen, co-chair of Goldman Sachs' investment policy committee and one of Wall Street's most influential market strategists, said Monday that she has become more bullish on the U.S. stock market.
Cohen said she expects that the Standard & Poor's 500 Index will close above 1,575 in 2000. Last December, she forecast that the S&P 500 would close above 1,525 this year. The change means she now expects the S&P 500 to finish 7 percent above its 1999 close of 1469.25 The index closed Tuesday at 1493.87
Cohen increased her estimate for the profits from the 500 companies that make up the S&P 500 Index to $56 a share from $55 a share previously. She introduced an S&P 500 earnings target for $60 a share in 2001, although she did not set a price target for the index that year, a spokesperson for the investment bank said.
Cohen was not available for comment. She made the forecasts on a conference call with Goldman Sachs' sales force after the market close Tuesday, the spokesperson said.
Cohen has been ranked the top portfolio strategist three years running in the Institutional Investor survey and as the ninth most powerful woman in the world by Fortune magazine.
Last December, Cohen told CNNfn that the financial services industry and other "industrial cyclicals" are the most likely areas for growth this year.
-- Reuters contributed to this report
-- posted by matttheduck
» Kirk - Abby on Cfnn
**Cohen Second Hand Notes re Cfnn Appearance**Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs
The broader market indices will have a good year, but not a great
year.
Technology will do well fundamentally and earnings are good.
The level of positive surprise is lower now.
There is some concern that the economy will slow due to higher
interest rates and therefore profits will decrease.
Also, statistical comparisons are getting more difficult because the
2nd half of 1999 was better than the 1st half.
Stock prices usually do well with moderate profit growth as long as
investors believe that the growth is durable.
She thinks that stock prices will rise at the end of the year and into
2001.
She looks for areas that have suffered from benign neglect up until
now, such as financial services, including banks.
She also likes selected drug, pharmaceutical and biotech companies
where the stock prices have not kept up with what the companies
have done.
-- posted by Kirk
» Kirk - Abby on CNBC
Interview Transcript:Sue Herera:
This afternoon there were some analysts on the Street we talked to... they were somewhat discouraged, if you will, by the inability of the Dow to hold on to some of the gains that we saw posted just before the closing bell. Does
that worry you?
Abby Joseph Cohen: Not at all. We have had a market in the United
States that has a tendency to move just like a staircase. It takes large steps
up and then gets stuck in a trading range, and we think we are in such a trading
range.
Investors, in my view, should not be focusing in on daily action, or action
within the course of the day, but really track how the fundamentals are
performing, because ultimately the stocks prices will reflect that.
We think the economy is doing well, corporate profits are doing well.
Ron Insana: But Abby, what about some of the concerns that were raised
last week? No one can, judging by the economic numbers, quite tell if the
economy's getting stronger or weakening, and nobody can tell about the profit
picture, given that some of the biggest, high profile companies have announced
earnings warnings that are going to last the rest of the year.
AJC: Ron, it has been our expectation since the beginning of 2000 that
there would be an inflection point in our economy around mid-year. And we
think that we have approached that inflection point, one in which economic
growth has already begun to slow.
The question in my mind is not whether growth is slowing, but rather to what
pace, and our best judgment at this point is that growth will be moving down
from the very rapid growth rate of more than 8 percent in the fourth quarter of
last year to something about one-half that pace. And with it, we think the
corporate profit growth will also slow. But it too will be, still, at
reasonably good rates... at least that of trend for the S&P 500.
SH: So Abby, take what you just put forward for us and tell us what
you think given that the Fed's going to do, not only in its next meeting, but
perhaps even a little bit further out. That's another big debate on the
Street.
AJC: Built in to the fixed-income market, we believe, is the
expectation that the Fed may very well raise interest rates by about 25-basis
points. Give that a 50 percent probability, according to the fixed-income
analyst.
I think the Fed will be making its decision based upon economic data. In the
United States we believe the data to this point suggests that the economy is
slowing. But we have lots more information coming out this week.
It's clear, however, that the inflection point has been passed, and the
question becomes, "What is the new growth rate?"
Until the Fed is certain of that, we think they may be taking deliberate
steps, if they do raise interest rates, it will be in relatively small
increments as they watch and wait to see what else happens.
Keep in mind too that the rest of the global economy has some big question marks. Japan is showing very little in the way of private domestic demand. That's true too for China, the world's most populous nation.
http://www.cnbc.com/commentary/commentar...
-- posted by Kirk
» matttheduck - latest from abby
about 11 percent over the next 9 months...Cohen predicts S&P gains
Influential Goldman Sachs analyst Abby Cohen sees first-half gains on S&P 500
September 12, 2000: 8:22 p.m. ET
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs' Abby Cohen, one of Wall Street's most influential stock analysts, predicted on Tuesday the S&P 500 index would make modest gains in the first six months of 2001 and reach 1,650 by midyear.
The index closed Tuesday at about 1,482.
"By year-end 2000, we would expect the S&P 500 to move somewhat higher than current levels and reach 1,575 and our mid-year 2001 price target is 1,650," Cohen said in a videotaped speech to the National Association for Business Economics conference in Chicago.
The Goldman Sachs (GS: Research, Estimates) analyst said she thought the stock market was fairly valued right now, and she forecast 10 percent growth in S&P 500 corporate operating profit next year.
-- posted by matttheduck
» Rande - Abby Joseph Cohen Talks Markets
Abby Joseph Cohen Talks MarketsBy CNBC.com Staff
Goldman Sachs Partner and Chair of the Investment Policy Committee, Abby Joseph Cohen, is scheduled to appear on CNBC TV's Market Watch Thursday. She'll discuss how you can still make money in the market even if the economy and corporate profits slow down.
-- posted by Rande
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