Abby Joseph Cohen | Suite101.com

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Top 115. Aug 11, 2002 2:05 PM

» Steven_Russell - Cohen's record

Some data below is from The Cohen Files:

http://www.nologravis.com/poyser-temp/co...

The rest is from the beginning of this thread.

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August 18, 1999

Notes from her interview on CNBC has her saying we are in a trading range with the S&P500 between 1300 and 1350 and she expects 10% annualized growth from here (for the next few yrs or decades).

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August 29, 1999 Face the Nation

"I believe that what drives stock prices ultimately is how long the economy can continue to grow, generating good profits and jobs which gives us that momentum in the economy. And as we take a look into 2000, we don't see it ending. We think that this is an economy that will continue to generate jobs and profits. Stock prices, we think, will continue to rise roughly in concert with the improvements in corporate profits."

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August 30, 1999 Barrons

She told us in a telephone interview that the bull was alive and well and should remain so through at least next year. Nor does she see the gross overvaluation in prices that typically -- along with a weakening economy, rising inflation and weakening corporate profits -- triggers a bear market. Since March, the S&P has stayed in a range of 5% undervalued and 5% overvalued, according to her models -- far from the overvaluation of as much as 25% typically seen at peaks.

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December 16, 1999 CNNfn

S&P 500... 1418
Dow... 11244
Nasdaq... 3715

"The message is that we expect stock prices to reach new highs in 2000, although the gains will be more moderate than experienced in prior years.” Cohen forecast Thursday that the S&P 500 index will hit 1,525 by the end of 2000, a nearly 8 percent gain. Cohen also predicted the Dow Jones industrial average will hit 12,300 by the end of 2000. That would be a gain of 9.6 percent over Wednesday's close of 11,225.32 .

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December 29, 1999 New York Times

As for Ms. Cohen's market forecast, which she says provides direction, not precision, she puts the S&P 500 at 1,525 and the Dow at 12,300 at the end of next year. Those are jumps of 4.6 percent and 7.8 percent, respectively, from the levels Thursday. And technology stocks are still on her list, although she thinks the "valuations are not as appealing as they were." And she says the stock market will weather the rate increases that she and most other analysts expect the Federal Reserve to make early next year if the economic growth refuses to slow from the torrid 5 percent annual pace of the last six months.

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December 30, 1999 on CNBC and CNNfn

S&P 500... 1464
Dow... 11452
Nasdaq... 4036

Cohen said Wall Street could see double-digit growth again next year. She said technology stocks were undervalued and are now more reasonably valued. Likes banks and financials for value and potential for next year.

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Year end 1999:

S&P 500... 1469
Dow... 11497
Nasdaq... 4069

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January 27, 2002 CNNfn

S&P 500... 1398
Dow... 11028
Nasdaq... 4039

[The] technology sector, [Cohen] noted, which typically has earned Wall Street's highest valuations despite the general lack of significant profits, should enjoy investor confidence this year based on recent results ... she said, "It seems the 'irrational exuberance' (of last year) has been justified."

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March 20, 2000 CNNfn

S&P 500... 1493
Dow... 10907
Nasdaq... 4711

Cohen said Monday that she has become more bullish on the U.S. stock market. Cohen said she expects that the Standard & Poor's 500 Index will close above 1,575 in 2000. And year-end estimates for the Dow were raised to 12,600 from 12,300.
Last December, she forecast that the S&P 500 would close above 1,525 this year. The change means she now expects the S&P 500 to finish 7 percent above its 1999 close of 1469.25. The index closed Tuesday at 1493.87. Cohen increased her estimate for the profits from the 500 companies that make up the S&P 500 Index to $56 a share from $55 a share previously. [reality - 2000 operating EPS came in at $55] She introduced an S&P 500 earnings target for $60 a share in 2001. [reality - 2001 operating EPS came in at $45]

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March 28, 2000 CBS.MW

Cohen decreased her stock allocation in a model portfolio by 5 percent to 65 percent, and raised her cash position to 5 percent. She had no cash allocations over the past two years.

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April 17, 2000 CNNfn

S&P 500... 1401
Dow... 10582
Nasdaq... 3539

Cohen reassured investors Monday that they should not be put off by recent market volatility -- and should hold on to stocks because growth remains strong. "We expect 2001 to be yet another year of profit expansion, albeit at a slower pace," Cohen said. [reality - 2001 was a three-quarter recession year]

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May 5, 2000 CBSM

"Goldman Sachs' chief strategist remains bullish on the economy and sees no signs of a recession."

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May 16, 2000 CNNfn from Washington, D.C.

S&P 500... 1466
Dow... 10934
Nasdaq... 3717

Cohen is still bullish on the stock market but warned investors not to expect the double-digit gains of the past. "We went from a market that was dramatically undervalued to one that is priced close to where it should be."

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July 20, 2000 CNNfn

The broader market indices will have a good year, but not a great year. Technology will do well fundamentally and earnings are good. She thinks that stock prices will rise at the end of the year and into 2001. She looks for areas that have suffered from benign neglect up until now, such as financial services, including banks. She also likes selected drug, pharmaceutical and biotech companies where the stock prices have not kept up with what the companies have done.

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July 27, 2000 CNNfn

S&P 500... 1449
Dow... 10568
Nasdaq... 3842

Cohen expects the stock market to continue rising into next year as the U.S. economic expansion chugs on, keeping corporate profits afloat. The stomach-churning swings seen in the market over the spring should fade into a memory as the market continues to calm down, she said. Cohen said she expects the Standard & Poor's 500 index to reach 1,650 by mid-2001.

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August 1, 2000 CNBC

We have had a market in the United States that has a tendency to move just like a staircase. It takes large steps up and then gets stuck in a trading range, and we think we are in such a trading range. We think the economy is doing well, corporate profits are doing well. The question in my mind is not whether growth is slowing, but rather to what pace, and our best judgment at this point is that growth will be moving down from the very rapid growth rate of more than 8 percent in the fourth quarter of last year to something about one-half that pace. And with it, we think the corporate profit growth will also slow. But it too will be, still, at reasonably good rates... at least that of trend for the S&P 500.

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September 12, 2000 Reuters, National Association for Business Economics conference in Chicago

Goldman Sachs' Abby Cohen predicted on Tuesday the S&P 500 index would make modest gains in the first six months of 2001 and reach 1,650 by midyear. The index closed Tuesday at about 1,482. "By year-end 2000, we would expect the S&P 500 to move somewhat higher than current levels and reach 1,575 and our mid-year 2001 price target is 1,650." She said she thought the stock market was fairly valued right now, and she forecast 10 percent growth in S&P 500 corporate operating profit next year.

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September 21, 2000 Reuters

S&P 500... 1449
Dow... 10765
Nasdaq... 3828

Cohen said on Thursday (9/21/00) that equity-market concerns about higher oil prices, a weak euro and corporate profits are ''overdone'' and will be ``short-lived.'' Cohen said the backdrop for the U.S. economy ``remains quite favorable'' and reiterated her year-end price target of 1575 for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and 1650 by mid 2001. "The intermediate and long-term view remains bright."

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October 3, 2000 Reuters

S&P 500... 1426
Dow... 10719
Nasdaq... 3455

Cohen said on Tuesday the hard-pressed technology sector is poised for a comeback within the next several weeks as profit outlooks strengthen and relative valuations improve. ``We believe that the backdrop for investments in technology is favourable,'' Abby Joseph Cohen said in a conference call, reevaluating a sector she had labeled as overvalued in March. Goldman's technology researchers said during the call they favoured three segments of the industry: storage systems providers, network equipment and Internet infrastructure software suppliers.

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October 5, 2000 Money.com

We're not bearish--we think the economy is in very, very good shape. We're no longer overweight in technology. Last year we were saying that tech and telecom combined should be 35% of a portfolio, and the weighting on the S&P 500 for those sectors was 28%. By March, the S&P 500 weighting was 42%. We're still at 35%. While technology is a solid place to be invested, it's not the valuation opportunity it used to be. Pharmacological and biotechnology stocks are, in many ways, the next area of great scientific development. U.S. companies are right at the top. Today's volatility is normal. We now have a situation where people are paying about what they should be for stocks.

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October 13, 2000 Reuters

Cohen said the recent stock market slump is overdone and makes stocks a good buy, especially because a strong U.S. economy will keep boosting corporate profit growth. The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index -- which closed on Thursday at 1325.21 --is undervalued by 15 percent, said Cohen. She reiterated her year-end S&P 500 Index target of 1575. ``Importantly, our economic outlook still calls for real GDP growth averaging 3 percent to 4 percent in coming quarters, close to the trend rate suggested by productivity gains and labor force growth,'' Cohen said in a research note sent to clients and the press. The S&P 500 index was at 1,351.09. The Dow Jones industrial average hit 10,119. The Nasdaq composite rose almost 2 percent in morning trading, after falling 3 percent to 3,074 on Thursday. Stocks on Thursday hit year-lows on escalating violence in the Middle East, which sent oil prices surging. The market was also spooked by a warning of Home Depot Inc. that profit growth would slow. Recent corporate earnings warnings, which have sent shivers through the markets, are overshadowing solid profit growth at many companies, Cohen said. Goldman's valuation for the S&P 500 has assumed there will be a moderation in profit growth to about 8 percent from 20 percent, and a rise in core inflation, Cohen said.

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October 13, 2000 CNBC

With the correction in technology stocks we've had, she says she is now comfortable with their 35% market weighting of Technology. That would imply she needs to bring her tech allocation up to 35% since it would have declined about 1/3 to 25% or so with the recent correction.

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October 23, 2000 CNBC

Cohen says there are three sectors that hold some short-term opportunities: energy, technology and financial services.

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November 14, 2000 Report from Europe on CNBC

S&P 500... 1382
Dow... 10681
Nasdaq... 3138

"Today the markets are already priced for imperfection," said Cohen. Cohen said equity valuations are the most attractive they have been all year and that the Standard & Poor's 500 Index is 15 percent undervalued looking ahead for the next 12 months. The benchmark index closed at 1473.13 on Monday. NASDAQ closed under $3000 yesterday and is now up $110 at $3077. Cohen advised a market weight position, or 35 percent of the model portfolio, in technology and telecommunications stocks. "The fundamental picture remains favorable," Cohen said. "As expected, economic and profit growth have slowed from last winter's rapid pace, yet remain at or above trend rates."

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Year end 2000:

S&P 500... 1320
Dow... 10787
Nasdaq... 2470

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January 2, 2001 Wall Street Journal, research report

Three imbalances impeded stock price performance during much of 2000. These are now largely corrected, setting the stage for a more favorable market environment in 2001. First, economic growth has slowed. Second, aggregate equity valuation now suggests that the S&P 500 is roughly 15% undervalued, compared to moderate overvaluation last winter. Third, the wide valuation disparities between different groups of stocks have dramatically narrowed. These three imbalances have been largely, if not completely, adjusted. As such, we conclude that the equity market should be a friendlier place going forward. We have forecasted a move to approximately trend rates by the fourth quarter of 2000. These are 3% real GDP and 7% S&P 500 operating profit growth. Our longstanding forecast for 2001 S&P 500 operating earnings per share is $60.00, an increase of about 7% from our $56.00 estimate for 2000. [reality - 2001 operating earnings came in at $45, and reported earnings at $24] We believe that the S&P 500 will be at fair value at about 1650 in 12 months. we expect the global economy to continue to grow, despite the deceleration in the United States. [reality - a three-quarter US recession began in March 2001]

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January 5, 2001 Wall Street Week

S&P 500... 1298
Dow... 10662
Nasdaq... 2407

Cohen: "I would be looking at stocks right now." "We would now be overweight in technology relative to the market weight. We have made no change in our technology position for a year and a half." Sounds like her year end target for S&P is about 1660, - market overweight in techs, and is high on financials now, eschewing oils.

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January 20, 2001 Barrons

"In March of last year we indicated to our clients that we were dramatically underweight in technology in our model portfolio. A few weeks ago we said we were overweight once again, because we think there are some good values.

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February 8, 2001 Reuters, speech to the Association of American Publishers.

Cohen said on Thursday the economic slowdown in the last few months was more pronounced than she expected but doubted the nation was headed into a recession. [reality - that's exactly where the nation was headed, just a month later]

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March 7, 2001 Reuters

S&P 500... 1261
Dow... 10729
Nasdaq... 2223

Cohen told clients on Wednesday to use their cash to buy stocks, reversing the call she made last March. Cohen raised the equity allocation in Goldman's model portfolio to 70 percent from 65 percent, and reduced the cash position to zero from 5 percent. [reality - just as the recession was beginning, as per NBER] ``Many of the imbalances identified during the past year have now been largely redressed,'' Cohen said. Moderate overvaluation of the S&P 500 has been followed by notable undervaluation, she added. And she reiterated her year-end predictions, saying the S&P 500 will rise 31% from where we are to 1650. The Dow will pop 23% to 13,000, she said.

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April 18, 2001

S&P 500... 1253
Dow... 10615
Nasdaq... 2182

Abby has lowered her targets slightly but expects reacceleration of profits later this year. Cohen cut her 2001 targets on the S&P 500 to 1,550 from 1,650 and on the Dow to 12,500 from 13,000. Cohen also lowered her longstanding 2001 estimate for S&P 500 operating EPS to $56.50 from $60 [reality - 2001 operating earnings came in at $45, and reported earnings at $24] and introduced her 2002 EPS forecast of $61.50. [reality - 2002 estimated operating EPS are $51]

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August 1, 2001

Cohen advises Tech 30% of your portfolio vs S&P500 tech weighting of 18% (30/18-1 = 67% over weighted). Cohen thinks worst is not over, but we'll see an "earnings recovery" in 2002. Year end DJIA target 12,500.

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August 21, 2001 CBSM

S&P 500... 1172
Dow... 10320
Nasdaq... 1883

Cohen lowered her year-end target for the S&P 500 ($SPX) to 1,500 from the previous 1,550. That's an upside of 28 percent from current levels. Her year-end target for the Dow Industrials ($INDU) remains at 12,500, representing a gain of 21 percent from current levels. Cohen also slashed on Tuesday her S&P operating earnings-per-share projections to $51 from $56.50 for 2001 [reality - $45] and to $56 from $61.50 for 2002. [reality - estimated are $51]

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September 24, 2001 CNNfn

S&P 500... 1002
Dow... 8603
Nasdaq... 1499

Cohen, raised the recommended equity weighting in her model portfolio to 75% from 70%, as she lowered her recommended bond allocation to 22% from 27%. In a note titled, "Stand up! Time to Buy Stocks," Cohen wrote: "Although short interest rates are likely to fall further, we expect equities to outperform bonds." Because she believes long-term earnings-growth trends haven't been disrupted, Cohen considers stocks notably undervalued.

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October 5, 2002 Reuters

S&P 500... 1071
Dow... 9119
Nasdaq... 1605

Cohen on Friday said she sees the Standard & Poor's 500 index (.SPX) rising as much as 33 percent by the end of next year. Cohen sees the index closing the 2002 year between 1,300 and 1,425.

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Year end 2001:

S&P 500... 1148
Dow... 10021
Nasdaq... 1950

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March 8, 2002 CNBC

Cohen ups her market allocation.

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April 29, 2002

Abby today is reiterating her 2002 year end targets. DJIA: 11,300 and S&P500: 1,300.

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May 2, 2002 CNBC

Cohen says the market is "modestly undervalued." Raises her DJIA target to 12,500 and maintains S&P 500 at 1,300.