THREAD IS CLOSED! --- Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 11K+

Top 7172. Jan 14, 2001 6:57 AM

» retiredinprescot - Roger Arnold

Do any of you here know of a guy named Roger Arnold? He has a weekly national radio financial show like Moneytalk BUT he's giving specific adivice like Bob Brinker USED to. I just caught the last half hour of his show (early Sun Morning in N. Arizona) and this arnold guy seems to be very intelligent and rational. He's saying NO RECESSION in 2001 and quote him on that and he's also saying Hi Yield bonds should be bought now and that NOW is MOABO (I'm paraphrasing a bit).
If any of you know anything about this guy I'd like to hear it because his show is like Brinker's show used to be and I'm getting more and more disappointed with Bob's show. The Sat. show yesterday was three hours of avoiding any discussion that would help his subscribers, especially those of us who faithfully followed his mid October trade "buy immediately QQQs" advice.
Thanks.....

-- posted by retiredinprescot

Top 7173. Jan 14, 2001 6:59 AM

» Rande - The "Promised Land" of investing isn't the "land of critical ma

The "Promised Land" of investing isn't the "land of critical mass." No "promises" or assistance needed for that -- anyone can get there with simple prudent asset allocation, diversification, and long-term PATIENCE. No, the promised land is, quite simply, Phase IV.

-- posted by Rande

Top 7174. Jan 14, 2001 7:25 AM

» Kirk - Reason I Changed Title Back

Hello Folks

I am amazed that many are too illiterate to understand, even after some explained it for them, that I was making a deliberate insult on the people that post like trailer trash on this thread with the title "Bob Brinker and Jerry Springer Discussion Thread".

I actually thought it was unfair to Jerry Springer as he doesn't tell his TV audience that his portfolio has a low beta when in truth what he told his followers to do is jump all over a very risky QQQ trade that significantly increased their portfolio beta (as well as decreased their net worth).

Jerry Springer is supposed to be a happily married man that treats his wife with respect. What he DOES is provide an opportunity for trailer trash to get on TV and entertain other trailer trash. Jerry Springer is a successful entertainer. His name in the thread was my way of saying we had too many trailer trash posts that were going unchallenged by our nontraiiler trash regulars.

Rande and I get email from people asking us to help understand what they should be doing and to keep posting on this site. When Rande posts facts, most just start name calling and last night was the first time I actually read someone give a fair rebuttal without calling him names. That post went a great way in showing that complainers could have a fair debate without acting like trailer trash so I felt the name change back to the original was appropriate.

Please read this post and this post.

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-- posted by Kirk

Top 7175. Jan 14, 2001 7:29 AM

» smile_1 - Della Re: No Teeth? & Paul sometimes misses taking his meds

In response to message posted by DellaO:

Hello my friend. As usual you made me smile this am with your sense of humor.

BTW Paul is harmless, his posts are idiotic at best most of the time, and he takes pride in getting to people. He is kind of like how I would be if I were in need of prozac. He can be helpful sometimes too which is his good side. Seek the good side.

Give him space to ramble, engage him in debating facts. Those who attempt to trade insults with him are wasting their time.

Not that you need my advice, :-)

Just scrolling back looking for a post I made yesterday on Beta & Brinker's comment about his performance. I figured out what Bob did regarding his beta comment yesterday. My initial take was correct. Will post my comments on the Beta misrepresentation some time today.

Take care my friend.

-- posted by smile_1

Top 7176. Jan 14, 2001 7:35 AM

» LibertyPi - Re: The "Promised Land" of investing isn't the "land of critica

In response to message posted by Rande:

Rande, what is your guaranteed yearly return, and for what number of years must one commit?

Thanks in advance,
LibertyPilgrim

-- posted by LibertyPi

Top 7177. Jan 14, 2001 7:39 AM

» Kirk - W5000 Bear Market?

Yesterday I heard Bob say we had a bear market in the Wilshire 5000 because it went down 20% from its peak for a single day.

Does anyone else define a bear market as a single day event?

From the chart, AND IF YOU STICK TO 20% for W5000 (which I don't think is good since it has higher volatility than S&P500) I would have to agree we are in a W5000 bear market IF we return to the Mid Dec lows... I consider the few days we were at "new highs" in March and the days were were down over 10% as "capitulation days" that usually blow off at the extremes and probably shouldn't count unless you bought at the high day or sold at the bottom day.

Still no bear in the S&P500

Remember, the W5000 has a higher beta due to mid and small cap component so it should have a wider range than 20% to be considered a bear....

Bob says it is a bear,
I'm not comfortable with that definition
what do others say?

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Perhaps he is right as it has been off its high for over 6 months and it was down over 20%, even if for only a brief moment in time?

-- posted by Kirk

Top 7178. Jan 14, 2001 7:46 AM

» Rande - Re: Della Re: No Teeth? & Paul sometimes misses taking his meds

In response to message posted by smile_1:

smile,

As you probably know, the "beta debate" is as old as the hills in the anals (did I spell that right?) of finance. Beta started out as the holy grail of modern portfolio theory, only to be attacked time and time again as "suspect." And, so, the debate rages on. Here's my take, as someone who went through it all including the graduate courses that require you to calculate beta from scratch and do such things as figure out the standard deviation of a multi-asset portfolio using the long-hand formulas, rather than a computer. MPT is not the equivalent of a magic black box (which doesn't exist) and the "art" (it IS as much, if not more, art as science) of investing remains. BUT, we do the best we can in an arena fraught with uncertainty. Risk, for example, is defined by the academics as volatility. Well, nobody minds volatility to the upside, do they? No, it's the pain of loss that matters to most. It's a hard sell to explain to investors that what goes up rapidly may also come down rapidly. But the fact remains (until someone can irrefutably demonstrate otherwise) that risk and return ARE commensurate. And so it gets back to what we are willing to live with as investors. That's where the art comes in. We can talk beta and risk untill we're blue in the face, seeking to measure this return or that return to the fourth decimal. I like the KISS principle (keep it simple, sweetheart -- not, stupid) -- allocate your assets appropriately, diversify, check up on it all once in awhile and IGNORE the rest.

-- posted by Rande

Top 7179. Jan 14, 2001 7:48 AM

» Rande - Re: Re: The "Promised Land" of investing isn't the "land of cri

In response to message posted by LibertyPi:

LiPi,

No guarantees by way of numbers. But, I can guarantee you peace of mind if you take a "who gives a rat's heinie" view to all the noise. As for timeframe, it's simple -- the rest of your life.

-- posted by Rande

Top 7180. Jan 14, 2001 7:59 AM

» RamblinMan - I Regret I have But one Life to Give

Well, I got kicked off the Bob Brinker thread, but they did change the name and dropped off the Jerry Springer. I like to think I had something to do with it. I gotta go, you can thank me later.

-- posted by RamblinMan