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» JenL_2 - Nasdaq Bear Strategies

In response to message posted by SLO219:

Hi Slo - Welcome to the group! I've been reading the whole interesting discussion on Nasdaq Bear strategies that you initiated yesterday with your "Hi all" post. This thread moves so fast with several discussions going on at once, so I've untangled the Nasdaq Bear Strategies discussion and re-posted it over to the "Nasdaq - QQQ" thread. How about continuing the discussion on that thread so it doesn't get lost....Jen

-- posted by JenL_2

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» DanG_6 - Re: Relax - QQQ outcome still up in the air

In response to message posted by Mark_J:

Mark, just like you, I have supported BB's philosophy for long term investing, and for the sell call in January.

But we part company with the QQQ trade. You say that those with long term horizons know that it is still early. Mark, this is NOT a long term investment! It IS a short term trade with a (so far) very limited time window measured in months, not years.

You also say that "in a bear market the goal is to preserve capital and make money on the countertrend rallies." I'd agree with the first part, but whose idea is it that a goal in a bear market is to make money on the countertrend rallies? Bob never spoke of this "goal" until just recently, and so far his attempt at fulfilling it have done anything BUT preserve capital. Instead they have plowed up to 50% of the "preserved capital" into one of the riskiest trades one could ever imagine, using a short time frame, and with no thought to downside risk.

Those who followed Bob's advice in January, including me, DO have a ton of cash on the sidelines UNLESS they ALSO followed his advice in October with up to 50% of that "ton".

Mark, I'm willing to give credit where credit is due, and I have. But to spin this QQQ call into some kind of gift from heaven is just plain WRONG in my opinion. Bob should get back to basics and leave this short term stuff to traders that at least know how to protect capital.

-- posted by DanG_6

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» Will_L - Well sportfans here we go--after reading the thread and respondi

Well sportfans here we go--after reading the thread and responding to Liberty's sensitivities I enjoy reading the take of the believers in Brinker who give it some thought.

Richard seems rather upset with the cut and run after making the QQQ recommendation by Brinker. Obviously he is not totally satisfied with my updates here that say there is no bulletin. I have been told by many believers as long as there is no bulletin, nothing has changed. It is amazing though how forgiving some folks are. Richard also says.

"I'm going to hold for 6 months and see how it plays out ( we owe it to bob) then we can talk bad about his poor call on this qqq trade"

Now if a short term trade that should be nearly over if you believed his intial bulletin of 2-4 months is underwater by 35% instead of up 20, do you have to wait to the bitter end to say this wasn't very bright? Maybe some do.Then there is Mark, who always trys his darndest to spin things to look rosey if Brinker is behind it. This morning he had a real gem of tortured logic.

"While short-term investors like to think that this QQQ trade is done, and it was a debacle, those with longer-term investment horizons trying to build wealth for the future know that it is still early. Sure, the entry point was off. Much like in 1998. But the end result is what is most important.
Remember, in a bear market the goal is to preserve capital and make money on the countertrend rallies. Those "buy and hold forever" investors are doing neither. They're just losing money. (Maybe that's where most of the anger comes from.) But those who followed the MT advice back last January still have a ton of cash on the sidelines, with a small amount in this QQQ trade trying to make some gravy on the countertrend rally."

I couldn't make anything up that sounded as silly Mark. LOL You start off by minimizing the effects of this QQQ trade--saying "the entry point was off". Hello--off 35%!!!
Then you make the rather curious statment "The end result is all that is important."

You go on then to say how dumb all those poor buy and holders are and how bright these folks playing the countertrend rallys in the QQQ's are--which is down much more than any of the index buy and holders.

Let's see in your twisted mind, it's a good idea to buy and hold trades that go down 35% as long as some day they return to a postive performance. But for someone to hold onto an index that goes down 10 percent and if he sold he would have to pay taxes of probably 15-18% on the gains, is big time stupid. Dang I'm glad I'm not as bright as you are then!! Now Mark--please you ususally do better and post some stuff that makes sense.

I lifted a post from over on the SI thread that is not as detailed as Rande's updates but puts some perspective on this stuff.

To: Chris J. Horne who wrote (10396)
From: Chris J. Horne Tuesday, Jan 2, 2001 9:41 PM ET
Reply # of 11411

How Bob's calls are working out:

Sell signal of Jan 11th (through Dec 31):

Change (%)
DJIA -6.4%
S&P 500 - 8.4%
NASDAQ -36.4%
Wilshire 5000 -9.8%

QQQ Buy Signal of Oct 17 (through Dec 31):

Change
QQQ -25.4% ----> Not too damn good!

Wow Mark--looks like he managed to snag 2/3 of the Nasdaq loss and only be in the market 6 weeks-that's effeciency. LOL

-- posted by Will_L

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» JenL_2 - Re: PART II OF THE STARSHIP MONEYTALK

In response to message posted by JeffChristy:

Hi Jeff - Welcome to the Group! Your "Part II of the Starship MoneyTalk" shows that one creative post generates others. I copied it to the "Post of the Week" thread:

http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...

.....Jen

-- posted by JenL_2

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» ACousins - This is not funny

In response to message posted by LibertyPi:

No one that I know of is saying that, right now, the last QQQ trade was good...but it may yet prove to be a winner

It's statements like these, in the face of facts, that make every other statement of yours look incorrect and unbelieveable.

There is no way this trade will be a winner. People have tried to make you understand opportunity cost, stop losses, entry/exit points, timeframes, etc. Instead, you still insist that this can be a "winner" because someone might get out with a gain sometime in the future.

Instead of starting with facts and proceeding to conclusions, you begin with a conclusion and try to distort facts to support it. Perhaps you really don't understand how brain-washed you sound to others.

-- posted by ACousins

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» walkerman - Re: Well sportfans here we go--after reading the thread and resp

In response to message posted by Will_L:

Will L...you remind me soooooooooooooo much of "Naz" and "Bull Run" who excoriated Brinker all through February, and much of March. Their opinions and statements are now known to be nonsense.

-- posted by walkerman

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» ACousins - Re: Relax - QQQ outcome still up in the air

In response to message posted by Mark_J:

those with longer-term investment horizons trying to build wealth for the future know that it is still early.

Actually, it is quite late and getting near the end. Except...oh yes the timeframe was pushed out.

Start date: mid October
First possible end date: mid December
Last possible end date: mid February

Revised first possible end date: mid January
Revised last possible end date: mid April

Most got into this thinking that it could be over by now or at least in a month or so.

-- posted by ACousins

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» Mark_J - Re: Re: Relax - QQQ outcome still up in the air

In response to message posted by DanG_6:

Dan, I almost agree with you, but I'd call this QQQ trade an "intermediate term" trade. I guess this is just playing with semantics a bit, but I think "short term" trading is a position that you hold for a few hours or up to a few weeks. Once you get beyond that, then you're looking at more of an intermediate term trade.

The short term can get sideswiped by a news story, acts of God, an election, energy crisis... But the intermediate term smooths those things out. Certainly the October signal was premature, but it looked good on the charts at the time. I think it got sideswiped with the election, energy concerns, earnings warnings, etc. There was no break in the bad news. Some say that investors are attempting to price in a Bush Recession II.

But really, I'm holding complete judgement on this until later. We're talking about 10-12% of a total portfolio in this trade. Risky for sure, but lets keep hope alive...

-- posted by Mark_J

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» Choctaw - Re: Re: Well sportfans here we go--after reading the thread and

In response to message posted by walkerman:

What ever happen to "Bull Run". I wonder if he is still in the market. One of the NASDAQ bulls on the Brinker thread told me I was a fool to invest in GNMAs and I should only invest in the NASDAQ because it only goes up. Did not get in the QQQ trade - it is not my type of investing.

-- posted by Choctaw

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» VortexStorm - MarketTimer

I see that MarketTimer has been moved up 3 days it was Jan.8 now it's the 5th.I can't wait to see what's soo important.

-- posted by VortexStorm

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