THREAD IS CLOSED! --- Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 11K+

Top 5154. Jan 2, 2001 3:30 PM

» Mark_J - Where is Waldo?

Many folks are probably entering the New Year wondering what their investment strategy should be for the new year. Where should they invest? The answer is the same as it was last year, and the year before, and the year before. Take a long-term investing approach, allocate between equities and fixed income investments as appropriate for your age, buy quality in fixed income instruments, and diversify your equity holdings across a large index. Take advantage of 401(k) plans and IRA to the best of your ability. Get rid of credit card debt and pay yourself first. It is just that simple. (Keep it simple, right?)

Many folks on this thread take the long term approach to be fully invested during bull markets, and to protect their assets during bear markets. This was certainly prudent in 2000. Others on this thread believe that this is impossible, and maybe Brinker just got lucky with the January 2000 call. The debate will continue on I guess.

Who knows where we will be headed going forward, but reject the knee-jerk instinct to do anything drastic based on emotions. It's a long-term thing.

-- posted by Mark_J

Top 5155. Jan 2, 2001 3:34 PM

» LibertyPi - Re: Re: Re: Re: Open Letter to Liberty Pilgrim

In response to message posted by ACousins:

Hmmmm.....

Just ignore me.....

Yeah, just bury your head in the sand.

QQQ was 95 when Bob gave his sell signal. Now Bob said to get back in with what, 12% max at 75.

Do the math. 100% sold at 95. 12% of that repurchased at a 20 point better price, the other 88% safely drawing 6+% in a MM.

Yes, you best ignore me. Wouldn't do to have logic in lynch mob...

LibertyPilgrim

-- posted by LibertyPi

Top 5156. Jan 2, 2001 3:37 PM

» LibertyPi - Re: Where is Waldo?

In response to message posted by Mark_J:

Great post, Mark_J.

A welcome breath of unbiased fresh air. I hope you continue to post here.

LibertyPilgrim

-- posted by LibertyPi

Top 5157. Jan 2, 2001 3:39 PM

» lasjok - Re: Another Open Letter To Bob Brinker

In response to message posted by Centigrade233:

How did the "Sophisticated investors" know to exit?

-- posted by lasjok

Top 5158. Jan 2, 2001 3:50 PM

» JeffChristy - THE STARSHIP MONEYTALK

PART I
These are the voyages of the Starship Moneytalk. Our long term mission to seek out and find the planet of Critical Mass .
Captains log star date Jan 2000:
We have made great progress over the last ten years and crew morale remains high. Long range sensors now indicate potential problems lie ahead. I have ordered that we drop out of warp and proceed at impulse power. I am concerned that the morale of the crew might begin to suffer when they see how little progress we make in the year ahead.
Captains log star date summer 2000:
The crew is becoming restless due to our lack of progress . I am considering changing course and taking a short cut through the Romulan neutral zone. This will require the use of the QQQ shields. While this is a risky maneuver, I have a plan if we encounter trouble.
First officer Justa plot a course into the neutral zone and deploy the QQQ shield.
Shields are up captain and functioning at 86%. Continue on course first officer unless the shields fall below 82%. If that happens get us out of the neutral zone a quick as possible.
Captains log Oct 2000
Member of the crew are unhappy that we left the neutral zone too early. I am plotting a new course that will take once again into the neutral zone.
First officer Justa plot a course to the star Tanias. But Captain that will take us back into the neutral zone. I know we must deploy the qqq shields immediately. But captain won't that be risky?
That's an order first officer. Bob out.

-- posted by JeffChristy

Top 5159. Jan 2, 2001 3:57 PM

» pete_man01 - Brinker better have some damn good comments Jan 8

Despite my hateful feeling toward Brinker for advising me to get into this dumb QQQ trade, I am very curious how he'll spin this mess in his Jan 8th newsletter. If he doesn't admit his mistake at a $52 QQQ, then I will discontinue his newsletter and make sure he personally understands how disappointed I am in his service.

-- posted by pete_man01

Top 5160. Jan 2, 2001 3:57 PM

» SLO219 - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Hi all

In response to message posted by Will_L:

Will,

The idea is to use the Rydex funds to
(1) bring down the average cost basis on the Qs (via the long fund)
and/or to
(2) participate in the down move on the NAZ (via the short fund)
and/or
(3) use selective shorts to capture the likely down move of the VERY high P/E stocks that remain.

At some point the NAZ will bottom and the shorts can be covered and the short fund sold. The Qs can be held for a longer period since some recovery is likely. Gains from the shorts can offset the Q losses. The Qs are a better long term hold since they are rebalanced over time (additions and deletions made to reflect capitalization) and the companies are solid. Also, the Qs are somewhat diversified across tech sectors. I think that we are in a rotating tech bubble collapse scenario... Dot.com's, internet, storage, optical networking, biotech, etc. Each area will reach its real worth eventually.

I think that if you still have some "dry powder" remaining, the most conservative solution is to DCA into the Velocity Fund to bring down your cost basis in the Qs. I would sell if anything like a breakeven position is reached. I am not a trader. In fact, I've been rather conservative in my investments to this point. The QQQ thing is an aberration for me. I'm suggesting this as a defensive strategy only. I have been doing it for the last 7 weeks.
Check out the Rydex Funds at www.rydexfunds.com. This strategy is not complex; it uses a derivative based mutual fund that tracks 2X the Qs... so, you only need half the capital for hedging purposes. Note that the purpose of the fund is to track the QQQs... that's ALL that it does. Brinker should have recommended DCAing into this fund instead of buying the Qs outright. It would have been a lot less painful for his subscribers. I'd appreciate any other ideas.

On another note; I have no problem with diversification but the problem with a buy and hold strategy is that it does not take into account the possibility of a very long term Bear Market. An investor who DCAed into the NIKKEI in 1985 is STILL under water. That's 16 years. I intend to be retired in 16 years. The NAZ looks a lot like the NIKKEI to me.

Incidentally, if SNOWMANWINS is posting here, please let me know.

-SLO219

-- posted by SLO219

Top 5161. Jan 2, 2001 3:59 PM

» JeffChristy - PART II OF THE STARSHIP MONEYTALK

PART II OF THE STARSHIP MONEYTALK
Star date oct 2000
First officer Justa: Captain we have entered the neutral zone and the qqq shields are up and functioning at 84%. Captain a Romulan warbird has decloaked and has started to fire on us. Shield are down to 70%. Messages from outside the ship are beginning to criticize your decision to reenter the Neutral zone.
Captain Bob: order communications officer Bob jr to cut off all external communication and allow only communications from within the ship. First officer Justa: Captain we have taken another hit and shields ar now down below 70%. Members of the crew are becoming more restless and some are upset with your decision.
Captain Bob: Those ungrateful @#$%"s. I will talk to chief engineer Pooba and start a rumor the I will relinquish command at the end of the year. They all know that there is no other person in starfleet that is qualified to replace me. That should give them something to take their minds off of our current problem. Tell the crew to stay the course.
Star date dec 2000
First officer Justa: Captain we are getting a great number of complaints form the crew. Some crew members have left the ship using the escape pods. Other crew members plan to get off when we reach the next star base.
Captain Bob: Tell Bob jr to cut off all communications from within the ship. First officer Justa identify the ten most disgruntle crew members and tell them that they have been selected for an away team. You will head up the team. Take a shuttle craft and take them to the nearest class M planet. You will then sneak back to the shuttle craft and leave them stranded on the planet. This should sent a message to the remainder of the crew. We will continue to stay the course.
Stardate jan 2001
First officer Just: Captain the Romulan fleet is continuing to attack us. Shields are down to 53%. I think this is the elite attack squadron commanded by romulan high commander Greenspan. Captain we are approaching the star Tanias. This constellation looks familiar Captain. what is it's name.
Captain Bob: It is URSA Major.
First officer Justa: Oh no, how could you have led us there. URSA Major is the Great Bear.

-- posted by JeffChristy

Top 5162. Jan 2, 2001 4:06 PM

» Felipe - Re: PART II OF THE STARSHIP MONEYTALK

In response to message posted by JeffChristy:

LOL....Great story!

-- posted by Felipe