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» Rande - Did somebody mention Hulbert earlier?

Did somebody mention Hulbert earlier?

"Investors often develop a cultlike devotion to one investment guru or another. And when they do so, objectivity goes out the window. That isn't to say that the investors' psychological needs should be dismissed. After all, investing is an arena filled with uncertainty; it's only natural for people to seek approval and affirmation in such an environment. But it is hazardous to one's wealth to seek such psychological security at the price of objectivity."

Mark Hulbert in "Wearing Your Heart on Your Portfolio" from the NY Times (2/6/00)

Here's another good one while we're on good quotes:

"The market is never wrong and it cannot be defeated. It is selfless. It does not experience feelings of victory or defeat. The market is a cold battlefield and its participants are engaged in a life-or-death battle against themselves."

Josh Lukeman in The Market Maker's Edge

-- posted by Rande

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» _grasshopper_ - Re: Re: Re: A Question

In response to message posted by Felipe:

Let me (hopefully) preempt the argument that this QQQ trade was not part of his longer term timing model.

You can argue this point though. The QQQ trade was based on market internals, while the long term timing model is based on things like market sentiment and money supply. It is possible only one set of indicators is flawed.

I'm primarily interested in knowing whether you have the same level of confidence in Brinker.

Definitely not. The poor wording of the bulletin, being censored on the BB.com website and having my subscription offer revoked makes me wonder if BB is losing it.

Grasshopper

-- posted by _grasshopper_

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» Karin_ - Re: The adventures of FelipeMan!!!!

In response to message posted by Felipe:

You are too fanny for words Felipe!
Irreplaceable!
Thank you Felipe.
http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Bank...

-- posted by Karin_

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» Gadfly - cancel that subscription, PLEASE

I just crucnched the numbers for the effect of the
brinker experiment on my portfolio. In January 00,
I sold 60% of equities like a good little lemming.
I sold an additional 5% when the master spoke.
Not completely brainwashed, I've been in an out of
qqq's three times, currently holding 4% with an
avg. cost of $67, down 20% on the trade. Rough
figures show the interest gained was cancelled by
taxes and the qqq loss. My sale of spy, mdy, and
presx, netted a gain of 6.2%, versus not selling
anything. Tomorow I next day fedex an Exchange
Reguest Form to Vanguard, exchanging from prime to
VTSMX, restoring my original U.S.A. equity posi-
tion.

Regarding my market timing adventure: I feel like
a drunk,that convinced he could drive the twenty
miles home, gets behind the wheel and somehow
wakes up the next morning asleep in his driveway.
Actually, aside from not feeling particularly
bright, I most regret the loss of time, that was
spent neurotically focused on the next marketimer,
the next bulletin, and the next broadcast, the
next one day one hour TA qqq timing model,and the
next post on that now defunct web sight.

Gad-

-- posted by Gadfly

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» dija - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Lets talk numbers

In response to message posted by Will_L:

I haven't had a chance to respond to any posts directed at me because I've been working all day!
(I don't know how you all get the italics to come up when you quote the person you are responding to, so I'll do it the old-fashioned way):

That is exactly right! It is amazing how many "experts" did NOT recommend a fully invested position from 1993 through 1999.

I agree!

I don't really "follow" his advice. I listen to it, think about it, and make my own decisions. I must admit, though, that whenever I've gone against his advice, I've usually been wrong. Just one example: I sold an emerging markets fund, a U.S. fund and a stock (about 30% of my portfolio in all) in Oct. 1999 because I thought OTHER PEOPLE would bail out due to Y2K fears, even though he urged people not to do that.