THREAD IS CLOSED! --- Bob Brinker Free Discussion Site 11K+

Top 5024. Jan 1, 2001 3:35 PM

» Felipe - Re: Re: Re: Re: A Question

In response to message posted by JFK_Boston:

"No one to guide me..."

If you sold your internet stocks in March, sold your opticals in July, and was out of the market this fall, perhaps you should be guiding rather than guided smile

Sounds like you're doing more than OK on your own. Maybe you should make the MOABO call!

-- posted by Felipe

Top 5025. Jan 1, 2001 3:51 PM

» Will_L - Re: Re: Re: A Question

In response to message posted by LibertyPi:

I'm just an ole country boy Liberty, I probably do miss a lot of things including your point. So I'll look at your post and try again.

"Will, you consistently miss my point. Who has said you can't time the market? Several people in this thread. So, if that is a given -- that one cannot "time the market" -- then what can you do? See, my question was rhetorical. Anything other than a hard and fast formula can be construed as market timing. LibertyPilgrim"

Your question to which I responded was :

"If you are not allowed as an investor to "time the market," how do you make your investment decisions? Roll dice? Cut cards? "

I was as serious as a heart attack when I said I was unaware of anyone saying you are not "allowed to time the market". That is quite apart from thinking that it can be done time after time and add value to a portfolio. So I was responding in the only way I knew how, it wasn't meant to be flip and wasn't meant to miss your point. It is what I believe.

I thought your angst was that those of us who think Brinker is selling a newsletter rather than sound portfolio managment were telling you that you were "not allowed" to do whatever you pleased. I assure you nobody really cares so in that sense you are "allowed". I and many others think that trying to time is just as fruitful as rolling the dice as you mentioned.

Though perhaps still missing the answer you would like to hear from me--I think I am consistant. If not lemme know and I'll try again.

-- posted by Will_L

Top 5026. Jan 1, 2001 4:07 PM

» Will_L - Liberty

Perhaps the answer that I gave isn't so bad, it's just not what you want to hear. I too try to "outdo" the market. I'm sure we all do. I do so by picking stocks. Until this year I thought I was doing quite well. But I underperformed the broad market --not by a lot but by a few points in the equity portion of my investments.

In that I am in good company. Warren Buffet stumbled for a couple years--did he change--did he jump into dot coms and techs? Nope, he pretty much held the same portfolio, bought a company or two and listened patiently as a number of gurus said he had gotten a little too long in the tooth and the financial world had passed him by. I think he was up 18% this year. He stuck to what works for him. He didn't do any timing or trading-he held and bought what he thought were companies at good valuations. Last I heard he doesn't expect great returns going forward but I'm sure ole Warren "expects" to beat the indexes--he's one of the few who have.

Oh I'd love to have sold all tech in late feb. early march and went into long bonds, utilities and tobacco. Then shorted the techs down from March to May. Went long techs in late may and not sold at 84. Went to cash sept 1--and sold short the tech sector when my contraindicator Brinker sent his magic bullet-in.

However that "ain't" going to happen. I think for those who don't remember the 70's and 80's where there were bad years, it is easy to think that if you didn't have a good year in the market,you needed to "do something". For some that is timing and trading. Perhaps over the short term it will work. I rather suspect for most sticking to an asset allocation, using index funds or diversifying, buying what seems a bargain and compliments your portfolio in a dollar cost averaging approach will work best. Buffet has done much better than Brinker and all other gurus- and he doesn't trade or time. Sometimes it's best to just sit still.

-- posted by Will_L

Top 5027. Jan 1, 2001 4:41 PM

» Centigrade233 - Re: A Question

In response to message posted by LibertyPi:

If you are not allowed as an investor to "time the market," how do you make your investment decisions? Roll dice? Cut cards?

HOW ABOUT DCA, BRINKER FAN????

-- posted by Centigrade233

Top 5028. Jan 1, 2001 4:45 PM

» LibertyPi - Re: Re: A Question

In response to message posted by Centigrade233:

Well, DCA would be one of the formulaic methods I mentioned earlier.

-- posted by LibertyPi

Top 5029. Jan 1, 2001 4:47 PM

» Centigrade233 - Dollar Cost Average

Liberty Pilgrim

For years brinker preached dollar cost averaging to move cash into equities, and long term holding.

Have one or two crazy calls made you forget everything he used to preach?

I suggest you read "Stocks For The Long Run" by Jeremy Siegel. That's where brinker got most of his "old" ideas, without ever giving credit to the books author, of course.

-- posted by Centigrade233

Top 5030. Jan 1, 2001 5:37 PM

» Felipe - The adventures of FelipeMan!!!!

Faster than a speeding tricycle, more powerful than your average puppy, able to leap tall buildings in his dreams.....it's FELIPEMAN.

The person that appears to everyone to be no more than a pudgy little fellow is, in fact.....well, just a pudgy little fellow. That is, until he slips into his colorful spandex sombrero which has a wonderfully trim cut! FelipeMan.....fighting for justice, the American way, and average returns in excess of 10%.

When we last left our intrepid hero, FelipeMan was busy making floral arrangements in preparation for a meeting of his wife's garden club. But behind the façade of his less-than-impressive life lay a world unknown to his family and friends. While Felipe was easy to overlook, FelipeMan was everyone's hero.

While trying to choose between a mauve and rose-colored bouquet for the centerpiece at his wife's party, Felipe hears the sound of men scuffling in the street just outside his modest adobe home. Instantly, he races to his closet where he struggles to squeeze into his sombrero. When he finally arrives outside, he finds 3 scoundrels blocking the path of a defenseless young woman....

[Young Woman] Oh, it's FelipeMan!!!!

[FelipeMan] Good evening Miss, and may I say that your blue handbag complements your shoes quite nicely.

[Young Woman] Never mind about my accessories, FelipeMan. These men are assaulting me!

[FelipeMan] Unhand her, you scoundrels.

[Bad Guy] Hey, mano, check this out. Who's the little fat guy wearing the poncho?

[FelipeMan] I'm FelipeMan, and I might add that it's a dashing sombrero, not a poncho. But enough about that. Stand aside and allow this young maiden to pass.

[Bad Guy] Whatta ya gonna do, poncho man, squash me with that belly of yours?

[FelipeMan, thinking that a diet might be in order] No. I'm going to confuse you with a riddle.

[Bad Guy] Say what?

[FelipeMan] A riddle. What starts off large, gets smaller with time, and changes from green to red in no time at all?

[Bad Guy] I don't know, and I don't care. I think we'll just grind you into little pieces instead of playing your little riddle game.

[FelipeMan] Well in that case, I'll tell you the answer....the answer is a counter-trend-bear-market-rally trade.

[Bad Guy] A counter what?

[FelipeMan] A counter-trend-bear-market-rally trade. You know, the kind you do in your tax-deferred accounts.

[Bad Guy] Whatta you talking about. I don't have a tax-whatever account.

[FelipeMan] You don't? How are you preparing for retirement? You won't be young forever. You can't mug folks much past the age of 40 or so. What will you do then? Unless you plan to be living in the slammer at taxpayer expense, you need to be aggressively investing in your future. And with your choice of careers, you need to be heavily weighted in equities because retirement will arrive sooner than you think.

[Young Woman] FelipeMan....Hello....Hello....remember me? I'm the one you're supposed to be helping here.

[Bad Guy] Hold on a minute, Lady. FelipeMan, could you help me set up one of these tax-deferred accounts.

[FelipeMan] Well, first you'll have to promise to reform your ways.

[Bad Guy] I'll reform my life, but I ain't gonna wear one of those goofy ponchos.

[FelipeMan] For the last time, it's a sombrero, and you don't have to wear one. All you have to do is click on Suite101.com and find your way to Kirk's Investing site. There are many good folks at Suite101 who can help you learn more about investments and retirement planning.

[Young Woman] FelipeMan, I subscribe to an investment newsletter but got creamed in a QQQ trade that was recommended a few months back. Most of my portfolio is still in money market funds, though.

[FelipeMan] Well why don't all of you join me over at Suite101.

___________________________________________

And so ends another happy-ever-after adventure of FelipeMan. Be sure to stay tuned for our next episode, when Will, Rande and Kirk defend our fair maidens Jen, Karin, Deanna and Tara from a shark attack.

-- posted by Felipe