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» Will_L - Rande's quotes about "generic" gurus and human behavior--"wanti

Rande's quotes about "generic" gurus and human behavior--"wanting to believe" there is a seer of the future got me to thinking how difficult it is to let go of that faith. I'm betting for many the fear of going it on their own and the difficulty they have admitting they were wrong in following a guru keeps them on the hook way past the time most outsiders would run away.

Would be curious how many of the folks paying for Brinker's advice would give him credit if the S&P never goes any lower than it has to this point and in an irregular climb continues upward to new highs over the next couple years. Let's assume for the sake of the discussion that the Nasdaq is near its lows now and it also begins a gradual climb.

Let's further assume there is therefore no mother of all buying opportunity but simply a couple years of 15 percent gains.

The Questions.

1) Would many of his followers buy the line from him that he was "right" about the "bear"--because the Nasdaq fell so deeply--ignoring the fact he said it wasn't part of his model?

2) If he kept the same basic rotation of "secular bear and moabo" going for another two year period as the market climbed slowly but surely --much like 87 through 90, the last time he was bearish, would folks keep the faith?

3) At what point would folks decide that the model isn't the crystal ball they thought
it was?

-- posted by Will_L

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» Felipe - Will

I'm betting for many the fear of going it on their own and the difficulty they have admitting they were wrong in following a guru keeps them on the hook way past the time most outsiders would run away.

You make a very interesting point. I was just reading through some of today's posts and read the interview with John Bogle. That people can cling to the ideas of an obscure radio personality when those ideas are antithetical to the investment philosophy of someone with the stature of John Bogle is beyond my comprehension. Why these people are not caught in the gravitational pull of a larger and more celestial body like Bogle is utterly amazing.

Of course, if this were not so, we wouldn't have that wonderful mystery of nature who is better known to us as Dan_G. Perhaps some measure of good comes out of everything

-- posted by Felipe

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» Kirk - Re: Will

In response to message posted by Felipe:

. Why these people are not caught in the gravitational pull of a larger and more celestial body like Bogle is utterly amazing.

I love one or two word proofs that stand on their own.

I wonder if this is too subtle as a proof or explaination?

"Las Vegas"

-- posted by Kirk

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» Felipe - Re: Re: Will

In response to message posted by Kirk:

Kirk, 1/2 a cup of Will's post mixed with a 1/4 pound of your post probably provides the answer.

Let me stick it in the oven and see if it turns into a likeness of Dan_G.

-- posted by Felipe

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» Kirk - Reno

In response to message posted by Felipe:

When I was under 21, but could pass and get in and gamble and get free drinks...

It seemed "odd" that they could afford to have all these fancy machines, huge staff, free drinks, free shows, $5 prime rib buffets, bright lights, etc. etc. and yet they were in business to let you win money from them?

The ODDs and all the BOOKS say the house has the odds in their favor... yet fancy packaging the human gullibility usually rule.

This does not apply to COMDEX in Las Vegas (MANY engineers showing latest gadgets) Engineers pack Las Vegas hotels to the gills for COMDEX and they let the gaming staff go on vacation that week! The tables are dead! The good restuarants need reservations.

-- posted by Kirk

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» Mark_J - Analysts

Well, Brinker got us out in January. But here's the latest from Goldman Sach's (that's Abby's place I believe), from CBS Marketwatch:

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) - "Downgrade" was the not-so-secret word of the day over at Goldman Sachs Monday as the investment bank slashed recommendations on no fewer than 18 stocks.
The major calls came on e-tailers including E-Toys (ETYS: news, msgs) and Internet infrastructure companies such as Covad Communications (COVD: news, msgs) .

Great job, folks, getting people out near the top - NOT. Sheesh. Please quit your day job, you're costing people money! I'm sure McDonalds is hiring skilled folks. You know, JMHO, but I think upgrades should happen at the bottom, and downgrades at the top. You know, like Brinker does. What's this horsecrap Goldman Sach's is pulling? Downgrading ETYS at $.25? What's the rationale there?

"Well, folks, why don't you take that quarter and play the slot machines?"

C'mon. This is so ridiculous. And NOBODY calls them on this stuff. I mean, they get away with murder recommending buys at the tops, and sells at the bottom. For this they charge hefty fees. I'd love to see CNBC's Mark Haynes get a hold of those clowns at Goldman Sach's on Squawk Box.

-- posted by Mark_J

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» Swan1 - Re: Re: Re: To Norman re: Mid Caps

In response to message posted by Karin_:

Karin - I have had the Schwab 1000 fund for years. It is a tax managed fund and has never had a capital gains distribution. Check it out on Moningstar. It is down for the year pretty much in line with the S&P 500.

Jack

-- posted by Swan1

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» Rob_Larsen - Re: Analysts

In response to message posted by Mark_J:

Oh yea, let's not forget how Bob got all of his loyal followers in the QQQ at the high too with 50% of their "dry powder." In the words of your illustrious leader, "Buy immediately" which translates to 84-86 to be exact.

Rob

-- posted by Rob_Larsen

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» Kirk - Where is the bear in the S&P500?

In response to message posted by Mark_J:

QQQ since 10/17/00
<img src=http://chart.bigcharts.com/bc3/intchart/... width=579 height=335>
QQQ, SPY& DIA since 10/17/00
<img src=http://chart.bigcharts.com/bc3/intchart/... width=579 height=335>

-- posted by Kirk

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» Mark_J - Re: Re: Analysts

In response to message posted by Rob_Larsen:

Eh, my cost on the cubes is in the very low 70s at this point. Losing 10% in a still-active trade is a bit different then Goldman Sach's recommending to sell ETYS at $.25. Prior to today, Goldman Sach's rated ETYS as a "market outperform." Great job, folks! Outstanding! I wonder who won the "Employee of the month" for that recommendation? Put their picture on a plaque in the entry way, and give them a Christmas bonus!

Yes, ETYS was around $80 when that stellar employee claimed "This puppy is a Market Outperform!" It went to $.25 before they decided to sell it.

Ouch. Ever hear of "stops" folks? Kee-rimany.

-- posted by Mark_J

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