Analysts, Gurus & Pundits
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» KirkL - Buffett Sees Danger In Stock Market
Wednesday March 3 2:10 AM ETBuffett Sees Danger In Stock Market
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said Tuesday the U.S. stock market had seen virtually unprecedented increases in recent years and was in a ''dangerous'' period that could see stock values drop sharply.
Stocks had risen ''terrifically'' over the past 15 years, driven higher by lower interest rates and rising return on equity, Buffett told the ABC News ''Nightline'' program.
''After a while the very act of stocks going up starts drawing in other people who get excited about the fact that their neighbor made some money ... and that's when you get into the dangerous periods,'' he said.
Asked when the bubble would burst, Buffett said, ''You never know. You know that valuations are high, by historic standard. You know that the level of speculation is high, by any historic standards, and you now that it doesn't go on forever ... but you don't know when it ends.''
Buffett told ABC's Ted Koppel the ongoing market rally had ''gathered a lot of momentum in the last few years,'' signaling that a downturn could be around the corner.
''The last three years prior to this one, when the S & P (Standard & Poor's index) has gone up 20 percent a year, that's almost unprecedented,'' he said in the television interview, filmed at a Dairy Queen restaurant in Omaha, Nebraska, where the investor lives.
Buffett's holding company, Berkshire Hathaway Inc (), owns Dairy Queen.
Buffett told ABC he had built a $30 billion endowment fund -- essentially his personal net worth -- for philanthropic purposes when he dies and said a team of six well-qualified people helped determine how that money would be put to use.
He said one area he was particularly concerned about was the proliferation of nuclear weapons and technology, and said he was funding some efforts to study the problem. But he acknowledged that he did not know how to ''attack the problem with money.''
He said his three children would receive some money from his estate after he died, but he did not believe in the ''divine right of the womb'' and felt they should prove themselves in society, rather than inherit the great wealth he has amassed in his lifetime.
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-- posted by KirkL
» KirkL - Buffett not a bear!
"Buffett Sees Danger In Stock Market" -- ReutersThe Reuters article cited in the posting above tries to make Buffett sound much more alarmist than he actually was. In fact, Buffett deftly deflected all of Koppel's invitations to cry "Wolf!", as would be expected of a great statesman of finance.
porx recollection is that, in response to Koppel's question about what a 25-yr old making $20,000 to $30,000 per year should do, Buffett mentioned an Index fund, as one possibility. However, he was practically muffling the answer into his jacket sleeve, such was his lack of real enthusiasm. Perhaps he viewed it as porc does -- the lesser evil, when compared to timing.
Yet, Buffett was quite emphatic on one point -- don't make any purchases on borrowed money. Not only does this mean not using margin, but, as he mentioned earlier in the interview, it means paying off credit card debts before committing any funds in the Market, as there is no realistic possibility of earning more in equities, at these inflated prices, as the 15% or more that credit cards charge annually.]
porc --''''>
-- posted by KirkL
» KirkL - Warren Buffett - transcript
Here is the full transcript of the "Nightline" interview with Warren Buffett :-- posted by KirkL
» KirkL - The Gaz sees $11,000 and 4%
Full StoryExerpts:
We're bullish on the stock market over the long term. Our outlook remains for an S&P 500 level of 1400. We see 11,000 for the Dow sometime within six to 12 months.
We haven't revised our forecast calling for the 10-year bond's yield to decline to 4 percent over the next six to 12 months
-- posted by KirkL
» KirkL - Testing, testing.....123
Sorry. I'll test this Gaz-link first before posting....Actually, that was a test to see if anyone was reading! We never make "mu-steakes" around here, eh? 8)
-- posted by KirkL
» KirkL - Ralph, surprise, surprise, is bullish!
'early stages of another bull market'http://www.usatoday.com/money/mphotof.htm
"..Stocks got a turbo charge Wednesday afternoon as Ralph Acampora,
director of technical research at Prudential Securities and a well-known market bull, told a group of Belgian traders that U.S. equities, especially blue-chip Dow components, are in the ''early stages of another bull market.''
Acampora said low inflation, low interest rates, the technology revolution and a peacetime economy are all supporting stocks. The fact that blue-chip companies are leading the market means ''the market's telling me that it wants to go up, because it's led by quality,'' Acampora said, predicting that the Dow will climb as high as 11,500 sometime in the third quarter...."
-- posted by KirkL
» DennisL - Ralphy
Ralphy was "in again-out again" last summer and early fall during the intermediate term correction, remember? I remember him getting on one of the financial shows like Nightly Business Report or Moneyline and predicting a Dow collapse to 4000 or 5000 or somewhere in there. Then, when the market turned up again in October, there was Ralphy "in again."Ralphy turns with every change of direction the wind blows.
-- posted by DennisL
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