Analysts, Gurus & Pundits
- DesertSage
- Slick
- Kirk
- soonertimer
- Slick
- David_Korn
- Kirk
- David_Korn
- KLR
- SPYDR22000
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» DesertSage - Ed Downs
Don't forget to check out Ed Downs' Nasdaq commentary before the market open at-- posted by DesertSage
» Slick - Laszlo Birinyi on CNBC
http://www.pbs.org/mpt/rukeyser/panel.ht...One of my favorite gurus / talking head is Laszlo. I'm going to have to paraphrase his interview on CNBC today after the market closed.
He said from a technical analysts view, things now ( with some obvious variations ) are VERY similar to 1982.
He considers this to be the start of a new bull market, and he likes stocks that pay dividends mostly (GM if memory serves). So he isn't super bullish...just time to start investing . In technology, he owns IBM, EDS and Texas Instruments.
Sorry..about all I can remember. Maybe others can embellish.
Slick
-- posted by Slick
» Kirk - Annual Pundit Review from BW?
Businessweek Predictions Missing this year? The predictions for the NASDAQ are pretty funny... Even Doug Cliggot, considered a bear now by many, was overly optimistic and yet he had the second lowest prediction for the Nasdaq!Off by "only" 80% for the NASDAQ prediction? WOW! That has to be a record!
Kirk
Posted first http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk...
The yearly preview issue of Business Week is on the stands now, and of course it's bullish bullish bullish.
Close observers will notice one feature is missing this year... the annual roundup of "expert" predictions for how the markets will do in 2002.
I think I know why that feature is missing 
Here's a repost of last years predictions. They were stunningly, abysmally, embarrassingly wrong:
======================================
Predictions for 12/31/01, from 12/23/00 Business Week
|
Amazing! Only George Jacobsen came close with what was a super bearish prediction. Now people still listen to what the pundits are saying and they are all saying 2002 will be a tough year for the most part… I wonder if they will be just as wrong and we'll get a real crushing of the market as our Roger Babson predicts or could we get the strong recovery and surprise everyone this year?
-- posted by Kirk
» soonertimer - Or why one should not believe everything he/she reads...
In response to message posted by Kirk:For the 2002 predictions from Business Week check out: http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/con...
A few comments: the most interesting predictions involve the Nasdaq Comp, which is projected to end the year at 2,236. After two terrible years, that does not seem to be very bullish to me. Frankly, I was expecting that these "strategists" would have predicted a rally to at least 2,500.
FWIW, I closely examine the annual Business Week Forecast Survey - mainly as a contrary indicator. It is rather amazing how often the major market averages finish the year more than 2 Standard Deviations +/- away from the predicted means. IOW, this is just another example of how conventional "wisdom" tends to be so off base.
Also, on the Guru "watch" front: Smart Money has made some major changes at http://www.smartmoney.com/pundits
Batman and Ralph A. have been "kicked to the curb" and Abby has been seriously "downsized" in her "batting average". Again, I view this as somewhat bullish. This "dissing" of some of the stars of the late '90's is a necessary sentiment change before the next bull can commence in earnest.
-- posted by soonertimer
» Slick - More ON Robert Drach
http://www.nbr.com/ ( click finacial tools at left)Interesting, that NBR before the interview , posts all of Drach's portfolio , with performance and trade data from inception.( hmm...I wonder if this policy was started after Bobbrinker was on )
Of his current positions, most are underwater ! And , of further note, his average holding time ( for a stock ) is 133 days (!) and is apparently looking for that elusive 10% rise. This guy is really light on his feet .
Slick
-- posted by Slick
» David_Korn - Guru Alert!
An interesting article from Aaron Task on thestreet.com tonight in which he reports on some new market timing "gurus."-- posted by David_Korn
» Kirk - SSB's Levkovich says: "Go long"
pretty bullish at 20% earnings growth!Message #2024 from Return to Sender at Feb 19, 2002 2:41 PM
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk...
SSB's Levkovich says: "Go long"
By Julie Rannazzisi, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 2:08 PM ET Feb. 19, 2002
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/sto...
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Salomon Smith Barney's chief U.S. equity institutional strategist Tobias Levkovich turned bullish Tuesday, ending a three-month period of neutrality.
In a bold note entitled: "The stars are beginning to line up! Go long!" he asserted that business trends are about to improve and will support macroeconomic forecasts for recovery.
Levkovich stressed that earnings predictability, -- not valuation - is critical for stocks to sustain a rise. He noted that analysts' earnings revisions have turned more positive.
A lack of confirmation from companies that macroeconomic fundamentals have turned around has restrained equity market gains, Levkovich said. But he added that he expects improvements to emerge in March, April and May.
While market watchers fret that high valuations will stall gains at this juncture of the cycle, Levkovich said current historically low interest rates support present share prices, and told listeners to a conference call Tuesday that stocks are probably a touch below "fairly valued".
He expects earnings growth of 20 percent in the second half of the year.
Accounting worries misplaced
The Salomon strategist offered reassuring words for those worried about the aggressive accounting tactics employed during the heydays of the late 1990s.
Levkovich believes accounting issues are not as large as investors make them out to be. He said market participants are being "distracted" by repercussions from Enron's fallout and are ignoring the fact that production trends are turning the corner.
He expects the Enron scandal-related fears to taper off soon.
As production levels begin to climb, manufacturing and employment gains will follow and work to keep consumers resilient while inciting earnings and stock price rebounds.
Levkovich said a market retest of the September 2001 low isn't needed since that nadir was triggered by the aberrational nature of the terrorist attacks.
Levkovich maintains a year-end S&P 500 ($SPX: news, chart, profile) target of 1,300 to 1,350, which corresponds to a 19 to 24 percent gain from current levels.
The turnaround signs
Levkovich doesn't buy the "double-dip" theory some economists are forecasting, which predicts a second recessionary slide just when it appears a recovery is taking hold.
He gave investors eight signs pointing to a turnaround at the micro level that he claims will become evident in the next couple of months.
The signs include
General Electric's first positive North American short cycle order growth numbers in 13 months FedEx's assertion it's experiencing robust ground services business
A preliminary rise in North American heavy-duty truck orders Apparent firming in radio, online media and television advertising.
Applied Materials' showing of a slight increase in sequential orders with semiconductors;
Easy year-over-year comparisons that will become evident in sectors such as industrials, airline and lodging;
Strong retail sales and, A January survey from the National Federation of Independent Business revealing an increase in hiring and production expectations by small businesses.
Sector shifts
Levkovich made a number of sector shifts to reflect his more aggressive market stance.
The strategist raised his weighting on the industrials sector to an "overweight" from a "market weight."
He also upped his outlook on information technology to "market weight" from "slight underweight" on the wings of turning trends in the broad chip and chip equipment industries. But the strategist remained cautious on telecom equipment, integrated circuit and Internet infrastructure stocks.
Finally, the defensive consumer staples group was lowered to a "slight underweight" from a "market weight" posture.
Levkovich also added Analog Devices (ADI: news, chart, profile), Deere & Co. (DE: news, chart, profile), Continental Airlines (CAL: news, chart, profile), Canadian National Railway (CNI: news, chart, profile) and American Express (AXP: news, chart, profile) to the Salomon Smith Barney "Recommended List," while removing Colgate-Palmolive (CL: news, chart, profile).
Among the mentioned stocks, ADI lost 3.2 percent, Colgate erased 0.6 percent and Continental fumbled 0.8 percent while AmEx climbed 1 percent, Canadian National jumped 1.5 percent and Deere edged up 0.4 percent.
Potential risks
Levkovich recognized that market risks could arise from the potential of an energy shock given current tensions in the Middle East. He added during the conference call that the backdrop of asbestos issues could also hang over stocks.
But the strategist clearly advised investors to buy now.
"We contend that if someone handed us the ball at the line of scrimmage, we could tell our receivers to go long," Levkovich concluded.
When released the numbers always come out after the close of the stock market. Usually they get posted on the AMAT thread before they make it here.
RtS
-- posted by Kirk
» David_Korn - Bernie Schaeffer
Bernie Schaeffer received #1 slot from Timer's Digest for "Long-term Timers" for the last three years. He also was ranked #1 in gold for 10 years. Is anyone other than me beginning to have serious doubts about the way Timer's Digest (and some of the other graders) evaluate market timers.Excerpt:
Cincinnati, February 1, 2002 – Bernie Schaeffer, Chairman and CEO of Schaeffer's Investment Research, has been rated #1 in the "Long-term Timers" category for the three years ended December 31, 2001, as measured by Timer Digest's Annual Report. According to these recently released ratings, Schaeffer also ranked as the #1 gold timer for the 10 years ended December 31, 2001 and as the #2 gold timer for the five years ended December 31, 2001
-- posted by David_Korn
» KLR - Re: Bernie Schaeffer
In response to message posted by David_Korn:David,
I think achieving "#1 Marketimer/Newsletter" from Timers' Digest, Hulbert's etc. is like a bottle of wine being named "Gold Medal Winner".
Practically every bottle of wine on the shelves at Safeway has won a Gold Medal, first prize in class, yadda, yadda, yadda. Never mind that the prize was only applicable to those entries submmitted on July 14th, at 2:04 PM, est. Step right up...everybody gets a prize!!
Do you recall when Brinker used to advertise that he was the Number One Marketimer for some obscure 12-1/2 day period of time for all newletters published on Tues. afternoon and not using margin??
ALL PURE BUNKUM AND HOKEM, I SAY!!
-- posted by KLR
» SPYDR22000 - Re: Bernie Schaeffer
In response to message posted by David_Korn:The ranking is actually secondary to the honor
of being included in a group with the likes of,
Schaeffer, Brinker, and Miss Cleo.
-- posted by SPYDR22000
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