Analysts, Gurus &amp; Pundits

Top 42. Nov 25, 1998 7:28 AM

» Holden - JenL Traps Bear

Bear Trap

-- posted by Holden

Top 43. Dec 9, 1998 9:12 AM

» KwL - Ralph Speaks

Ralph Inagain Outagain Finnegan is talking again, taken from an Ibexx post on the SI Intel thread.

Gotta love that Range he gives! Otherwise, good points are made. It does sound like he is advertising "Fund Managers" or "Small Caps" with his "Stock Selection" bit. Maybe '99 will be the year for VTSMX to outperdform VFINX?

--
Below is from Ralph A. as of today:

Long-Term

Our 1999 Stock Market Outlook-The Year Of The Stock Picker...

· Our 1999 yearly range for the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 7800/8450 on the downside and 9800/11,500 on the upside.

· The S&P 500 range is 1050/1090 on the downside and 1350/1525 on the upside.

· October 1998 was the bottom and represents a four year low.

· The year 1999 is the third year of the president's term in office and the third year is historically the best of the four years.

· Despite the fact that the DJIA, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite are now at new highs, 65 S&P groups (or 71%) out of a total of 91 sectors are at least 20% below their respective 1998 highs. The bears will view this as a big negative but we disagree. Of course a majority of groups have not caught up with the leading market averages yet simply because most groups and stocks suffered extreme damage (anywhere between 25% and 35% losses from their respective 1998 highs). Hence they will take time to build the necessary bases to support higher moves later on. It is this theme that we are emphasizing for 1999-stock selection. .....

-- posted by KwL

Top 44. Dec 9, 1998 9:21 PM

» Mark_J - ralphie

I think Ralph should just get it over with and announce that he forcasts a DOW range between zero and ten billion; then, be done with it.

-- posted by Mark_J

http://www.quote.com/news/recent/nbr/nbr...

Top 45. Dec 12, 1998 8:19 AM

» shep - Her Ladyship is now a BULL

Taken from the Justa and Lars thread at SI:

To: +Lars (2445 )
From: +Double D Saturday, Dec 12 1998 11:04AM ET
Reply # of 2455

Her Ladyship's Appearnace on last nights NBR..

"Market Monitor"-Elaine Garzarelli

KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week is Elaine Garzarelli, president of Garzarelli Capital Incorporated, with offices in Boca Raton, Florida; Chicago, Illinois; and New York City. And welcome back, Elaine.

ELAINE GARZARELLI, PRESIDENT, GARZARELLI CAPITAL INC.: Nice to be here, Paul.

KANGAS: The Dow Industrial Average last week dropped 317 points. This week, it was off 194 points. A lot of the technical underpinnings of the market are weakening and we're getting just a whole bunch of earnings warnings from major corporations. Are you losing a little faith in this market?

GARZARELLI: Not at all. Paul, I think that this is the beginning of a new bull market in the small stocks. We went through a complete bear market from April until October in the NASDAQ, down close to 40 percent. And a correction over a-month and a half in the S&P 500 and that bottomed August 31. So we're in the very first leg of a new bull market and I think that it's normal to have a correction like this. So far, from a daily close to the intraday low today, the Dow's only dropped 3 percent.

KANGAS: Where do your 14 indicators stand on a percentage basis?

GARZARELLI: They're at 71 percent when...

KANGAS: That's high! That's strong.

GARZARELLI: Yes, it's very high. When we bottomed August 31, they went as high as 76 percent which is one of the highest in history.

KANGAS: And before in mid-July when the Dow was at its first peak of the year, they went all the way down to 40.

GARZARELLI: Right.

KANGAS: And you put out a "short-term bear" signal.

GARZARELLI: I looked for a correction, right.

KANGAS: OK. So, this doesn't bother you and yet, everything

seems to be going wrong at once. How about the impeachment proceedings, is that going to be a negative?

GARZARELLI: Well, I think the market needs to correct a little bit anyway. It was just moving so fast that our valuation indicators were getting a little stretched about a week ago. So the market will find the news its needs to do what it has to do which is kind of settle down a little bit before it gets enough steam to go back up.

KANGAS: How do your institutional investors feel about the market?

GARZARELLI: Well, it's interesting. Sixty percent of them think we're in the continued bear market and this is just a bear market rally. So that's excellent news in that they still have a lot of cash to put into the market, probably in January.

KANGAS: How do you feel about the collapse in so many commodity prices, particularly oil? Do you think this might be signaling a global recession?

GARZARELLI: Yes. I think a slowdown for sure. Recessions in some areas of the world. I think, here,we're talking about a significant slowdown of maybe 1 1/2 to 2 percent real GDP which is great for interest rates.

KANGAS: All right. Now, you don't think the Fed's going to cut again, do you?

GARZARELLI: Yes, I do. I believe ...

KANGAS: Really!

GARZARELLI: Yes! Sure.

KANGAS: When?

GARZARELLI: I don't know if it will be December. But definitely, in the next six months they'll cut again, maybe two more times. Earnings are down in the third quarter. They were reported down for the first time -4.4 percent. And that should continue for the next three quarters.

KANGAS: All right. Let's talk stocks. Since last year, you recommended a lot of big ones.

KANGAS: Procter & Gamble, Rohm & Haas (NYSE:ROH), Johnson &

Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), McDonalds (NYSE:MCD), Banc One (NYSE:ONE), Chase Manhattan(NYSE:CMB) and Philip Morris (NYSE:MO). They're all way up. Are you taking any of that money off the table?

GARZARELLI: No. No, I'm just shifting into different industries, the kind of industries that do well...

KANGAS: OK.

GARZARELLI: ... after major bear market bottoms.

KANGAS: Baker Hughes (NYSE:BHI) was one of your recommendations and it's way down,although you did sell it in late June...

GARZARELLI: Right.

KANGAS: ... well above where it is now. And the other-the only other loser you had was Hilton(NYSE:HLT) at 33. It's now down around 21 or so. What are you going to do?

GARZARELLI: I love Hilton.

KANGAS: You do that?

GARZARELLI: I would buy it...

KANGAS: OK.

GARZARELLI: ...definitely buy it now.

KANGAS: Schering-Plough (NYSE:SGP) was one of your favorites when you were last with us in October, I should say May. And it was 42. Mow it's the high 50s. You've taken some money off the table there?

GARZARELLI: Yes. I would take some money off the table in the drug industry...

KANGAS: OK.

GARZARELLI: ...and put it into some of the others that have a lot more potential.

KANGAS: How about Conseco (NYSE:CNC)? That was at 50. Now it's in the mid-'30s.

GARZARELLI: No, I would stay with that.

KANGAS: OK.

GARZARELLI: That's an interesting one.

KANGAS: And Avon (NYSE:AVP). Avon at 41. It's down about 4 points.

GARZARELLI: We like that.

KANGAS: OK. Any new ones? We only have about a minute.

GARZARELLI: Yes. I love the brokerage firms. Merrill Lynch (NYSE:MER) and DLJ (NYSE:DLJ)are still down 40 to 50 percent. The banks have taken a very big hit, something like CitiGroup , Chase Manhattan Bank (NYSE:CMB). I think with interest rates coming down on the 10-year bond to 4 percent. Centex (NYSE:CXP) which is a home-building stock, looks excellent. And you know, I'd also be in a lot of the leisure time stocks like Brunswick (NYSE:BC).

KANGAS: OK.

GARZARELLI: Those are the industries, typically, that do very well in a new bull market.

KANGAS: And obviously, you like bonds here?

GARZARELLI: I love bonds.

KANGAS: OK.

GARZARELLI: I think you'll get probably the same return in bonds as you will in stocks over the next 12months.

KANGAS: You say 4 percent on the 10-year?

GARZARELLI: Right. Right.

KANGAS: OK. All right. A very bullish Elaine Garzarelli. It's good to have you with us again.

GARZARELLI: It's nice to be here. Thanks.

KANGAS: Thanks very much. Elaine Garzarelli, president of Garzarelli Capital Incorporated.

-- posted by shep

Top 46. Dec 17, 1998 9:03 PM

» JenL_3 - The Bulls are Running

This from CBS Marketwatch.com:

How about these predictions:

DOW 18,500 by 2006 (Ralph Acampora)

DOW 21,200 by 2010 (Sheldon Jacobs)

Read about these and more in Pundit's Demagogic Predictions

J.L.

-- posted by JenL_3

Top 47. Jan 4, 1999 7:05 PM

» Kirk - Ralph Acampora's Picks

To: +Ibexx (70467 ) From: +Ibexx

SI Intel Thread,

Below are Ralph Acampora's stock picks for 1999 (issued 1/4/99):
____________________________
My Top picks for the year:

* Compaq Computers (CPQ-42, is rated 'STRONG BUY'by Prudential Securities Research)
* Intel Corp (INTC-118 9/16, is rated ACCUMALATE by Prudential Securities Research)
* Microsoft Corp. (MSFT-138 11/16, is not rated by Prudential Securities Research)
* Pfizer Inc.(PFE-125, is rated 'HOLD' by Prudential Securities Research)
* Liposome Company Inc. (LIPO-15 7/16, is not rated by Prudential Securities Research)
* Texas Instruments (TXN-85 5/8, is rated 'ACCULATE' by Prudential Securities Research)
Platinum Software Corp.(PSQL-12 13/16, is not rated by Prudential Securities Research)
* Taco Cabana Inc. (TACO-15 7/16, is not rated by Prudential Securities Research)

READ AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Ibexx

PS: Please note the mispellings were attributed to Ralph or Prudential, not me, as I only performed "cut and paste". (To many drinks on New Years Eve?)

-- posted by Kirk

Top 48. Jan 5, 1999 12:51 PM

» KirkL - Alger Predicts DJIA $10,000 SOON!

On CNBC today, David Alger of Alger Capital Management predicts DOW 10,000 in this quarter, then maybe a summer correction and maybe higher by the end of the year. Cites lower interest rates followed by earnings growth in 2000 (being factored into the market in the second half of 1999).

His Growth Fund did 45.2% in 1998 so he has a clue…8)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/afgpx.html

-- posted by KirkL

Top 49. Jan 5, 1999 1:24 PM

» Kirk - Is Biggs a Clown?

Then we have Barton Biggs, Chief Strategist at Morgan Stanley / Dean Witter saying on CNBC today that NOW is the time to short the big blue chip US growth companies! This guy has been a bear for as long as I can remember. Does MS/DW actually pay this guy? Maybe he has a tiny trading account and does something really well like wash the floors and get on TV?

Jen, what bear is Mr Biggs? I think we need a dancing photo of him below this post!

-- posted by Kirk

Top 50. Jan 5, 1999 6:09 PM

» cain - nervous investing

i am a BB fan and made good gains last year, but i pulled 50% of my 401k equities out at S&P levels of 1170. I know better than to buy at these highs but don't want to miss more groweth. Any suggestions. thanks

-- posted by cain