Analysts, Gurus & Pundits


  1. Kirk
  2. Kirk
  3. Kirk
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  5. Kirk
  6. WillG
  7. Kirk
  8. Santa
  9. Kirk
  10. JenL_3

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Top 31.   Sep 14, 1998 12:18 PM

» Kirk - Ralph Speaks, Quietly.... To: +Justa Werkenstiff (1010 )

Ralph Speaks, Quietly....

To: +Justa Werkenstiff (1010 )
From: +Wu Ying
Monday, Sep 14 1998 2:01PM ET
Reply # of 1018

Acampora Interview 9/13/98

Dow Jones Newswires -- September 14, 1998
POINT OF VIEW: Ralph Acampora, The Reluctant Guru

By MARK YOST
Dow Jones Newswires

RICHMOND, Va. -- "I never wanted to be a guru," says Prudential Securities Inc.'s director of
technical research, Ralph Acampora. "But somehow the media had crowned me the king of the bull
market and Goldman Sachs & Co. strategist) Abby Joseph Cohen the queen."

Society of Certified Financial Analysts, the market guru, er, technician swore that his punditry days
are over. But not before accepting responsibility for "at least 100 points" of a 300-point drop in the
Dow Jones Industrial Average following an Aug. 4 appearance on CNBC.

Now let's see if we have this straight, Ralph. You claim you never wanted to be a guru, but are
taking partial credit for a major market drop. Isn't that a little like Bill Clinton telling a grand jury he
didn't have "sexual relations" with Monica Lewinsky and then going on national television to seek
forgiveness for an "inappropriate" relationship with her?

Regardless, nonpundit Acampora said that he "made the hard call" by going on CNBC and publicly
trading in his bull horns for a bearskin. As evidence of his courage under fire he noted a letter from
famed investor A. Gary Shilling, commending him for his bravery to do what others wouldn't.

Indeed, in Acampora's eyes it was the media that blew his comments out of proportion and caused
the lion's share of the Aug. 4 market drop. "I called it a cyclical bear, not secular," Acampora said.
"But somehow that got lost in the translation."

Furthermore, he equated his role to that of a campus police officer closing down an out-of-control
fraternity party. And for it, he said, he was lambasted by an increasingly powerful business media.

"This media thing is getting bigger," Acampora said. "It started with Greenspan and his comment
about 'irrational exuberance.' The media and the Congress said, 'Shut that jerk up.' And the public
doesn't want to hear this because it impacts their retirement money."

It has been five weeks since Prudential's Acampora's last television appearance. For most of
Thursday night he stuck to his I'm-not-a-guru-anymore mantra. "We're probing for a bottom," he
said when pressed to interpret Thursday's 249-point drop in the Dow industrials. "We're in the
wait-and-see period."

What about his previous forecast of 7400 as the floor?

"I'm not going to answer that question," Acampora said. "I'm trying to
make a case that maybe 7400 was the low. That would be perfect. But honestly, I don't have a
number."

With the market trading wildly over the past few days - Friday the DJIA bounced back nearly 180
points to close at 7795 - he said it's looking more and more like the market has found its bottom and
is trying to settle "But I'm not impressed yet," Acampora said, slipping easily back into his
forecaster's shoes. "If we take out 7400, the best thing you can do is look for support levels at 7000
and 6400."

Regardless of what happens, Acampora said the market has accomplished a lot. "We're washing
out the excess," he said. "And if this is a secular trending bull market that's still alive, we're going to
10,000."

His one solid suggestion was for investors to look at sectors rather than indexes. But for the most
part, he's still swearing off major punditry. "I don't want to go on television," he said. "I'm not
going to go out and clarion call anything."

Well, almost anything.

"If the market goes below 7400, I think I have an obligation to go on TV and explain it," he said. But
don't think you'll only see Acampora's familiar face again if the market dips below 7400.

His last on-the-record comment before joining Richmond's financial analysts for a few cocktails
was: "I know what I want to see, I haven't seen it yet. When I know, I'll tell you."

Indeed, old habits die hard.

-By Mark Yost; 804-698-7385


Kirk Lindstrom

Editor: Personal Finance and Investing
Reading List

-- posted by Kirk



Top 32.   Sep 17, 1998 8:08 AM

» Kirk - Looks like Bob and Warren are not following the same model. BB

Looks like Bob and Warren are not following the same model. BB fully in at DOW 8650....

Thursday September 17, 4:36 am Eastern Time

Berkshire holds $9 bln cash - WSJ

NEW YORK, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., disclosed
his company is sitting on $9
billion in cash at the present time, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday.

The well-known value investor said ''it's always beneficial for us when the market goes down,'' the
report said.

The market's recent slide ''hasn't been dramatic,'' Buffett added, according to the report. ''If the
market declines significantly, you can be pretty sure that we won't
have $9 billion in cash when we meet next year,'' he said, according to the report.

Buffett said the company's cash position is the largest Berkshire has ever held on a dollar basis, the
Journal reported.


Kirk Lindstrom

Editor: Personal Finance and Investing
Reading List

-- posted by Kirk



Top 33.   Sep 22, 1998 6:45 PM

» Kirk - Another bull snorts and breaths fire! <b>I LIKE IT!</b> **

Another bull snorts and breaths fire! I LIKE IT!


** Another Bullish View **

These are hard to come by these days :

by Joe Battipaglia, Chairman of Investment
Policy 9/14/98

As far as I am concerned, the market spent the months of
July and August perilously going towards a bottom as it
expressed extreme pessimism on several obvious issues.
First, there was the fear of financial meltdown in Southeast
Asia. Secondly, there was the fear of a global economic collapse as weakness
spread to include other emerging markets. Then there was the concern of the
return of communism to Russia. Finally, there was the frightening specter of an
impeachment process in the United States of the most influential man in the
world.

These factors have lead to a dramatically oversold position for the market,
which I believe is not sustainable. In fact, I believe the market's bottom was
reached a weak ago and that we are poised for an explosive upside rally. The
reasons for this rally are as follows: First, we have record low interest rates that
will remain intact tact for at least the near term. Secondly, American
corporations will emerge from this turmoil as "world beaters". These company's
will gain market share against competition and will re-enter emerging markets
once again in a leadership role with the strength of a global currency, the US
dollar at their back.

Interestingly enough, I believe the emerging markets will once again be a draw
for capital as they work their way out of recession. However, this flow of
capital back into the emerging markets will not be such a drain to prevent our
equity markets from moving significantly higher as one of the few areas of
opportunity in the world. Therefore, I see global liquidity looking for investment
opportunities as a major factor in driving the US equity markets substantially
higher. Perhaps contrary to popular opinion, I do not believe that we will see a
global economic meltdown because the US Treasury and Federal Reserve, in
conjunction with the G-7 nations will not stand idly by and witness a contraction
in global liquidity.

In terms of a global economic collapse; as we have said from the beginning, the
United States will continue to carry the rest of the world as it has for most of
the post war era. As far as Russia is concerned, it is not a communist state but
merely a country in disarray attempting to transition itself from a third world to a
second world nation, which is a long term process. As for the potential for
impeachment proceedings in The United States, I think that last week's market
action is very telling. Upon delivery of the report, we saw the market drop
significantly over the course of two days. However, on Friday the market
rebounded and mounted a rally. once it had a chance to see that the report
contained nothing more than various depictions of sexual escapades. This being
the case, I expect the financial markets to continue to rally because the events
depicted in the report may or may not be impeachable offenses and may leave
some room for compromise. In this scenario, the President may very well finish
out his term with a stern reprimand. These potential outcomes would be well
received by the markets. All in all, I think we are going to have a massive rally
commencing shortly which will take us to nominal new highs before the year is
out. I am fearful that we will miss it if we do not act now. Therefore, I urge you
to take this message to our clients and build positions in both large and small
companies and be prepared to take advantage of the Transportation and
Financial Services industries since they are the most depressed.


Kirk Lindstrom

Editor: Personal Finance and Investing
Reading List

-- posted by Kirk



Top 34.   Sep 28, 1998 12:24 PM

» Kirk - Ralph Acampora's market outlook (as of today based upon Friday's

Ralph Acampora's market outlook (as of today based upon Friday's prices):

________

Prices as of close on 9/25/98
U.S. Stock Market Outlook

Near-Term

Last week the DJIA and the S&P 500 crossed above their near term
resistance levels of 8100 and 1030, respectively. We previously stated that
such a move would enable us to target further upside strength to the next
resistance areas on these two important blue chip averages. Hence, we
offered a potential near term advance to the 8400/8800 level on the Dow and
1090/1110 level on the S&P 500. A series of higher lows on these indices
over the past several weeks and the market's ability to absorb increased
negative news, underscores the strength of the recent lows (7400 on the
DJIA and 940 on the S&P 500). Take advantage of this upward momentum
and trade on the long side—but be very selective. Stock picking, not market
timing, is more important at this juncture.

Intermediate Term

The recent trading range between 7400 low and 8100 high on the DJIA is
expected to expand upward to the next resistance level in the 8400/8800
area. This new and wider trading band will see an increase in price swings. It
will also coincide with the October period, which itself, is historically a difficult
time in the market place. Hopefully, this anticipated rally is broad enough and
carries as high as we expect, then the subsequent October decline need not
break below the Dow's low of 7400.

Long-Term

The year 1998 is important to us because we are big believers in the
‘Four-Year Low Theory'. Historically every four years the stock market makes
a major bottom—a time in which one can buy stocks for the long term at
reasonable values. The last time we had such an opportunity was in
November, 1994 and the time before that was in October, 1990. The good
news about the market's July to September 1998 decline is that so far it has
created quite a bit of value, especially in the large capitalization area. It is
now time for those who have a long term perspective to start picking through
the rubble of the past several months and identify those groups and stocks
that hopefully will bottom out in the weeks ahead and will become new
investment vehicles. Start your search now.


Kirk Lindstrom

Editor: Personal Finance and Investing
Reading List

-- posted by Kirk



Top 35.   Oct 12, 1998 12:57 PM

» Kirk - Ralph Acampora reportedly changed his spots again To: +Tony

Ralph Acampora reportedly changed his spots again


To: +Tony Viola (66255 )
From: +Ibexx
Monday, Oct 12 1998 11:30AM ET
Reply # of 66284

Tony,

Ralph Acampora changed his spots again--he now recommends going long and sez a short term
bottom is in place.

From today's Technical Outlook (10/12):
___

Near-Term

Last Thursday we lowered our expectations for the Dow and S&P 500 averages (see
'intermediate-term stock market outlook' below). On that very day there were a confluence of
many negatives—deteriorating breadth as the transports, techies and many large cap names
were in free fall. However, at the end of Thursday's session it was very clear that the DJIA did not
break below the critical 7400 level. Friday's upside reaction was indeed very impressive.
Therefore, we believe that a good near term low is in place. We expect a vigorous upside follow
through. We believe the market's near term outlook is positive and should be played on the long
side.

Ibexx

-- posted by Kirk



Top 36.   Oct 12, 1998 4:06 PM

» WillG - Oh oh, now what is Jack going to do??? Will

Oh oh, now what is Jack going to do???

Will

-- posted by WillG



Top 37.   Oct 19, 1998 7:00 PM

» Kirk - Heard on NBR tonight. Elaine Garzarelli sees S&P 1400 in next

Heard on NBR tonight.

Elaine Garzarelli sees S&P 1400 in next 12-18 months which she says translates to DJIA 11,000!

Ralph Acompora thinks we have hit the bottom due to Fed action and thinks we'll have a wide trading range but isn't quite ready yet to predict DJIA 10,000 by 12 months.


Kirk Lindstrom

Editor: Personal Finance and Investing
Reading List

>

-- posted by Kirk



Top 38.   Oct 24, 1998 7:38 AM

» Santa - Here is a <b>clickable link</b> update from Marty Zweig original

Here is a clickable link update from Marty Zweig originally posted by Tom...

http://www.zweig.com/public/transcript.html

I figure it is nice to have the reference to Zwrig (he is a guru of sorts) here where there is less traffic than on the Free Brinker Discussion Site

Marty is quite bullish after a long, long explaination of why this is not 1929 all over again.... 8)

-- posted by Santa



Top 39.   Nov 24, 1998 8:03 AM

» Kirk - Ralph's latest prognostication:

Here is the latest from Ralph

http://www.cnnfn.com/markets/9811/23/aca...

"The fabled Prudential Securities technical analyst, who turned bearish on the market in August, is once again telling investors to buy stocks."

-- posted by Kirk



Top 40.   Nov 25, 1998 1:43 AM

» JenL_3 - The Bad News Bears Go Round & Round


<img src="http://www.animfactory.com/animgifs/crea..." align=center>



The Bad News Bears keep going round & round, and where they'll stop nobody knows!

J.L.

-- posted by JenL_3



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