Analysts, Gurus &amp; Pundits

Top 12. Apr 14, 1998 11:13 PM

» Lawhawk - That was my take on Eric too. Its good for a novice, but when y

That was my take on Eric too. Its good for a novice, but when you're in the funds for a stretch, you're likely to get comfortable with a particular style. I got into Contrafund last year based on its good returns historically plus it came at a time when Fido closed Magellan to new investors. I figured it a matter of time that Contra was next so that I wanted to be sure to get in before they closed. I wasn't entirely surprised then when they closed it to new investors along with G&I (another solid performer historically). If you do your homework I guess you can do as well without the gurus as with them.

A friend had suggested to check out Wade and I thought his strategies were interesting, but nothing more than a way to make him some money, oh.. and the brokers too. They still send me stuff, hoping to go to his $3k seminars. Thanks, but no thanks. I'll stick to a long term strategy and keep the profits in my pocket, not the brokers.

Michael Siegel

Managing Editor - Politics

Mid-East Politics Editor

-- posted by Lawhawk

Top 13. Apr 16, 1998 8:34 AM

» Kirk - To: +don lane (4608 ) From: +PETE from STAMFORD, CT

To: +don lane (4608 )
From: +PETE from STAMFORD, CT
Thursday, Apr 16 1998 10:46AM ET
Reply # of 4625

donL and ALL: re:

Last night (4/15/98), Bob Brinker's BJ Group partner, Sheldon Jacobs (Mr. No-Load), addressed a
standing room overflow crowd of about 200 people at a dinner meeting of the Connecticut Chapter
or the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) last night in Greenwich, CT. You may
remember that Sheldon's model portfolio is updated semi annually in the New York Times - it
usually is shown beating the published competing portfolios. He also publishes the popular highly
ranked monthly mutual fund newsletter, The No-Load Fund Investor. Some of my recollections of
the points Sheldon made in his one hour presentation were as follows:

· Asserts that "market timing" has unfairly gotten a bad name. While he isn't wholeheartedly in
favor of such timing, he has a partner (Bob Brinker) who has successfully done it. Instead, Jacobs
remains fully invested and lowers the beta's in his model portfolios during periods he is nervous
about market valuations.

· Believes in investing in mutual funds. Sheldon hasn't owned an individual stock for many years.
He showed a striking bar graph where increasingly higher returns were retained the longer one
holds an investment.

· Believes market performance will regress to the mean, but sometimes "the mean" moves. He
related the story about a student in Benjamin Graham's college class in the early 1950's who ignored
Graham's similar then advice when the market was at an all time high. Looking at the history of the
S&P Index, it's striking to see the upside breakout after the December 31, 1953 end of the "excess
profits tax". The market took off from that point and didn't level off until the 1968-1982 period. The
student's name was Warren Buffet.

· Believes that further increases in the current market environment will have to come from earnings
since P/E's are at record highs and probably can't go much higher. Jacobs noted that just a 7-1/2%
return per year out to year 2010 would lift the DOW to 20,000 from current levels.

· Believes it's best to buy on dips during 1998 and foresees volatility for the rest of the year. He
advises "don't bet the ranch" on any single investment.

· Expects that future bear markets will be sharp, however he believes they will be more brief than in
the past given improvements in communications technology.

· Believes it's more important than ever to place tax inefficient investments in sheltered accounts
(IRA's, Keoghs, etc.) and have taxable money invested in tax efficient low turnover investments,
given last year's changes in capital gains tax rates.

· Believes the drivers of this long-term bull market have been the opening of free markets from the
from the failure of communism, the spread of free trade, the squashing of high interest rates and
inflation by the Volker-Greenspan FED administrations, and the technology-communication
revolution.

· Believes in the investment pyramid system of portfolio construction where you invest in a core of
conservative growth and income funds, a lesser amount of growth funds, an even lesser amount of
aggressive growth funds, and a small amount of speculative investments (if you're so inclined).

· Believes in the top-down single portfolio approach to asset allocation when constructing an
investment portfolio. First total all financial assets and decided % Bonds % Stocks. Second, decide
% U.S. % International. Third, decide % allocation to detailed types of funds to achieve diversity in
each of U.S. and International market areas. Last, decide funds placed in tax sheltered accounts and
those placed in taxable accounts.

· Recommends avoiding leverage. He cited last year's bankruptcy of Victor Neiderhoffer's fund
(went from $120 mil to zero in one day during last fall's correction) due to margin calls he couldn't
cover.
· Mentioned a sample of funds he currently recommends which include:

- Marsico Focus Fund
- PBHG Large Cap 20 Fund
- Hotchkis & Wiley Small Cap Fund

· For conservative investors, he recommended:

- Baron Growth & Income Fund (Per Jacobs, Ron Baron is an excellent stock picker)
- Robertson Stephens Growth & Income Fund
- Realty Funds (believes their 1998 performance will make a comeback later this year)

· For young new investors, he was especially keen on the new TIAA-CRET Family of funds with
their extremely low expense ratios, pure no-load funds, and very low initial minimum investments
($250 to start, or $25/month for automatic monthly investment plans). Managers of pension funds
since 1918, their philosophy is to invest in indexes and to only buy individual stocks they feel will
beat the indexes.

Hope you all find this material as interesting as I did. I know much of it may sound familiar from
what we've already heard on the Moneytalk programs :-)

-- posted by Kirk

Top 14. Apr 16, 1998 9:11 AM

» SandyJ - Sure am glad it's OK to discuss Sheldon Jacob's model portfolio

Sure am glad it's OK to discuss Sheldon Jacob's model portfolio and recommendations. Don't dare do that with BB's.

Sandy J

-- posted by SandyJ

Top 15. Apr 16, 1998 1:13 PM

» JerryS_2 - I am now a subscriber..and I will detail bobs allocation models

I am now a subscriber..and I will detail bobs allocation models and recommendations from his newsletter on this site beginning next month.

-- posted by JerryS_2

Top 16. Apr 16, 1998 1:44 PM

» SandyJ - Jerry - You WANT to get sued? Sure are a lot of goofballs runni

Jerry - You WANT to get sued? Sure are a lot of goofballs running around loose out here!

Sandy J

-- posted by SandyJ

Top 17. Apr 16, 1998 2:20 PM

» TomC_6 - Tom Carroll Nothing to add. Thanks anyway. I wouldn't want to

Tom Carroll

Nothing to add. Thanks anyway. I wouldn't want to get reported to the webmistress. If you're old enough, you'll get the rub if I call this recent interchange: "Joe McCarthy of the Internet."

-- posted by TomC_6

Top 18. Apr 16, 1998 2:27 PM

» Whirlwind - I ran guns with Joe McCarthy back in my days in the IRA. Does h

I ran guns with Joe McCarthy back in my days in the IRA. Does he post?

-- posted by Whirlwind

Top 19. Apr 18, 1998 11:21 AM

» Kirk - To: +EDC (4636 ) From: +Kirk Saturday, Apr 18 1998 2

To: +EDC (4636 )
From: +Kirk Saturday, Apr 18 1998 2:15PM ET Reply # of 4642

Does anyone feel this market still has alot of upside?

Maybe this will help you determine my answer 8)

(someone sent me this via email)

> Earth's Population

>

> If we could shrink the Earth's population to a village of precisely 100

> people, with all existing human ratios remaining the same, it would look

> like this:

>

> There would be 57 Asians, 21 Europeans, 14 from the Americas (North and
> South), and 8 Africans.

> 51 would be female; 49 would be male.

> 70 would be non-white; 30 white.

> 70 would be non-Christian; 30 Christian.

> 50% of the entire world's wealth would be in the hands of only six
> people and all six would be citizens of the United States.

> 80 would live in substandard housing.

> 70 would be unable to read.

> 50 would suffer from malnutrition.

> 1 would be near death; 1 would be near birth.

> Only 1 would have a college education.

> No one would own a computer.

I think Bill Gates wants to get atleast 50 of those people using computers with his OS and Office Suite.....HP will sell em a camera and a printer (and a PC), Intel will ask them to upgrade to a faster box once they get hooked, Cisco will show em how to connect their box to their neighbor's so they don't have to use the telephone, IBM will service them and someone will invent a keyboard that is easy to clean when they spill their Cokes (KO) on it.

Upside? Who best to sell efficiently to the billions of people on the planet than the top 1000 companies in the USA? (thus I vote for the Schwab1000 Index Fund for simplicity and easy telephone and web trading). Will we see continued returns above 20%? I highly doubt it, but stranger things have happened. Anyway, 7 to 12% annualized returns for the near future sure beats inflation and CD interest rates.

Until we have a war or major inflation, I don't really see this changing.

regards

Kirk out

Kirk Lindstrom

Editor: Personal Finance and Investing

-- posted by Kirk

Top 20. Apr 18, 1998 1:04 PM

» Karin - Kirk, that was a great post. I'll have to pass this around. Fo

Kirk, that was a great post.
I'll have to pass this around.
Found a great Web-Site:
http://www.dbc.com/

-- posted by Karin