WSW: Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street Summary & Discussion $treet

» Kirk - Re: 9/24/04 Ed Hyman - more

I added a forum here to track Ed Hyman. He really has been good so we should track his predictions for reference.

Ed Hyman - ISI - International Stragegy & Investment Chairman

.
Ed Hyman was on Louis Rukeyser’s show last Friday (9/24/04). Ed said he predicts

• 2% growth with $55 oil,
  
• 3% growth with $45 oil and
  
• 4% growth with $35 oil
  

“X factor on Oil” is the emerging economies growing at 13% rate that are about $7T in total which is almost as big as the US economy. He listed these as China, Brazil, Russia and the countries that surround them. He says these are holding the price of oil up and he assumes that the price will be $45 going forward.

On rates, he expects rates to go lower. With “only 3% growth, there will be very low inflation” of 1 to 2%.

Ed expects people to start to worry about deflation again in the next 12 months.

BTW, Ed thinks “housing will be the next NASDAQ” and it is “early in a bull market that will become a bubble.” This seems to agree with your Leading Housing Index which is still quite strong.

Says economy feels weak since we are “barely out of a recession.” We are in an area much like 1993 and 1994.

Thinks the market has “the best chance of a strong rally” between now and the end of the year then 2005 will be flat or at least very boring. He is basing some of this on the presidential election year cycle. He says the first year of the cycle, 2005, is usually the worst.

Related Links:

 
              Kirk   S&P500  NASDAQ 
12/31/2002    +50%    +30%    +41%
12/31/2000    +20%    -11%    -24%
12/31/1998   +130%     -2%    -14%

-- posted by Kirk

» allancoleman - Re: Re: 9/24/04 Ed Hyman - more

i actually got to hear Ed on Louis' show last friday nite and the panel agreed with you that Ed Hyman was one of the most respected people on wall street . the panei was noticeably surprised and impressed by some of his predictions . especially his one on real estate .

-- posted by allancoleman

» SCoe46 - Re: Re: 9/24/04 Ed Hyman - more

He said Real Estate will probably be "the nexNasdaqaq Type Bubble" but it is now only at 1993/1994 levels. (I think this is possible given it is the only really true hard asset and we will have inflation with the huge deficits).
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kirk, Quite a radical view by Ed according to all the talking heads I have seen in the media lately who are predicting the current Real Estate bubble is getting ready to bust anyday! I figure by Ed's (1993/94 NASDAQ) comparison we have approximately 6-7 years before the party ends for housing. I guess 2009 would be a good time to sell your house? Are we looking at another doubling in home prices before the bust? Hard to believe and I would be quite happy with keeping pace with inflation from here on out to 2009..........

-- posted by SCoe46

» allancoleman - Re: Re: Re: 9/24/04 Ed Hyman - more

i agree with your view on Ed Hyman's opinion on real estate SCoe46 . i'm not saying that Ed's prediction isn't possible . if the market does suffer next year ( 2005 ) or alittle beyond ( 2006 ) , people will take a second look at real estate for investing as a place to put their dollars . no matter where we might be in that cycle .

i was fortunite enough to be able to watch that particular show and the panel was thunder struck when he said that about the housing bubble . especially when he mentioned it in the context of the nasdaq bubble several years ago . they were all over him about that comparison . did it mean the housing bubble was going to bust now or what ? ?

a extention of this real estate bubble plays into my own personally owned real estate liquidation plans so i would welcome Ed's prediction if it came true . it'll be interesting to watch how this thing ( real estate & stocks ) plays out .

-- posted by allancoleman

» Normxxx - Re: Re: Re: Re: 9/24/04 Ed Hyman - more

Surprisingly, except for a few spots such as the Boston-New York-Washington corridor, California, Hawaii, and (until recently) Florida, housing prices are surprisingly tame, so far. So we might see a crash in one or more of the 'hot' spots which will leave the rest of the U.S. market pretty much unscathed.

There will be major problems only if interest rates go up substantially. But, I am now betting, despite the pundits, that that won't happen. Instead, I expect long rates to fluctuate within a 1% - 2% range. Of course, then you can forget about the next 'boom.'

-- posted by Normxxx

» allancoleman - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: 9/24/04 Ed Hyman - more

i think there are real estate opportunities everywhere . it's true that you aren't going to find the same prices i did in the same locations years ago . but on all of my real estate development trips in alaska & hawaii i see property at what i consider excellent prices . course you have to go abit further out but those opportunities are still there . and if i were younger and had more time to wait and develop this stuff , i'd be buying more right now . but i've got my hands full trying to sell what i've got and really don't want the responsibility any more . it's all i can do to keep myself from buying some of this property especially with the cash i have on hand .

i think the same opportunities exist in the stock market . not for long term buy & hold in the present market , but for individual stock trading like kirk and others do i think there will always be opportunities . if i were back into stocks now i'd be a day trader . why not ? ?
not going to do it but i can see the opportunities . the volatility is certainly there .

-- posted by allancoleman

» Normxxx - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: 9/24/04 Ed Hyman - more

if i were back into stocks now i'd be a day trader . why not ? ?

The volatility surely is there, but every study of ST stock market movements shows that it is indistinguishable from random. Day trading is a sucker's game unless you use some truly stringent money management techniques, which are not fun.

-- posted by Normxxx

» allancoleman - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: 9/24/04 Ed Hyman - more

you are absolutely correct Normxxx . i was just joking . i've got a full time job right now just dealing with my real estate liquidation for the next five to ten years depending of my sales . by that time i won't really care much about the stock market hopefully with my critical mass .

watching all these markets ( real estate , stocks , gold , oil , etc ) sure is exciting and educational . as you said , we live in exciting times .

-- posted by allancoleman

» Normxxx - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: 9/24/04 Ed Hyman - more

I know you were. But it really is not a thing to joke about on a public board. There are too many newbies wandering by.

If ever you feel tempted, you can buy an "automatic" trading computer (for a few grand) and set it up to do 'paper' day trades to your heart's consent. After a few months, I think you will get really bored. The better programs are not likely to lose much in such a short period-- might even gain a little-- but, unless you have an extraordinary run, one way or the other, it's like watching paint dry. Gain a little one day; lose it the next.

In fact, I believe, in the end, it's the commissions and fees-- the house take-- which do in the traders.

-- posted by Normxxx

» allancoleman - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: 9/24/04 Ed Hyman - more

you're right about the ' house take ' . one of my best friends who is a active trader is very good friends with schwab . last year ( 2003 - a good year for the market ) he matched my performance on almost 1/3 the amount of my critical mass . in other words i have almost three times the amount of total assets he has . so he made about what i made last year on 1/3 the money invested .

this year is a total different story . he's in the hole almost half the amount i'm ahead . so he has to earn half the amount this year i've already made year to date to break even . and make again as much to catch me year to date . that'll be 100% gain for him . ? ? instead of counting year ( 2003 ) to year ( 2004 ) performance in our personal match race , he now wants to figure two years ( 2003 & 2004 ) performance together . no matter to me .

he has my copy of Sy's book ( again ). this is the second time he's had the book in his hands and i told him he was more than welcome to it . i'm going to have to buy several copies of Sy's book in order to keep my copy in my hands long enough to figure out what to do myself . . i've got several friends that keep borrowing it .

keep up the good work . i send them , and others , copies of your posts to help them .

-- posted by allancoleman