WSW: Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street Summary & Discussion $treet

» JeffChristy - Re: Re: 4-23-04

It was Western Gas Resources (WGR). The two other companies that were taken over are Tom Brown and Westport.

-- posted by JeffChristy

» lly01 - Re: Re: Re: 4-23-04

Jeff....thanks so much!

-- posted by lly01

» Kirk - Dan Rice Stock Picks

lly01: I am hoping someone can answer my question about the stocks that guest Dan Rice likes. He mentioned that 2 companies had recently been acquired/bought out/taken over. One of his "picks" was a company who Rice said was the 3rd one that he thought would be bought out. Which company was it?

JeffChristy: It was Western Gas Resources (WGR). The two other companies that were taken over are Tom Brown and Westport.

He was a good guest. I enjoyed hearing what he had to say.

Special Guest: Dan Rice,
Portfolio Manager, State Street Research Global Resources Fund

His Stock Picks:

1. Consol Energy (CNX)
2. Peabody Energy (BTU)
3. Massey Energy (MEE)
4. Arch Coal (ACI)
5. Newfield Exploration (NFX)
6. Western Gas (WGR)

Here is a chart of these picks vs. the Energy Spyder:
<img src=http://cbs.marketwatch.com/charts/int-ad... width=452 height=366>

They have done VERY well.

These fund managers are not dummies. My big fear is they tout stocks they are heavly invested in due to recent great performance and they want to take profits. Is there anything preventing them from comming out and talking about their largest holdings in a favorable light then "taking profits" into any added interest?

Being they are not dummies, I very much doubt they would tell us what stocks they were currently accumulating.

And this chart will show how they do going forward (for our records). I bet his smaller cap picks will get quite a pop today after his recommendation.

<img src=http://cbs.marketwatch.com/charts/int-ad... width=452 height=366>

I wonder if his fund is required to hold these small caps for any period of time after recommending them on national tv? I'd sure love to recommend CACS and GEOG to a national audience...

<img src=http://cbs.marketwatch.com/charts/int-ad... width=452 height=366>

PERIOD Total Returns   Kirk’s   W5000  S&P 500 Nasdaq
                         NL     VTSMX   VFINX   ^IXIC
1 Year to 3/31/04      +70%    +40%    +35%    +49%
3 Year to 3/31/04      +37%     +8%     +2%     +8%
5 Year to 3/31/04     +102%     +2%     -6%    -19%

 

Total Return:
                           Kirk   W5000 S&P500 NASDAQ 
5 Yrs 3/31/99 - 3/31/04   +102%   +1.6%  -6.2% -19.0%
Annualized Annual Return +15.1%   +0.3%  -1.3%  -4.1%
 
Click for a free issue of my newsletter 
Suitable for the aggressive growth part of your
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-- posted by Kirk

» SteveT - Re: Dan Rice Stock Picks

One day returns.

SPY –.14%
XLE +.56%

CNX +3%
BTU +2.6%
MEE +2.7%
ACI +.54%
NFX +1.45%
WGR +.91%

-- posted by SteveT

» JeffChristy - Re: Dan Rice Stock Picks

Kirk

"These fund managers are not dummies. My big fear is they tout stocks they are heavily invested in due to recent great performance and they want to take profits. Is there anything preventing them from coming out and talking about their largest holdings in a favorable light then "taking profits" into any added interest?
Being they are not dummies, I very much doubt they would tell us what stocks they were currently accumulating."

Ok now that we looked at the stocks that were recommended last Friday, I will take a stab at what will be discussed this coming Friday. We know that the guest will be David L. King. manager of the PUTNAM NEW VALUE FUND

:http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=PANVX

Here are his top ten holdings which make up about 1/3 of his portfolio. I am willing to bet he talks about stocks on this list.
 
TYCO INTL TYC
EXXON MOBIL XOM
FANNIE MAE FNM
CITIGROUP C
BERKSHIRE CL BBRKb
US BANCORP USB
HEWLETT-PACKARD HPQ
WELLS FARGO & CO WFC
UNION PACIFIC CP UNP
ALTRIA GROUP MO

-- posted by JeffChristy

» SteveT - 4-30-04

Tom Gallagher looks at the macro view and said we did have a lot to digest this week. Perhaps the most important was the fear of the FED tightening. He thinks the soonest tightening will begin is August. When is not all that important but how far they go is. Tom predicts both the stock and bond market will be unsettled until we know just how far rates will increase. Gallagher thinks the FED will be looking more closely at the jobs picture than prices and is encouraged to see some commodity prices drop on the news that China will be bumping up rates.

Mary Farrell also believes the first the increase will not be until August but the risk is it could be sooner. I had a technical glitch so I missed some of Mary’s comments but strong earnings encourage her, but she worries about just how far rates will rise and the Iraq situation. Farrell thinks the April jobs report will confirm an improving employment market. She is being a little defensive in a market that essentially flat on the year. A couple stocks she likes are Colgate-Palmolive (CL) and Clear Channel Communication (CCU). See Lou’s web site for her other picks. http://www.rukeyser.com/tvshow/guestsnpa...

Bob Stovall had thought the FED would not tightening until after the elections in November. Now he is changing his mind. He believes they may nudge rates up a little early on and then hold until after the election or early next year. This is due to the gap between the Fed funds rate and the GDP. Bob is worried inflation could be with us for sometime due to energy costs. In this type environment Stovall likes the sectors of consumer non-durable, health, energy, and as an inflation hedge Gold. Stocks include Clorox (CLX), Devon Energy (DVN), and Outback Steakhouse (OSI).

Sue then introduced David King, Portfolio Manager, Putnam New Value Fund. David starts by looks for big established companies will revenues in excess of $1Billion during the past twelve months. He pays little attention to Market Cap, saying the lower the better. He uses a quantitative research model to screen stock ideas and to optimize his portfolio in hopes of selecting stocks that will have a big impact on his portfolio. Sue asked for an example of how that works. King uses historic data and looks for upside to fair value using his firms research analysts. From there ideas are ranked and finally they diversify across industries to reduce risk. It is a bottom up process spending little time looking at the broad economy.

Tom asked how King copes with accounting controversies since some of his top holdings have been at the center of that issue. David recommends looking at cash, if they report earnings but don’t have any cash that is a red flag. Companies that are turning around have a tendency to show improving cash and little in the way of earnings. Check the balance sheet and cash flow and let the earnings fall where it may is his motto. Tom then wanted to know why large Pharmaceuticals were not large positions in his portfolio. He does own some selected stocks but is not impressed with the overall outlook for some of the bigger names. He does like the drug distributors and mentioned he does own Abbott Labs (ABT) and King Pharmaceuticals (KG). Mary asked if dividends factor into his stock selection. Indirectly, he owns many companies that have excess cash and with the change in tax laws are starting to increase dividends. Going forward dividend growth could be a key factor to stock performance. Bob asked if David employed a seasonality strategy. Seasonality is not something he focuses on but if the price drops due to seasonality David will take advantage of it and buy.

Sue asked why he does not shy away from controversy stocks like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. At the moment he thinks Fannie Mae is a value stock with a good history and the headline risk is not as important as where the numbers will be long term. Xerox is another turn around story that could do well given a new product line. Sue then asked if he dabbled in Biotech stocks. Any industry could qualify as a value industry if the criteria are right but right now Biotech and Internet Stocks do not fit the bill.

Next weeks special guest will be Margaret Patel, Portfolio Manager, Pioneer High Yield Fund. The panel will be Ed Brown, Michael Holland, and Liz Ann Sonders.

Louis Rukeyser, Louis Rukeyser, Louis Rukeyser, Louis Rukeyser, Louis Rukeyser, Louis Rukeyser

-- posted by SteveT

» Kirk - Lou Has Cancer - Placed on Medical Leave

They said a "complete recovery is in the cards" but they didn't say if it was a pair of duces or drawing to an inside straight flush.

Get well Lou!

.

-- posted by Kirk

» Normxxx - Re: Lou Has Cancer - Placed on Medical Leave

Osteosarcoma? Not a happy prognosis.

-- posted by Normxxx

» Kirk - Re: Re: Lou Has Cancer - Placed on Medical Leave

They don't say what type of cancer it is. You can get back pain from a pain in your wrist if you adjust how you sit to accomodate the pain.

http://www.usatoday.com/life/people/2004...

CNBC's Louis Rukeyser says he has cancer

NEW YORK (AP) — CNBC financial commentator Louis Rukeyser, who's been on medical leave since last fall, has cancer but has promised to return to his weekly business show.

Rukeyser, 71, said he underwent back surgery last fall to relieve persistent pain, but when the pain didn't go away, he went back for a checkup and a low-grade malignancy was discovered.

Rukeyser says doctors advised him not to go back to work for several months.

"I thank all of you for your kind thoughts, and as Gen. Douglas MacArthur famously declared as he left the Philippine Islands during World War II, 'I shall return,'" Rukeyser said.

His weekly business report, "Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street," airs Friday nights on the cable channel. CNBC anchors have been filling in for him since his last appearance Oct. 31.

Rukeyser's show, a longtime staple on PBS before he jumped to CNBC, is also shown on more than 180 public television stations.

-- posted by Kirk

» Kirk - Health keeps Rukeyser on leave indefinitely

Health keeps Rukeyser on leave indefinitely

CNBC host absent from show since fall

By David Folkenflik
Sun Staff
May 4, 2004

Louis Rukeyser, who has been absent from his CNBC financial news show since last fall, is taking an indefinite leave because of health concerns, the cable network announced yesterday.
Rukeyser, who was last on the air on Oct. 31, underwent surgery at the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota for surgery to relieve pain in his back several months ago. In a statement released by CNBC yesterday, Rukeyser wrote that further tests revealed "a low-grade malignancy" that requires continued treatment. He did not return a call left at his home yesterday seeking additional comment.

"As I know you will understand, I am more than eager to be back on the job, but have no choice but to postpone my next appearance until the doctors tell me I'm ready," Rukeyser wrote in the statement. "As General Douglas MacArthur famously declared as he left the Philippine Islands during World War II, 'I shall return.'"

Rukeyser was host of the PBS staple Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser from 1970 to 2002, when he was told he would be ousted from the anchor's chair by his producers at Maryland Public Television. He was fired outright a few days later after complaining about the move on the air.

The next month, he started as the host of CNBC's almost identical new show, Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street that is broadcast at 8:30 p.m. on Friday night to compete with MPT's refashioned Wall Street Week with Fortune. Rukeyser's show has been picked up free of charge by more than 100 PBS stations across the country and has attracted a significant audience.

"Lou is an important and beloved member of our CNBC family, and we, like his millions of fans, are very much looking forward to his return," Pamela Thomas-Graham said in a CNBC press release. A series of guest hosts drawn from CNBC's ranks will continue to fill in for Rukeyser until his return.

-- posted by Kirk