WSW: Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street Summary &amp; Discussion $treet

Top 79. Jul 1, 2000 12:25 AM

» Kirk - Zweig is MORE optimistic

Yeah, and Marty Zweig is MORE optimistic now because so many people are now running around shouting bear! Mr Contrarian had a sly smile and a chuckle about that! Marty was one that RAISED his targets for the DOW.

Interesting too that I think they said 19 of the 21 stock pickers were in the black while the major index's were in the red.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 80. Jul 1, 2000 8:15 AM

» SteveT - David & Kirk,

David & Kirk,

David you asked for it, here it is. Lou Holland Low 9800 high 12,500 close 12,3000. Marty Zweig low 9900 high 12,075 close 11,250. Lou at that point kidded him about raising his close, laughingly called him an old contrarian. Brian Rogers low 9900 high 11,500 close 11,250. Barbara Marcin low no change(not stated) high 12,000 (lowered from new year guess of 14,000) close 12,000.

Kirk to you point about Marty. I wonder if it is easier to take risk when it is not real money. In a contest you have nothing to lose by taking more risk than you would otherwise take. If you guess wrong you don’t get your name in "lights" but if you do guess right you get a ton of free publicity. I have not looked at Zweig funds in some time but as I recall when I did it seemed he would have some performance anxiety.

-- posted by SteveT

Top 81. Jul 1, 2000 8:44 AM

» Kirk - LOL Steve

Yes, I believe Marty's Fund performance has been "rather limp" the past few years. 8)

Barbara Marcin didn't restate her low as it was only about 8 points away from the current low for the year. I was glad to see she wasn't so "exuberant" and lowered her high as you say.

I'll be interested to take a closer look at Kim Goodwin’s picks when she is on. I wonder what stocks gave her the strong finish? MSFT perhaps?

Also, looks like several, including Brian Rogers, reads Dreman as they liked Proctor and some others that were beaten way down... though I don't recall anyone banging the table for T at $30! 8)

-- posted by Kirk

Top 82. Jul 7, 2000 6:36 PM

» SteveT - July 7, 2000

July 7, 2000

Lou’s hallmark opening comments tonight dealt with trying to stay ahead of the curve. With a fictitious TV Reality Program with 18 cameras following a group of economists 24 hours a day to record what they agreed on. On week two the cameras follow all the FED governors. On week three they follow stock and bond experts on an Island. Conclusion Voyeurism under the right conditions can be a bore.

For 13 of the last 16 weeks neutral has been the right call for the Elves Index. This week John Kim switched from neutral to bullish bring them to plus 8.

Special Guests Jason Ader, Candace Browning, and Janice Meyer discussed travel and entertainment. Of all areas only the Gambling industry has out performed the S&P 500 over the last 18 Months. Prompting Lou to ask would it be better for investors to invest in these area or go on vacation?

Candace said the airlines are looking for a strong Summer with about 80% of seats filled. She sees consumers benefiting from mergers with little overlap and creation of networks so we can fly from any where to every where. Bad news food should improve, but is not ever going to be great. smile She thinks we could benefit from more deregulation so we can get foreign competition.

Jason sees record earnings for Gambling establishments and growth from new Properties attracting new Gamblers also some consolidation should help the bottom line. Non Gambling hotels are looking good as well according to Jason. Leisure and business travel are up. Best investments are in Large cities in the full service hotel sector. Jason said the Cruise industry does not look like a good place to invest due to over supply of ships.

Janice talked about everyone’s favorite subject food. Same store sales are positive in the ethnic areas of Chinese, Mexican, and Italian. Mention was made of a way to play the Chinese chain restaurants P F Changs China Bistro (ticker PFCB). Worries are a slowing economy and higher wages will hurt earnings growth in the over all sector. Interesting comment that is all to true, Consumers talk nutrition but don’t eat that way.

Next week; guest James E. Moltz Vice Chairman ISI Group, Inc. Panelists Ralph Acampora Frank Cappiello, and John Kim.

-- posted by SteveT

Top 83. Jul 7, 2000 7:41 PM

» Rande - Thanks Steve.

Thanks Steve. Missed the show, but I will say this -- I'm going to Las Vegas on business in a couple of weeks and on a personal vacation with the family the first week of August. Guess what? In both instances I'll be using an airline and a hotel, seeing some shows, eating lots, and doing a little gaming on the side. Timely show.

-- posted by Rande

Top 84. Jul 8, 2000 8:26 AM

» BumpyBrown - July 7 show

I missed last week's show, so this was my first gander at the "new format" for W$W (without "Ms. Smith" leading the panelists around the set).

I miss the general market discussion and stock picks that used to happen at the table in the second segment of the show. Perhaps I wouldn't miss it so much if the topic for the evening (travel, gaming, etc) had been a little more interesting to me.

The set has been "shrunk down", presumably so that the panelists won't walk around into walls and furniture without someone to show them where to go?

I did find it interesting that, as the moment looms when Brinker feels the rug will be pulled out from under the market, the elves have gone more bullish by one...

-- posted by BumpyBrown

Top 85. Jul 8, 2000 8:32 AM

» Kirk - Bumpy, I think Louis has used this format for guests in the past

Bumpy, I think Louis has used this format for guests in the past when there are more than one. The "table talk" is for regulars to discuss the market and letters and then they go to the living room after dinner to meet the special guest. When Louis has several special guests, he uses this format and skips the "table talk" so the guests have more time to talk and Lou asks all the questions.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 86. Jul 14, 2000 6:30 PM

» SteveT - Friday July 14, 2000

Friday July 14, 2000

OPENING COMMENT I missed it due to local station technical difficulties.

Frank Cappiello thinks the market in a word is crazy. Drug sector was hot 3 weeks ago now it is back to tech. He does like drug stocks long term.

Ralph Acampora said technically the market has been bad for 2 ½ years and the advance / decline line is looking better now than it has in the last 2 ½ years. He sees new highs in the tech sector also likes financials as he thinks rates are going lower.

John Kim rounded out the panel echoing bullish remarks. He thinks 2nd quarter earnings are going to be terrific. Saudi Arabia will drive oil to the mid $20s. John thinks inflation is over stated by traditional measures and sees the 21st century as a disinflationary environment.

Viewer questions were ordinary except for one that asked about Bridal registry for stocks or mutual funds instead of traditional department stores. Ralph had the answer http://www.stockgift.com/

Guest James E. Moltz from ISI Group. He thinks the market is beginning to look good as long as earnings stay healthy. Thinks opportunities will come from a wide range, including tech, health care, energy, and communications. James thinks drugs will have there ups and downs but should do well long term. He sees Bio tech and conventional drug companies merging and likes Natural gas in the energy field. He feels the 10 year treasury will be in the 5.8 - 5.6% range by year end and remain in the 5.8% area early next year. Lou asked about Internet stocks which he has avoided. He does like the Time Warner- AOL deal. Commenting on the importance of content. He feels they will have the resources to provide content people will want.

Next weeks guest George Gilbert Portfolio Manager Northern Technology Fund. Panelists will be Ed Brown, Liz Ann Sonders, and Marty Zweig.

-- posted by SteveT

Top 87. Jul 21, 2000 6:56 PM

» SteveT - Lous’s opening commentary tonight was a humorous look at possibl

Lous’s opening commentary tonight was a humorous look at possible Running Mates

Panelist Marty Zweig is neutral but with an upward bias. He thinks the FED can still go either way(think he meant hold or raise) . Looks like the economy is slowing and wonders what affect that will have on earnings.

Liz Ann Sonders feels the beaten Techs will come back provided earnings are good. She sees the big Techs doing good with productivity and earnings growing and the economy slowing.

Ed Brown is a growth at reasonable price guy, and thinks some sanity has returned to the market.

Lou showed a chart back to 1982 of the S&P500 and a tech index (Hambrecht & Quist?) the S&P returned 1108% while the tech index was up 2666%. Then introduced Guest George Gilbert co- manager of Northern Tech Fund.

Lou asked what lessons can be learned from the recent tech sell off? Answer, investors need to have realistic expectations. Simply these great returns we have had can not continue. Lou stated tech has been dominate the last decade and why should it dominate over the next 10 years. George explained that if we take semi-conductors, telecommunications equipment, and computers as a percentage of GDP, in 1992 it was 1% in 1999 it was over 8% while GDP rose in the 5-6 % range. Growth like that is the answer. Then they discussed Hardware and the changes from mainframe to PC to the current dominate area networking. PC makers were talked about and it was noted MSFT and INTC had slightly different outlooks for PC makers. Mr. Gilbert explained MSFT looks at data one or two months old while INTC looks at orders. Caution about using orders, you never know if the orders are due to actual demand or double ordering because of supply constraints. The answer should become clear in about two Quarters.

Marty asked for and opinion on AMZN. George is not a big fan of e-tailers but thinks if any will make it Amazon will. Cash flow and how they use it is a big concern. I got the impression he would not include it in his personal portfolio.

Liz asked about the general spending for technology by corporations. Mr. Gilbert gave what I thought a very basic answer. There are three reasons to spend money for technology. 1. Information 2. Communication 3. Productivity gains, this is the reason corporations spend money to improve return on investment.

Ed asked how he handles stocks that disappoint on earnings? He looks at why if it is lack of demand he sells, if supply constraints he may be forgiving so to speak.

Lou finished up asking about JDSU. He likes it long term as well as the entire Optical area. He is avoiding the Mainframe companies. Likes Storage Companies that will provide data to customers 365 days a year.

Next weeks Guest Howard Ward Manager Gabelli Growth Fund. Panelists will be Mary Farrell, Michael Holland and Kim Goodwin. Remeber Kim Goodwin's New Years picks made a strong late surge to finish second in the mid year portfolio contest.

-- posted by SteveT