WSW: Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street Summary & Discussion $treet
- Marteau89
- Normxxx
- TipsTraders
- SteveT
- Normxxx
- TipsTraders
- Kirk
- TipsTraders
- Normxxx
- Kirk
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» TipsTraders - Re: Re: Re: 3-19-04
In response to message posted by SteveT:Steve, I agree that in some (maybe many) instances the tippers do have ulterior motives. That is why I started tracking their advice, so that the record might show and possibly disqualify some names.
On the other hand the shows are an invaluable marketing opportunity for many of these analysts, so they might be eager to present their very best bets when they have the chance. I cannot believe I am the only one to 'take notes' on their recommendations, which will come back and haunt them if not given cautiously. I know Tobin Smith really hates my website.
Rukeyser's is certainly very different from the business blocks on FOX. I for one can do without the yelling and screaming and settle for the 'food for thought'. I just find it far too difficult to try to look 5 years ahead. For me trading stocks works much better than investing in them.
-- posted by TipsTraders
» Normxxx - Re: Re: Re: Re: 3-19-04
In response to message posted by TipsTraders:Since about 95% of investors do not actually use paid advice, I would expect it to be much worse for the free advice. And, unless you actually buy one of these stocks, it's out of sight (or hearing?), out of mind. Besides, you normally get at least one new recommendation per week. Over the course of a year, you are bound to have some great winners. Then you just tout those for the usual selective track record.
But, I agree, they probably do their best on the shows, it's just that their 'best' is rarely much better than chance. If you figure that they probably put out recommendations on several hundred stocks in the course of a year, and there are probably no more than a few thousand 'live' stocks on the exhanges (omitting the BB), then they are bound to catch some really good ones overall, on a regular basis. Have you found any to be consistently above average, say, on a 5 year basis? Hulbert finds that regression towards the mean is a powerful force among the advisers who don't drop out.
-- posted by Normxxx
» TipsTraders - Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: 3-19-04
In response to message posted by Normxxx:"Then you just tout those for the usual selective track record."
That is exactly why I started tracking on my own.
No, I don't have 5 years of records, I started 1 year ago. But yes, the pattern is very clear, f.ex. Gregory Spear has consistently and significantly outperformed most others throughout this period. So has John Bollinger.
-- posted by TipsTraders
» Kirk - Re: Tracking Stock Picks on WSW
.In response to message posted by TipsTraders:
Welcome to the group!
No, I don't have 5 years of records, I started 1 year ago.
You really need a 5 year period or more to really get a handle on how well anyone does. I'd look very, very good if you only looked at 2003 for my stock picks but I'd not look so hot in bear markets. Most of the people you track probably make changes to their portfolios AND have other investments in them so it is pretty hard to make conclusions.
I'd say it would be interesting to track their picks for a year and who seems to do the best one year later after several years of picks.
Often the conservative pickers do the best in bear markets and the aggressive pickers do the best in bull markets. Hopefully, your data would show the likes of Liz Ann Sonders who was recommending tech stocks that lost 95% of their value in 2000 and 2001 and was recommending dividend paying, conservative stocks at the bottom in 2002.
-- posted by Kirk
» TipsTraders - Re: Re: Tracking Stock Picks on WSW
In response to message posted by Kirk:Thank you, Kirk. I agree, you can never have enough information. But if I had 5 years of data at this point, I would probably disregard the first 4 years.
The idea is not to try to assert the quality of analyzers and their longterm investments, it is to identify the tipsters whose current recommendations are most likely to bring a profit when submitted to my particular trading strategy and mindless disciplin. So far (knock on wood) this has worked nicely, not just in net gains (what hasn't?) but compared to the top lists and the major indexes.
So Liz Ann Sonders was bullish in 2000 and failed to call the bottom in 2003, along with the vast majority of analysts. That certainly would not cause me to dismiss her more recent picks and views. In my many years of stock trading I have made heaps of mistakes, changed strategy several times, adapted new techniques and hopefully learned some valuable lessons. I believe the same must be true for professional advizors. I much more resent those who take a permanent bullish stand, figuring that if they are allways bullish they will prove to be right most of the time.
I believe the power is not primarily in the number of data. It is in finding the right parameters to evaluate by, and in adjusting and tweaking these parameters according to market conditions.
-- posted by TipsTraders
» Kirk - Re: Re: Re: Tracking Stock Picks on WSW
In response to message posted by TipsTraders:So Liz Ann Sonders was bullish in 2000 and failed to call the bottom in 2003, along with the vast majority of analysts. That certainly would not cause me to dismiss her more recent picks and views.
It is not a matter of being bullish or bearish as those are marketing terms except for traders.
She recommended Exodus and I believe Veritas in early 2000 and again in 2001 (I am pretty sure she was still with those rec's in 2001). I and others said B2B internet was a great market but companies like IBM would compete with these smaller companies and eat their lunch. Also, for a B2B stock, I specifically recommended FedEx as it was a company with a business model that made money AND would benefit from online ordering.
My B2B Stock, FDX: http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/i...
"I have had FedEx in my Savvy Stock portfolio as my B2B stock pick." Kirk on November 17, 1999
I have a hard time giving any analysis much credit when they were so fooled by the internet stocks. Analysts that failed to see that the big companies would go after the 2% fee that most of these B2B's thought they'd be able to charge for billion dollar markets.... and do it for 0.02%... simply showed me that 99% of analysts have NEVER designed a product or process to sell and were at a huge disadvantage over some of us who have. Even Exodus... did Liz Ann really think that Dell and HP would sit still and let somemone make so much money selling servers?
anyway, rant mode off! 
-- posted by Kirk
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