WSW: Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street Summary & Discussion $treet


  1. SteveT
  2. JeffChristy
  3. JeffChristy
  4. SteveT
  5. Kirk
  6. Kirk
  7. Kirk
  8. Kirk
  9. SteveT
  10. SteveT

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Top 728.   Dec 28, 2003 7:02 AM

» SteveT - 12-26-03

Ted David served as guest host as Lou continues to mend. 2003 despite a few ups and downs did turn out to be a much better year than most thought a year ago. Panelist Gretchen Lash’s stock picks of a year ago did earn her fourth place (51.88% YTD) in the annual stock picking contest but she couldn’t appear, so Barbara Marcin rounded out the panel for the annual Black Tie year end show.

Laszlo Birinyi was the top stock picker in 2003 returning 82.13% year to date. He didn’t expect to do quite so well as most of his picks were dividend plays that he thought would benefit from a change in tax laws. The economic indicator he is watching in 2004 is employment. His top performer for 03 was Yahoo returning 177%, he would sell 25% of that position. The weak Dollar is not going to influence his investment decisions in the coming year. Laszlo’s 2004 picks are Cendant (CD), Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE), Country Wide Financial (CFC) Freddie Mac (FRE), Sun Microsystems (SUNW), Liberty Media (L), Tenet Healthcare (THC) Washington Mutual (WM), and Western Digital (WDC). New York Public Group is one I am not sure of, I may have misheard it.


Lou Holland’s biggest surprise was how well the lower quality high beta stocks did. He expects the higher quality stocks to lead the way in 2004. He is going to be watching the employment and GDP indicators this year. His best pick for 2003 was Amdocs coming in at 129%. It was beaten down but has good products and a leader in the sector. His biggest mistake was Microsoft. Holland does not worry about the weak Dollar or politics when picking stocks. He looks for a great franchise, great management and to buy them cheap. All but one of his picks for 2004 have under performed the S&P 500 in 2003. That one exception is Country Wide Financial (CFC). The others are Kohl’s (KSS), Pfizer (PFE), First Health Group (FHCC), Viacom (VIAb), Affiliated Computer Services (ACS), Weight Watchers International (WTW), Willis Group ( WSH), and American International Group (AIG).

Roger McNamee was amazed the market powered through the war, SARS and the deficit. The fantastic performance makes him more cautious about 2004. He is going to be watching the employment numbers and interest rates in 2004. His best pick was AmeriTrade up 137%. He thought the market would do well and thinks AmeriTrade is the most efficient and best managed of the on-line brokers. His biggest mistake for 2003 was Concord EFS down for the year 27%, he has sold it. McNamee said not all your picks are going to be right and that is why you diversify and dollar cost average. The one stock he wishes he would have bought is Apple Computer. Roger is not worried about the weak dollar and suggests when trying to evaluate if a news story, be it the election, flu, terrorism or budget deficits, ask yourself if it will be a big story a ear from now. Stocks he picks for 2004 are Seagate Technology (STX), Intuit (INTU), Flextronics (FLEX), Cisco (CSCO), Business Objects (BOBJ), and Motorola (MOT).

Barbara Marcin thinks 2003 was a good year due to improved cash flow and earnings. Perhaps the biggest reason was expanded multiples. She is going to be watching the employment reports for the ultimate sign of confidence of future business expansion. Her best pick in 2003 was Cendant at 106%. It had a bad couple years due to management problems and is a stock she is keeping again this year as it will start paying a dividend. Darden Restaurants was a mistake she sold mid year. She wishes she would have bought more technology stocks for 2003. Marcin is not worried about the weak dollar but does think terrorism is a big concern. Her picks for 2004 are Cendant (CD), AES Corp (AES), El Paso Corp (EP), Honeywell International (HON), Liberty Media (L), First Energy (FE), Dow Chemical (DOW), Wyeth (WYE), Sirius Satellite (SIRI) and XM Satellite (XMSR).

Next weeks special guest will be Abby Joseph Cohen, Chief investment strategist Goldman Sachs. Let’s hope we start the New Year off right with Lou’s return. As stated above a transcript is available at 1-800-777-8398. 2003 or request it via e-mail transcripts@burrelles.com. Year to date returns can be found for all panelists here. http://www.rukeyser.com/tvshow/panelist_... By clicking on each members name it will give you their picks and returns YTD, usually updated at the end of each month. At some point I expect it will be updated with the 2004 picks. Happy New Year and wishing all a prosperous 2004.

-- posted by SteveT



Top 729.   Dec 28, 2003 11:51 AM

» JeffChristy - Re: 12-26-03

In response to message posted by SteveT:

Steve I have the show on tape. I think Laszlo said New Public Group. After searching both Yahoo Finance and Google, I can't find the symbol. I even tried Nu Public.

-- posted by JeffChristy



Top 730.   Dec 29, 2003 12:20 PM

» JeffChristy - Re: 12-26-03

In response to message posted by SteveT:

Steve

I think I have finally figured out Laszlo's mystery stock. While he said new public group I think he meant to say Interpublic Group (IPG). I did a google search on "laszlo birinyi public group" and came up with this:

:http://www.vankampen.com/products/uit/BE...

It contains stocks he liked in October and Interpublic Group was one of them. There are a few others that were also on his list last Friday.

-- posted by JeffChristy



Top 731.   Dec 29, 2003 12:49 PM

» SteveT - Re: Re: 12-26-03

In response to message posted by JeffChristy:

Thanks Jeff. Looks right to me, and is confirmed here. http://www.rukeyser.com/tvshow/guestsnpa...

-- posted by SteveT



Top 732.   Dec 29, 2003 12:53 PM

» Kirk - 12-26-03 Stock Picks

.
December 26, 2003 Year End Show
http://www.rukeyser.com/tvshow/guestsnpa...

Guest Host:
Ted David

Panelists:
Laszlo Birinyi, President, Birinyi Associates
1. Liberty Media (L)
2. Sun Microsystems (SUNW)
3. Cendant (CD)
4. Western Digital (WDC)
5. Washington Mutual (WM)
6. Tenet Healthcare (THC)
7. Interpublic Group (IPG)
8. Freddie Mac (FRE)
9. Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE)
10. CountryWide Financial (CFC)

Lou Holland, Chief Investment Officer, Holland Capital Management
1. Kohls (KSS)
2. Pfizer (PFE)
3. FirstHealth Group (FHCC)
4. Viacom (VIAB)
5. Affiliated Computer Services (ACS)
6. Weight Watchers Int'l (WTW)
7. Willis Group (WSH)
8. Countrywide Financial (CFC)
9. American International Group (AIG)

Barbara Marcin, Portfolio Manager, Gabelli Blue Chip Value Fund
1. Cendant (CD)
2. AES Corporation (AES)
3. El Paso (EP)
4. Honeywell (HON)
5. Liberty Media (L)
6. First Energy (FE)
7. Dow Chemical (DOW)
8. Wyeth (WYE)
9. Sirius Satellite (SIRI)
10. XMSR (XMSR)

Roger McNamee, Co-Founder, Integral Capital Partners
1. Seagate (STX)
2. Cisco (CSCO)
3. Business Objects (BOBJ)
4. Intuit (INTU)
5. Flextronics (FLEX)
6. Motorola (MOT)

-- posted by Kirk



Top 733.   Dec 29, 2003 12:59 PM

» Kirk - December 12, 2003 Stock Picks

.
December 12, 2003 Stock Picks

Guest Host:
Tyler Mathisen
Special Guest:
Jim Norris, Partner & Co-Manager, Cooke & Bieler
1. Haemonetics Corporation (HAE)
2. Big Lots (BLI)
3. Steelcase Corporation (SCS)

Panelists:
Mary Farrell, Chief Investment Strategist, UBS Wealth Management
1. Schlumberger (SLB)
2. Estee Lauder (EL)
3. Pfizer (PFE)

Frank Gannon, Portfolio Manager, SunAmerica
1. Burlington Resources (BR)
2. Goldman Sachs (GS)
3. Carnival Corporation (CCL)

Brian Rogers, Portfolio Manager, T. Rowe Price Group
1. Viacom (VIA)
2. Marsh & McLennan (MMC)
3. E. I. DuPont De Nemours (DD)

-- posted by Kirk



Top 734.   Dec 29, 2003 1:00 PM

» Kirk - 12/19/03 Stock Picks

.
December 19, 2003

Guest Host:
Bill Griffeth

Special Guest:
Michelle Clayman, Founder and Chief Investment Officer, New Amsterdam Partners
1. Analog Devices (ADI)
2. Barr Laboratories (BRL)
3. Corinthian Colleges (COCO)
4. Estee Lauder (EL)
5. Pulte Homes (PHM)

Panelists:
Ed Brown, President, Brown Capital Management
1. Panera Bread (PNRA)
2. Boston Scientific (BSX)
3. Kohl's Corporation (KSS)

Nick Sargen, Chief Investment Officer, Fort Washington Investment Advisors
1. General Electric (GE)
2. Masco (MAS)
3. Valero Energy (VLO)
4. McKesson (MCK)

Marty Zweig, Fund Manager, Zweig-DiMenna
1. Countrywide Credit (CFC)
2. Pulte Homes (PHM)
3. Centex (CTX)
4. Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY)
5. Amgen (AMGN)

-- posted by Kirk



Top 735.   Dec 29, 2003 1:01 PM

» Kirk - December 5, 2003 Stock Picks

.
December 5, 2003

Guest Host:
Maria Bartiromo

Special Guest:
Larry Auriana, Portfolio Manager, Federated Kaufmann Fund
1. Advanced Auto Parts (AAP)
2. Central European Media (CETV)
3. Dyax (DYAX)
4. Orthofix (OFIX)

Panelists:
Beth Dater, Private Investor
1. Accredo Health (ACDO)
2. Crown Holdings (CCK)
3. Westwood One (WON)

Kim Goodwin, Chief Investment Officer, State Street Research
1. Coach (COH)
2. Agilent Technologies (A)
3. Tom Brown (TBI)

-- posted by Kirk



Top 736.   Dec 30, 2003 2:22 PM

» SteveT - Panelist Picks for 2004


Panelist Picks for 2004 (See disclosure information at end of stock picks)

p.s. The panelists that appeared in the year end show didn't give high, low, and close on the DOW & NASDAQ so I have included their picks here too. I hate to be redundant but it does add to the total package.

Rich Bernstein

DJIA NASDAQ High: 10600 2100 Low: 8650 1460 Close: 8650 1460

RTN Raytheon XON ExxonMobil CAG ConAgra ABT Abbott Labs 30 Year T-bond IGW
Ishares/Goldman Sachs Semiconductor ETF (Short Ishares)

Ed Brown

DJIA NASDAQ High: 11650 2290 Low: 10000 1855 Close: 11340 2210

KSS Kohl's Corporation BSX Boston Scientific PNRA Panera Bread Company EBAY
Ebay TXN Texas Instruments SDS Sungard Data Systems DKS Dick's Sporting Goods
SPLS Staples

Laslo Birinyi

DJIA NASDAQ High: 12300 2350 Low: 9800 1850 Close: 12300 2350

L Liberty Media SUNW Sun Microsystems CD Cendant WDC Western Digital WM
Washington Mutual THC Tenet Healthcare IPG Interpublic Group FRE Freddie Mac
CCE Coca-Cola Enterprises CFC CountryWide Financial

Frank Cappiello

DJIA NASDAQ High: 11340 2575 Low: 9575 1755 Close 10750 2234

ACGL Arch Capital AIG Amer International AVY Avery Dennison BAX Baxter
International CAH Cardinal Health CD Cendant HD Home Depot EWJ iShares Japan
PFE Pfizer SU Suncor

Beth Dater

DJIA NASDAQ High: 12560.72 2346.96 Low: 7750.25 1564.64 Close: 11587.04 2151.38

ACDO Accredo Health Systems DOX Amdoc Limited AMGN Amgen Incorporated CCK Crown
Holdings BEN Franklin Resources GYMB Gymboree Corporation JDAS JDA Software
Group PACR Pacer International PXD Pioneer Natural Resources WON Westwood One

Alison Deans

DJIA NASDAQ High: 11400 2100 Low: 9900 1900 Close: 10950 2050

TAPA Travelers SPLS Staples AFC Allmerica L Liberty Media MHK Mohawk Industries
SGP Schering Plough VIAB Viacom HPQ Hewlett Packard

Harvey Eisen

DJIA NASDAQ High: 12500 2825 Low: 8500 1750 Close: 11800 2475

GPX G.P. Strategies HLTH WebMD Corporation WTV Value Vision Media LEG Leggett &
Pratt IVX Ivax ONE Bank One TAP/A Travelers Property Casualty LVLT Level 3
Communications

Mary Farrell

DJIA NASDAQ High: 11500 2300 Low: 9800 1760 Close: 11200 2250

BAC Bank of America CSCO Cisco Systems INTC Intel Corporation KO Coca-Cola JPM
JP Morgan Chase PFE Pfizer PG Proctor & Gamble UNH United Health Group WMT
Wal-Mart Stores XOM ExxonMobilCorp

Tom Gallagher

DJIA NASDAQ High: 12000 2300 Low: 9500 1800 Close: 11111 2100

EDH5C 97 March '05 eurodollar call, strike 97 JYH5 March '05 yen future GCG5
February '05 gold future XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR fund XLE Energy
Select Sector SPDR fund UTSI UTSI

Frank Gannon

DJIA NASDAQ High: 11700 2400 Low: 9900 1750 Close: 11300 2250

PVN Providian Financial Group QLGC Qlogic Corporation XRX Xerox Corporation TWX
Time Warner IPG Interpublic Group of Comp. NWAC Northwest Airlines Corp. GNTX
Gentex Corporation MRO Marathon Oil Corporation PFE Pfizer EDS Electronic Data
Systems

Kim Goodwin

DJIA NASDAQ High: 11130 2222 Low: 10005 1950 Close: 11130 2165

ESE Esco Technologies MTG MGIC Investment Corp. KMX CarMax TBI Tom Brown SNDX
SanDisk Corporation TSM Taiwan Semiconductor GMH GM Hughes Int'l Ind. HAR
Harman International Ind. FRX Forest Laboratories

Lou Holland

DJIA NASDAQ High: 12926 2369.58 Low: 9307 1481.09 Close: 11581 2172.25

KSS Kohls PFE Pfizer FHCC FirstHealth Group VIAB Viacom ACS Affiliated Computer
Serv. WTW Weight Watchers Int'l. WSH Willis Group CFC Countrywide Financial
AIG American International Group

Mike Holland

DJIA NASDAQ High: 12345 2345 Low: 9111 1776 Close: 12321 2321

XOM ExxonMobil DIA Dow Jones Industrials ETF OIH Oil Service ETF XLB S&P
Materials ETF XLI S&P Industrials ETF

John Kim

DJIA NASDAQ High: 12000 2500 Low: 9500 1750 Close: 11500 2400

HEW Hewlett Packard SRA Serono WFHC Womens First HC CSCO Cisco SCH Charles
Schwab SIRI Sirius Satellite Radio HIG Hartford Financial

Gretchen Lash

DJIA NASDAQ High: 11650 2280 Low: 11650 1875 Close: 985 2250

FDO Family Dollar Stores LOW Lowe's Companies UVN Univision Communications FNM
Fannie Mae TEVA Teva Pharmaceutical Ind. HPQ Hewlett Packard Company MQT
Motorola ERTS Electronic Arts EMZ GEMZ DISH Echostar Communications

Barbara Marcin

DJIA NASDAQ High: 12000 2370 Low: 9380 1600 Close: 11800 2170

CD Cendant AES AES Corporation EP El Paso HON Honeywell L Liberty Media FE
First Energy DOW Dow Chemical WYE Wyeth SIRI Sirius Satellite XMSR XMSR

Roger McNamee

DJIA NASDAQ High: 11582.21 2428.98 Low: 10341.26 987.38 Close: 11375.39 2271

STX Seagate CSCO Cisco BOBJ Business Objects INTU Intuit FLEX Flextronics MOT
Motorola

Brian Rogers

DJIA NASDAQ High: 12000 2300 Low: 9600 1600 Close: 11850 2200

BMY Bristol Meyers IFF International Flavors MMC Mash & McLennan NWL Newell
Rubbermaid Q Qwest RTN Raytheon UNM Unum WIN Winn Dixie WYE Wyeth VIA.B Viacom

Nick Sargen

DJIA NASDAQ High: 12350 2600 Low: 9400 1600 Close: 11500 2300

GE General Electric MAS Masco CSC Computer Science Corp. VLO Valero CMCSK
Comcast MCK McKesson WTI West Texas Intermediate

Liz Ann Sonders

DJIA NASDAQ High: 12300 2500 Low: 9800 1850 Close: 11500 2300

HNI HON Industries CVH Coventry Health Care CTXS Citrix Systems ASPT Aspect
Communications PPP Pogo Producing MON Monsanto PTRY Pantry DGII DIGI
International F Ford PRU Prudential Financial

Bob Stovall

DJIA NASDAQ High: 11355.5 2305 Low: 9915.25 1865 Close: 10872.5 2195

BA Boeing JNJ Johnson & Johnson KRB MBNA MOT Motorola MRK Merck NG Nova Gold
NUE Nucor Corporation TSG Sabre Holdings "A" SSL Sasol UNH Unitedhealth Group

Marty Zweig

DJIA NASDAQ High: 10875 Low: 8625 (Panelist has no Close: 9325 prediction)

1 year t-note 1.625 January '05 (50 weighting) Gold bullion future - 1 year (50
weighting)

Rich Bernstein

Company Banking Personal/ ML 1 ML officer or director Name Relationship Family
Ownership an officer or director Ownership of company

(Yes/No) (Yes/No) (Yes/No) (Yes/No)

ABT Yes No Yes No RTN Yes No Yes No XOM Yes No No No CAG Yes No Yes No

Laszlo Birinyi - The panelist personally owns the following stocks: SUNW, WM
and CFC. Additionally, the panelist owns through his firms managed accounts
the following stocks: L, SUNW, CD, WM and CFC. Birinyi Associates does not
have any investment banking relationships with any company.

Ed Brown - The panelist's firm owns all of these stocks on behalf of clients.

Frank Cappiello - McCullough, Andrews & Cappiello owns these stocks in client
accounts and the panelist owns some of these stocks personally.

Beth Dater - The panelist failed to provide the requested disclosure.

Harvey Eisen - The panelist failed to provide the requested disclosure.

Alison Deans - The panelist owns of the stocks recommended.

Mary Farrell - Bank of America - UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries has
acted as manager/co-manager in the underwriting or placement of securities of
this company or one of its affiliates within the past 12 months. UBS AG, its
affiliates or subsidiaries has acted as manager/co-manager in the underwriting
or placement of securities of this company or one of its affiliates within the
past three years. Within the past 12 months, UBS AG, its affiliates or
subsidiaries has received compensation for investment banking services from
this company.

- Cisco Systems 0 UBS Securities LLC makes a market in the securities and/or
ADRs of this company. The analyst covering this company, a member of his or
her team, or one of their household members has a long common stock position in
this company. Within the past 12 months, UBS AG, its affiliates or
subsidiaries has received compensation for investment banking services from
this company.

- Intel Corp - UBS Securities LLC makes a market in the securities and/or ADRs
of this company

- Coca-Cola - UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries expect to receive or
intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company
within the next three months. Within the past 12 months, UBS AG, its
affiliates or subsidiaries has received compensation for investment banking
services from this company.

- JP Morgan Chase - UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries has acted as
manager/co-manager in the underwriting or placement of securities of this
company or one of its affiliates within the past 12 months. Within the past
three years, UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries has received compensation
for investment banking services from this company. UBS AG, its affiliates or
subsidiaries has acted as manager/co-manager in the underwriting or placement
of s curities of this company or one of its affiliates within the past three
years.

- Pfizer - UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries beneficially owned 1 or more
of a class of this company`s common equity securities as of last month`s end
(or the prior month`s end if this report is dated less than 10 days after the
most recent month`s end). Within the past 12 months, UBS AG, its affiliates or
subsidiaries has received compensation for investment banking services from
this company.

- Proctor & Gamble -UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries has acted as
manager/co-manager in the underwriting or placement of securities of this
company or one of its affiliates within the past five years.

- United Health Group - UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries has acted as
manager/co-manager in the underwriting or placement of securities of this
company or one of its affiliates within the past 12 months. Within the past 12
months, UBS AG, its affi iates or subsidiaries has received compensation for
investment banking services from this company.

- Wal-Mart Stores - No Disclosures

- ExxonMobil Corp - No Disclosures

Tom Gallagher - I don't own any of these securities directly. I own UTStarcom
through a Wilshire index fund.

Kim Goodwin - The panelist owns all of the stocks through holdings in State
Street Research.

Frank Gannon - The panelist failed to provide the requested disclosure.

Lou Holland - The panelist owns all of the stocks he recommended.

Mike Holland - The Panelist owns ExxonMobil in his fund.

John Kim - The Panelist owns all of the stocks the recommended.

Gretchen Lash

Barbara Marcin - The panelist owns all of these picks directly or through
Gabelli Asset Management, which she owns.

Roger McNamee - The panelist owns all of the stocks except Motorola.

Nick Sargen - The stocks mentioned by the panelist are in portfolios held by
Fort Washington Investment Advisors. The firm, however, is not shorting oil -
this is simply a forecast.

Brian Rogers The panelist has a significant investment in the Price Equity
Income Fund which holds each of the companies mentioned.

Liz Ann Sonders - Schwab has received compensation from Ford and Prudential for
participating in investment banking services (fixed income offerings) in the
past 12 months and expects to receive compensation for fixed income offerings
from Ford in the next three months.

Bob Stovall - Wood Asset Management clients and/or the panelist owns all 10 of
these stocks.

Marty Zweig - The panelist does not own gold bullion but does own the 1 year
t-bond.

-- posted by SteveT



Top 737.   Jan 4, 2004 7:11 AM

» SteveT - 1-2-04

We start 2004 with Sue Herera sitting in for Lou and she indicated Lou is expected to make a full recovery. Sue reviewed some of the major events of 2003 which I am sure you have already heard. She did spend some time on commodity prices rising in 03 saying Platinum bodes well for a continuing recovery in manufacturing. She finished speculating if the weak Dollar and higher oil prices would be worrisome for inflation down the road?

Mike Holland says 03 was a great year after three bad ones. If you look back at what people were saying a year ago about the economy and markets, we did get to an over sold condition. Now is a pivotal time, will it be to a bear or upward with this new bull? Mike thinks it is more likely the bull will prevail in 04. The ISM numbers release Friday morning were strong, profit momentum is increasing, inflation is low. In this environment it is hard to imagine stocks doing poorly. Holland sees strength in China and India and they will be consuming more energy and are starting to import oil. For that reason he like Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Schlumberger (SLB).

Liz ann Sonders thinks things still look terrific. She does not think there is too much optimism. She believe many individual investors are still skeptical. Some are worrying about inflation and rising rates. Sonders think 2004 could be a year where earnings acceleration could top stock price increases. She thinks economic growth and earnings are still under stated. We could end 04 with better valuations than we started with. Liz Ann is favorable on energy too and likes Pogo Producing (PPP). She also likes Ford (F), HON Industries (HNI), and Monsanto (MON).

Frank Cappiello says the economy looks terrific and he is very bullish. He believes the FED will start raising rates by summer, then the elections come around. The market has a Bush victory priced in along with Republicans maintaining control of Congress. He says if the Dollar continues to weaken the FED is going to have to move quicker to preserve the integrity of the Dollar. He said a weak Dollar is a very bad thing. Frank recommends staying with this market but did say in his life he has never seen so much speculation in such a short period of time. There are 200 IPOs ready to go. Stocks Cappiello likes are Baxter International (BAX) and I-Shares of Japan (EWJ).

Sue then introduced special guest Abby Joseph Cohen. Abby thinks 2004 will be less interesting than 2003. She expects profit growth and stocks to end higher, by years end the S&P 500 target is 1250 and the DOW at 11,800. Profit growth was rapid the second half of 03 and that should decelerate in 2004. She said the FED will be less friendly but it will take a long time for then to get "ugly". Abby expects 2004 GDP to be around 4% and profit growth in the low double digits. She went on to say the five and ten year bonds are now assuming the FED will begin tightening in May or June. That is already priced into the market. She don't think the increases will be dramatic since there are no signs of inflation. She mentioned a term called "snugging" could come into play. Perhaps this year or next we could see very small increases in short term rates to reflect what was already built into the bond market.

Mike asked Abby for advice to new investors on how to handle volatile markets. She said it is good when investors are a little nervous, they think about what could go wrong. They also need to think about fundamentals. Over long periods of time what drives stock prices is the economy. The U.S. economy is extraordinarily competitive in the world. Our outlook is good, we have a strong banking system, and great productivity. She advises balance, diversification, and a true sense of risk tolerance. Liz Ann asked Abby to contrast Asia and Europe economies with the U.S. The U.S. has moved away from a competitive trade model where we try to produce everything as cheaply as China or India. We have moved to comparative trade model where we try to use our most precious resources of people and capital to produce high value added products and services. She believes out trade deficit will improve as the economies of Europe improve. Frank said commodity prices have gone off the charts and asked if Alan Greenspan will act sooner vs. later due to commodity prices. She doesn't think the FED will be overly responsive to rising commodity prices. One reason is rising commodity prices indicate demand is increasing. Also some of the increase is due to the weak Dollar, if you adjust for that the rise is not nearly so dramatic.

Next weeks special guest will be Hersh Cohen manager Smith Barney Appreciation Fund.

-- posted by SteveT



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