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WSW: Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street Summary & Discussion $treet
This archived discussion is "read only". « Previous 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 Next » » SteveT - 12-26-03 Ted David served as guest host as Lou continues to mend. 2003 despite a few ups and downs did turn out to be a much better year than most thought a year ago. Panelist Gretchen Lash’s stock picks of a year ago did earn her fourth place (51.88% YTD) in the annual stock picking contest but she couldn’t appear, so Barbara Marcin rounded out the panel for the annual Black Tie year end show.Laszlo Birinyi was the top stock picker in 2003 returning 82.13% year to date. He didn’t expect to do quite so well as most of his picks were dividend plays that he thought would benefit from a change in tax laws. The economic indicator he is watching in 2004 is employment. His top performer for 03 was Yahoo returning 177%, he would sell 25% of that position. The weak Dollar is not going to influence his investment decisions in the coming year. Laszlo’s 2004 picks are Cendant (CD), Coca-Cola Enterprises (CCE), Country Wide Financial (CFC) Freddie Mac (FRE), Sun Microsystems (SUNW), Liberty Media (L), Tenet Healthcare (THC) Washington Mutual (WM), and Western Digital (WDC). New York Public Group is one I am not sure of, I may have misheard it. Roger McNamee was amazed the market powered through the war, SARS and the deficit. The fantastic performance makes him more cautious about 2004. He is going to be watching the employment numbers and interest rates in 2004. His best pick was AmeriTrade up 137%. He thought the market would do well and thinks AmeriTrade is the most efficient and best managed of the on-line brokers. His biggest mistake for 2003 was Concord EFS down for the year 27%, he has sold it. McNamee said not all your picks are going to be right and that is why you diversify and dollar cost average. The one stock he wishes he would have bought is Apple Computer. Roger is not worried about the weak dollar and suggests when trying to evaluate if a news story, be it the election, flu, terrorism or budget deficits, ask yourself if it will be a big story a ear from now. Stocks he picks for 2004 are Seagate Technology (STX), Intuit (INTU), Flextronics (FLEX), Cisco (CSCO), Business Objects (BOBJ), and Motorola (MOT). Barbara Marcin thinks 2003 was a good year due to improved cash flow and earnings. Perhaps the biggest reason was expanded multiples. She is going to be watching the employment reports for the ultimate sign of confidence of future business expansion. Her best pick in 2003 was Cendant at 106%. It had a bad couple years due to management problems and is a stock she is keeping again this year as it will start paying a dividend. Darden Restaurants was a mistake she sold mid year. She wishes she would have bought more technology stocks for 2003. Marcin is not worried about the weak dollar but does think terrorism is a big concern. Her picks for 2004 are Cendant (CD), AES Corp (AES), El Paso Corp (EP), Honeywell International (HON), Liberty Media (L), First Energy (FE), Dow Chemical (DOW), Wyeth (WYE), Sirius Satellite (SIRI) and XM Satellite (XMSR). Next weeks special guest will be Abby Joseph Cohen, Chief investment strategist Goldman Sachs. Let’s hope we start the New Year off right with Lou’s return. As stated above a transcript is available at 1-800-777-8398. 2003 or request it via e-mail transcripts@burrelles.com. Year to date returns can be found for all panelists here. http://www.rukeyser.com/tvshow/panelist_... By clicking on each members name it will give you their picks and returns YTD, usually updated at the end of each month. At some point I expect it will be updated with the 2004 picks. Happy New Year and wishing all a prosperous 2004. -- posted by SteveT » JeffChristy - Re: 12-26-03 In response to message posted by SteveT:Steve I have the show on tape. I think Laszlo said New Public Group. After searching both Yahoo Finance and Google, I can't find the symbol. I even tried Nu Public. -- posted by JeffChristy » JeffChristy - Re: 12-26-03 In response to message posted by SteveT:Steve I think I have finally figured out Laszlo's mystery stock. While he said new public group I think he meant to say Interpublic Group (IPG). I did a google search on "laszlo birinyi public group" and came up with this: :http://www.vankampen.com/products/uit/BE... It contains stocks he liked in October and Interpublic Group was one of them. There are a few others that were also on his list last Friday. -- posted by JeffChristy » SteveT - Re: Re: 12-26-03 In response to message posted by JeffChristy:Thanks Jeff. Looks right to me, and is confirmed here. http://www.rukeyser.com/tvshow/guestsnpa... -- posted by SteveT » Kirk - 12-26-03 Stock Picks .December 26, 2003 Year End Show http://www.rukeyser.com/tvshow/guestsnpa... Guest Host: Panelists: -- posted by Kirk » Kirk - December 12, 2003 Stock Picks .December 12, 2003 Stock Picks Guest Host: -- posted by Kirk » Kirk - 12/19/03 Stock Picks .December 19, 2003 Guest Host: Special Guest: -- posted by Kirk » Kirk - December 5, 2003 Stock Picks .December 5, 2003 Guest Host: Special Guest: -- posted by Kirk » SteveT - Panelist Picks for 2004 Panelist Picks for 2004 (See disclosure information at end of stock picks) p.s. The panelists that appeared in the year end show didn't give high, low, and close on the DOW & NASDAQ so I have included their picks here too. I hate to be redundant but it does add to the total package. Rich Bernstein DJIA NASDAQ High: 10600 2100 Low: 8650 1460 Close: 8650 1460 RTN Raytheon XON ExxonMobil CAG ConAgra ABT Abbott Labs 30 Year T-bond IGW Ed Brown DJIA NASDAQ High: 11650 2290 Low: 10000 1855 Close: 11340 2210 KSS Kohl's Corporation BSX Boston Scientific PNRA Panera Bread Company EBAY Laslo Birinyi DJIA NASDAQ High: 12300 2350 Low: 9800 1850 Close: 12300 2350 L Liberty Media SUNW Sun Microsystems CD Cendant WDC Western Digital WM Frank Cappiello DJIA NASDAQ High: 11340 2575 Low: 9575 1755 Close 10750 2234 ACGL Arch Capital AIG Amer International AVY Avery Dennison BAX Baxter Beth Dater DJIA NASDAQ High: 12560.72 2346.96 Low: 7750.25 1564.64 Close: 11587.04 2151.38 ACDO Accredo Health Systems DOX Amdoc Limited AMGN Amgen Incorporated CCK Crown Alison Deans DJIA NASDAQ High: 11400 2100 Low: 9900 1900 Close: 10950 2050 TAPA Travelers SPLS Staples AFC Allmerica L Liberty Media MHK Mohawk Industries Harvey Eisen DJIA NASDAQ High: 12500 2825 Low: 8500 1750 Close: 11800 2475 GPX G.P. Strategies HLTH WebMD Corporation WTV Value Vision Media LEG Leggett & Mary Farrell DJIA NASDAQ High: 11500 2300 Low: 9800 1760 Close: 11200 2250 BAC Bank of America CSCO Cisco Systems INTC Intel Corporation KO Coca-Cola JPM Tom Gallagher DJIA NASDAQ High: 12000 2300 Low: 9500 1800 Close: 11111 2100 EDH5C 97 March '05 eurodollar call, strike 97 JYH5 March '05 yen future GCG5 Frank Gannon DJIA NASDAQ High: 11700 2400 Low: 9900 1750 Close: 11300 2250 PVN Providian Financial Group QLGC Qlogic Corporation XRX Xerox Corporation TWX Kim Goodwin DJIA NASDAQ High: 11130 2222 Low: 10005 1950 Close: 11130 2165 ESE Esco Technologies MTG MGIC Investment Corp. KMX CarMax TBI Tom Brown SNDX Lou Holland DJIA NASDAQ High: 12926 2369.58 Low: 9307 1481.09 Close: 11581 2172.25 KSS Kohls PFE Pfizer FHCC FirstHealth Group VIAB Viacom ACS Affiliated Computer Mike Holland DJIA NASDAQ High: 12345 2345 Low: 9111 1776 Close: 12321 2321 XOM ExxonMobil DIA Dow Jones Industrials ETF OIH Oil Service ETF XLB S&P John Kim DJIA NASDAQ High: 12000 2500 Low: 9500 1750 Close: 11500 2400 HEW Hewlett Packard SRA Serono WFHC Womens First HC CSCO Cisco SCH Charles Gretchen Lash DJIA NASDAQ High: 11650 2280 Low: 11650 1875 Close: 985 2250 FDO Family Dollar Stores LOW Lowe's Companies UVN Univision Communications FNM Barbara Marcin DJIA NASDAQ High: 12000 2370 Low: 9380 1600 Close: 11800 2170 CD Cendant AES AES Corporation EP El Paso HON Honeywell L Liberty Media FE Roger McNamee DJIA NASDAQ High: 11582.21 2428.98 Low: 10341.26 987.38 Close: 11375.39 2271 STX Seagate CSCO Cisco BOBJ Business Objects INTU Intuit FLEX Flextronics MOT Brian Rogers DJIA NASDAQ High: 12000 2300 Low: 9600 1600 Close: 11850 2200 BMY Bristol Meyers IFF International Flavors MMC Mash & McLennan NWL Newell Nick Sargen DJIA NASDAQ High: 12350 2600 Low: 9400 1600 Close: 11500 2300 GE General Electric MAS Masco CSC Computer Science Corp. VLO Valero CMCSK Liz Ann Sonders DJIA NASDAQ High: 12300 2500 Low: 9800 1850 Close: 11500 2300 HNI HON Industries CVH Coventry Health Care CTXS Citrix Systems ASPT Aspect Bob Stovall DJIA NASDAQ High: 11355.5 2305 Low: 9915.25 1865 Close: 10872.5 2195 BA Boeing JNJ Johnson & Johnson KRB MBNA MOT Motorola MRK Merck NG Nova Gold Marty Zweig DJIA NASDAQ High: 10875 Low: 8625 (Panelist has no Close: 9325 prediction) 1 year t-note 1.625 January '05 (50 weighting) Gold bullion future - 1 year (50 Rich Bernstein Company Banking Personal/ ML 1 ML officer or director Name Relationship Family (Yes/No) (Yes/No) (Yes/No) (Yes/No) ABT Yes No Yes No RTN Yes No Yes No XOM Yes No No No CAG Yes No Yes No Laszlo Birinyi - The panelist personally owns the following stocks: SUNW, WM Ed Brown - The panelist's firm owns all of these stocks on behalf of clients. Frank Cappiello - McCullough, Andrews & Cappiello owns these stocks in client Beth Dater - The panelist failed to provide the requested disclosure. Harvey Eisen - The panelist failed to provide the requested disclosure. Alison Deans - The panelist owns of the stocks recommended. Mary Farrell - Bank of America - UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries has - Cisco Systems 0 UBS Securities LLC makes a market in the securities and/or - Intel Corp - UBS Securities LLC makes a market in the securities and/or ADRs - Coca-Cola - UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries expect to receive or - JP Morgan Chase - UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries has acted as - Pfizer - UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries beneficially owned 1 or more - Proctor & Gamble -UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries has acted as - United Health Group - UBS AG, its affiliates or subsidiaries has acted as - Wal-Mart Stores - No Disclosures - ExxonMobil Corp - No Disclosures Tom Gallagher - I don't own any of these securities directly. I own UTStarcom Kim Goodwin - The panelist owns all of the stocks through holdings in State Frank Gannon - The panelist failed to provide the requested disclosure. Lou Holland - The panelist owns all of the stocks he recommended. Mike Holland - The Panelist owns ExxonMobil in his fund. John Kim - The Panelist owns all of the stocks the recommended. Gretchen Lash Barbara Marcin - The panelist owns all of these picks directly or through Roger McNamee - The panelist owns all of the stocks except Motorola. Nick Sargen - The stocks mentioned by the panelist are in portfolios held by Brian Rogers The panelist has a significant investment in the Price Equity Liz Ann Sonders - Schwab has received compensation from Ford and Prudential for Bob Stovall - Wood Asset Management clients and/or the panelist owns all 10 of Marty Zweig - The panelist does not own gold bullion but does own the 1 year -- posted by SteveT » SteveT - 1-2-04 We start 2004 with Sue Herera sitting in for Lou and she indicated Lou is expected to make a full recovery. Sue reviewed some of the major events of 2003 which I am sure you have already heard. She did spend some time on commodity prices rising in 03 saying Platinum bodes well for a continuing recovery in manufacturing. She finished speculating if the weak Dollar and higher oil prices would be worrisome for inflation down the road?Mike Holland says 03 was a great year after three bad ones. If you look back at what people were saying a year ago about the economy and markets, we did get to an over sold condition. Now is a pivotal time, will it be to a bear or upward with this new bull? Mike thinks it is more likely the bull will prevail in 04. The ISM numbers release Friday morning were strong, profit momentum is increasing, inflation is low. In this environment it is hard to imagine stocks doing poorly. Holland sees strength in China and India and they will be consuming more energy and are starting to import oil. For that reason he like Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Schlumberger (SLB). Liz ann Sonders thinks things still look terrific. She does not think there is too much optimism. She believe many individual investors are still skeptical. Some are worrying about inflation and rising rates. Sonders think 2004 could be a year where earnings acceleration could top stock price increases. She thinks economic growth and earnings are still under stated. We could end 04 with better valuations than we started with. Liz Ann is favorable on energy too and likes Pogo Producing (PPP). She also likes Ford (F), HON Industries (HNI), and Monsanto (MON). Frank Cappiello says the economy looks terrific and he is very bullish. He believes the FED will start raising rates by summer, then the elections come around. The market has a Bush victory priced in along with Republicans maintaining control of Congress. He says if the Dollar continues to weaken the FED is going to have to move quicker to preserve the integrity of the Dollar. He said a weak Dollar is a very bad thing. Frank recommends staying with this market but did say in his life he has never seen so much speculation in such a short period of time. There are 200 IPOs ready to go. Stocks Cappiello likes are Baxter International (BAX) and I-Shares of Japan (EWJ). Sue then introduced special guest Abby Joseph Cohen. Abby thinks 2004 will be less interesting than 2003. She expects profit growth and stocks to end higher, by years end the S&P 500 target is 1250 and the DOW at 11,800. Profit growth was rapid the second half of 03 and that should decelerate in 2004. She said the FED will be less friendly but it will take a long time for then to get "ugly". Abby expects 2004 GDP to be around 4% and profit growth in the low double digits. She went on to say the five and ten year bonds are now assuming the FED will begin tightening in May or June. That is already priced into the market. She don't think the increases will be dramatic since there are no signs of inflation. She mentioned a term called "snugging" could come into play. Perhaps this year or next we could see very small increases in short term rates to reflect what was already built into the bond market. Mike asked Abby for advice to new investors on how to handle volatile markets. She said it is good when investors are a little nervous, they think about what could go wrong. They also need to think about fundamentals. Over long periods of time what drives stock prices is the economy. The U.S. economy is extraordinarily competitive in the world. Our outlook is good, we have a strong banking system, and great productivity. She advises balance, diversification, and a true sense of risk tolerance. Liz Ann asked Abby to contrast Asia and Europe economies with the U.S. The U.S. has moved away from a competitive trade model where we try to produce everything as cheaply as China or India. We have moved to comparative trade model where we try to use our most precious resources of people and capital to produce high value added products and services. She believes out trade deficit will improve as the economies of Europe improve. Frank said commodity prices have gone off the charts and asked if Alan Greenspan will act sooner vs. later due to commodity prices. She doesn't think the FED will be overly responsive to rising commodity prices. One reason is rising commodity prices indicate demand is increasing. Also some of the increase is due to the weak Dollar, if you adjust for that the rise is not nearly so dramatic. Next weeks special guest will be Hersh Cohen manager Smith Barney Appreciation Fund. -- posted by SteveT « Previous 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 Next » Please follow the guidelines set forth in the Suite101 Posting Etiquette when adding to the discussion. |
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