WSW: Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street Summary & Discussion $treet
- SteveT
- SteveT
- Slick
- Chris3
- Slick
- ElizabethD_2
- SteveT
- Bill_Tippett
- SteveT
- SteveT
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» SteveT - Friday June 23, 2000
Lou’s opening comments dealt with Summer TimePanelist Frank Cappiello thinks we get no increase from the Fed next week but keep the upward bias. He thinks it would be better if they raised .25% and said that is it no more and shifted to neutral bias. Frank believes rates have gone to high now and worries about a weakening Dollar and the Fed would raise rates to support the Dollar. Likes AIG Insurance and LU.
Barbara Marcin Thinks safe sectors now are Tele com and energy because they are defensive in nature and selling at reasonable P/Es She feels rates are still going up and this will slow down the economy dramatically. Likes BEL and SBC.
Louis Holland thinks most stocks have had their bear market and are in a corrective mode especially many of the NASDAQ stocks. He think recession worries have beaten down financials and they are attractive now. Likes ONE AIG WFC MEL
NEWS FLASH Natalie Seltz (sp.?) is retiring. She is the Hostess that has seated guests for over 30 years. The role is retiring with her. On a personal note I always liked the idea of her role, thought it added a touch of elegance to the show.
Guest Richard Driehaus Chief Investment Officer Driehaus Capital Management said no one system works all the time. He likes to alternate between value and growth. (I guess the hard part is deciding when to do what.) He looks at fundamentals in particular growth of earnings and what the environment of the industry is. A momentum investors whose motto is buy high and sell higher. He sells when a stock disappoints or sees a better opportunity else where. He currently likes Energy stocks in the Natural Gas area. Two companies mentioned Hanover Compressor ticker HC and Power one ( couldn't find ticker). He spent a great deal of time on Power One in the Clean electricity arena and he feels a leader in the field. Also he revealed Power One is his largest position as of yesterday.
Frank asked why Natural Gas is good now. He sees a shortage before Winter due to many nuclear plants converting to Gas to generate electricity.
Barbara Asked if he sees energy as a strong ready to move sector? Yes was the answer.
Lou Holland asked if he used Price or Earnings as an indicator in his momentum decisions. He said both.
He closed by talking about his definition of risk. And how there is more risk by staying to conservative. Look at the direction in the long term he suggested. Forget about short term volatility if you have a long term horizon was the message. Another quip Time in the market makes you money not timing the market. Uncle Lou asked about his teen years and his coin collecting and what that taught him. He replied buy what the buyers are buying.
Next week the mid year review Panelists will include Louis Holland, Barbara Marcin, Brian Rogers, and Martin Zweig
-- posted by SteveT
» Slick - Richard Dreihaus
I thought it was interesting that Dreihaus is a self-described " momentum" investor ( with a great track record) and is a " bottoms up " investor. So, this guy is in the market on a daily basis, but yet had the forthrightness to say" it's TIME , not timing". Meaning , chose great companies and stay with them, and sell , if the fundamentals change. Interesting guy, for the fast and loose crowd of the new paradigm. Once again , Uncle Lou spanning the investment spectrum.Slick
-- posted by Slick
» ElizabethD_2 - Power One
I too appreciate the great summaries. The Symbol for Power One is PWER. I checked it out on DLJdirect and Thompsons Investors. They site many brokers giving it a "Strong Buy" rating; however I was disturbed to see that 19 Insiders were selling shares on 6/19/2000 and an additional 6 earlier in June.-- posted by ElizabethD_2
» SteveT - Thanks Elizabeth
For the ticker for Power One. I too thought it a bit unusual for a what I presume to be a small company to get such air time. If the guest has all the shares he wants it would not be a bad idea to let the world know how great it is. Then sit back and see what happens. This is not an accusation but an observation. Buyer beware.-- posted by SteveT
» Bill_Tippett - CAUTION!
I would be very careful with PWER! Richard Dreihaus reminded me too much of a used car salesman. I'm surprised Rukeyser let him get away with such a hype job! You can bet he will probably be selling as you buy on Monday!If you are interested in this area, take a look at American Power Conversion (APCC). Much much more reasonably valued than PWER:
PWER APCC
Revenue(TTM) 248M 1.37B
P/Eearnings 255 34
P/Sales 13 5.5
P/Book 15 7.7
-- posted by Bill_Tippett
» SteveT - Friday June 30, 2000
Tonight’s show is a review of the first half of the year. Lou’s opening comments dealt with the age old question. Is the glass half full or half empty?It was revealed 19 of the 22 panelists 99 year end portfolios are beating the DOW year to date.Louis Holland thinks we need a continuing good economy and earnings to keep the stock market positive.
Marty Zweig is neutral with a bullish bias and sees the market grinding higher. He is fearful of the FOMC over doing it, his comment was they usually do. Marty likes bonds and thinks what is good for bonds will also be good for stocks. No recession on Marty’s radar screen.
Brian Rogers likes some of the large Value stocks that have been beaten down and sees good things the rest of the year.
Barbara Marcin is watching the GDP and the FOMC. If the economy does not slow the FOMC will slow it down according to her. She is also reasonably up beat about the next six months.
Lou reviewed many of the major market indices noting the AMEX and Russell 2000 are up since New Years. Mention was made of Government data and commodities prices over the last 3 years.
Lou asked all panelists what of the numbers he reviewed would have the biggest impact on financial markets the rest of the year.
Lou Holland thought it was interest rates and liquidity of cash put in the system by the FED in preparation for Y2K.
According to Marty Zweig it is the price of oil.
Brian Rogers thinks it is earnings, noting some have been very good and some bad. He feels we will see some mild pressure on earnings and see more unhappy reports than happy earnings releases. Ultimately he thinks the FED will be successful in slowing our economy.
Barbara Marcin thinks interest rates are the biggest worry.
Mr. Rukeyser tallied the 4 panelists returns YTD. Lou Holland picked 9 stocks with an average return of 20% YTD. Marty Zweig put half his portfolio in 1 year treasuries and still did 17%. Brian Rogers picked 12 stocks and had 3 short positions for a 15% return. Barbara Marcin picked 8 stocks for a nice 14% gain.
In fairness Uncle Lou revealed Kim Goodwin’s picks made a late surge for a 19% return but they had already invited the panel for this show and Kim will be on July 28.
Next week a show about "Summer Travel" GUESTS: Jason Ader Hotel/Gaming Analyst Bear Stearns Candace Browning Airline Analyst Merrill Lynch Janice Meyer Restaurant Analyst Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette.
-- posted by SteveT
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