WSW: Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street Summary & Discussion $treet
- kevinwaite
- JeffChristy
- be6
- SteveT
- brandy5273
- SteveT
- David_Korn
- mdorsey
- SteveT
- KLR
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» kevinwaite - share cost of year end transcript
I would be very happy to split the cost of the year end transcript with anyone, it inlcudes the picks from all panelists. Thanks.Kevin_Waite@mindspring.com
-- posted by kevinwaite
» JeffChristy - Year end transcript
Where can I order the year end transcript? Could someone provide a website or a phone number.-- posted by JeffChristy
» be6 - Re: Year end transcript
In response to message posted by JeffChristy:U might start here. BobE
http://www.rukeyser.com/home/home.asp
-- posted by be6
» brandy5273 - Rukeyser's Back Tie Panelist Picks
I wrote down Tom Gallagher's portfolio picks; ex 10% in Verizon, and I wrote down his suggestions on various call options on 3/04 currency futures but does anyone know how to find the "ticker/symbol" for call options on futures? I went to a few sites dealing w/ futures and couldn't find Tom's...... I've done options before but not futures so sorry if this is an obvious/silly query - any assistance would be most appreciated!-- posted by brandy5273
» SteveT - 1-3-03
Lou opened tongue in cheek saying, “Should we call it a year?” It was the best first day for stocks in general in fifteen years and the best ever for NASDAQ. In the good news bad news category manufacturing seems to have picked up but Congress goes back to work next week. About Congress Lou made this comment concerning both sides of the aisle, “The economics of growth seems to be giving way day after day to the politics of envy.” Head winds for the market could be the U.S. having to fight two wars in the same year and continuing disruption of oil supplies from Venezuela.Frank Cappiello feels better about the market after this week. Saying we still have North Korea and Iraq in the way. The good news is mortgage rates hit a new low, a low spread between the ten-year treasury and junk bonds, and since 1939 we have had an up year in the stock market the year before a Presidential election every time. Cappiello expects the real Estate boom to continue but at a less feverish pace. Frank likes the energy sector with a pick of Devon Energy (DVN) and the medical area picking Zimmer Holdings (ZMH). He would take profits in gold and not buy any bonds.
New panelist Richard Bernstein, Merrill Lynch Chief US Strategist is cautious on the market. Saying it appears to be very speculative. He thinks we still have some excess valuation from the bubble. He explained by saying we still see low quality or risky stocks valued higher than the safe haven stocks. His final comment was the indices have more down side than up side. He does like the energy and defense sectors, picking Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Northrop Grumman (NOC). He would look for opportunity to short QQQ. Lou asked what it would take to turn him into a bull. Rich said a change in attitude of investors. Now they think equities are the only asset class to make money in.
Ed Brown is more sanguine, thinking this will be a much better year. He sees psychology improving and fundamental comparisons easier in the year ahead. His one wish for 2003 would be companies stop giving earnings guidance like Coca-Cola recently did. Ed likes Celestica (CLS) and Whole food market (WFMI).
Lou then introduced Abby Joseph Cohen Chief Market Strategist Goldman Sachs. Abby sometimes feels like a pincushion regarding all the criticism she has gotten of late. She continues her analyst work of looking at economic data, corporate data, and valuation. Her current forecast is as follows; no double dip recession, moderate profit growth, controlled inflation, and not much of a rise in interest rates. Cohen thinks the S&P 500 is under valued. Lou asked her why she missed so badly in her 2002 guess on the S&P. The Geopolitical events and wide spread corporate accounting fraud were the big factors. Abby expects GDP growth of 3% in 2003 with the caveat slow growth from our trading partners and business investment being the unknown that could affect the final numbers. Business investment is a biggie, if hiring picks up the economy could do even better. Cohen is not surprised by the Dollars recent decline, saying it was over priced. It is a double-edged sword, when the Dollar falls the Euro rises making it harder for European companies to do better. She is confident U.S. productivity will lead to long-term growth. Abby says the worst is over for manufacturing and it is time to buy cyclicals, a couple she mentioned as buys are Bank of America (BAC), Delta Airlines (DAL), and Viacom (VIAb). She thinks the most noticeable change for 2003 will be corporate accounting. Saying the $200 Billion in write offs are mostly for past sins and do not reflect future problems. We are looking at the cleanest accounting we have seen in the last ten years in her view.
Frank asked why the disconnect between the big bear market and the small short recession. Three things all working in harmony; the FED doing a wonderful job, companies reduced costs, consumers remained strong due to low interest rates and increase incomes. Rich asked if higher energy prices might create opportunities elsewhere. Goldman Sachs is recommending an over weighted position in energy. Abby went on to say it will affect airlines, and petro chemicals. If the higher energy prices last long term it could be bad for Nations that are high users like Japan and South Korea. She thinks energy prices will come back down once the Geopolitical situation calms down. Ed asked if we stay in a low inflation mode what are the implications for earnings growth and the value stocks vs. growth stocks debate. The inflationary late 60’s through early 80’s period was an anomaly. U.S. companies have learned to manage costs in a low inflation environment. The focus should be on companies that have unit volume growth and pricing flexibility. Look to insurance and a company like Waste management (WMI).
Lou asked Abby to explain her 2003 DOW forecast of 10,800. She thinks long-term profits can grow at about 7% and in a low inflation and low interest rate environment P/E’s are typically high. Lou finished asking if the next generation could rely on stocks. Long term the stock market will perform in line with the economy. That is why Productivity and Research and Development are so important. If you are bullish on U.S. workers and the economy then you have to be bullish on the stock market as well.
Next week Lou will have a special panel of experts talking about “What will Washington’s new lineup mean for your money” I am going to take that as he is not talking about a police lineup. Then again?
-- posted by SteveT
» David_Korn - futures
In response to message posted by brandy5273:Hi Brandy. If you are looking for information on single stock futures, I would start off with OneChicago.com. That is a site that was created to trade single stock futures and narrow-based stock indices by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc., the Chicago Board Options Exchange the and Chicago Board of Trade. Here is the link to take you there: .
This link shows you a list of single-stock futures that are trading:
http://www.onechicago.com/000000_misc/oc...
Trading single stock futures is risky, and is very new and I would excercise caution before attempting it. Good luck!
- David Korn
editor of http://www.begininvesting.com/
-- posted by David_Korn
» KLR - How wrong is Rukeyser?
In response to message posted by SteveT:How come nobody around here ever picks on good old Uncle Lou...one of those perma-bulls that Brinker yammers about? He's as slippery as the rest of them and likewise underperforms the market consistently....
How wrong is Rukeyser?
By Peter Brimelow, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:11 AM ET Jan. 6, 2003
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- The New Year may have opened with a bang. But skeptics are still sniping.
Jack Adamo was recently making the alarming point that only three of 65 "smartest players on Wall Street" polled by Business Week magazine thought the Dow would be lower at the end of 2003 than it is now. He was particularly irritated by the widespread argument that the market couldn't go down for a fourth year in a row. (See my Jan. 2 column).
Adamo, who Mark Hulbert says has a solid record, felt so strongly that he actually bit the Louis Rukeyser who has fed the investment letter industry over the years -- Rukeyser's television shows were among the earliest to recognize the value of investment letters (masked by his characteristic jeering) and appearances on them have been the making of many editor's fortunes.
Nevertheless, chomped Adamo:
"Note that of the 22 'experts' that were polled on Rukeyser's Wall Street Week about their predictions for the Dow in 2002, not one foresaw how low the Dow would drop. None was even close. Likewise, in 2001 every single one overestimated that market's performance."
Ow -- that hurt! Rukeyser has a great reputation for bullishness and his first show this year featured Abby Joseph Cohen...'nuff said. His current January commentary on his Web site is indeed bullish in a general sort of way, apparently for the rather unusual reason that Marx was wrong about capitalism. Hmm.
But Rukeyser also has two investment letters. Hulbert's monitoring of them through the Hulbert Financial Digest over the past several years reveals a slightly different story.
Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street has underperformed the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000 since 1996, 4.5 percent annualized vs. 7.2 percent annualized. Interestingly, however, it lost relatively less since the market started to break -- down 18.4 percent in the past three years, vs. 28.5 percent for the Wilshire.
Louis Rukeyser's Mutual Funds has gained 5.7 percent over same period, vs. the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000's 7.2 percent. But since the market began to break three years ago, the mutual fund letter is down only 20.2 percent in total, vs. 28.5 percent for the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000.
So, despite his bullish reputation, Rukeyser has not capitalized particularly on the 1990s upswing. While Hulbert has been following him, he has never outpaced the market.
But Rukeyser's letters have proved surprisingly effective on the defensive. Moreover, the Wall Street letter, which has no unique system but simply lists stocks recommended by the money managers it interviews, nevertheless manages to end up with stocks that are significantly less volatile, i.e. risky, than the market as a whole.
May not fit with Rukeyser's flamboyant image -- but it takes cunning to survive in television all those years.
There's a problem in assessing Rukeyser's record. Neither letter specifies model portfolios, so the Hulbert system ruthlessly constructs them by equal-weighting each recommendation on the buy lists. Although Rukeyser talks about the overall market, the portfolios are assumed to be fully invested all times, because no specific instructions are given to the contrary. Letters that tailor themselves more precisely to the Hulbert criteria -- which are, after all, a proxy for what investors need -- tend to get better results from their successes.
Moreover, Rukeyser's mutual funds recommendations are grouped in four categories. So Hulbert constructs four mutual fund portfolios. The result cited above is an average, but there's considerable variation.
The Specialty fund portfolio actually beat the market while Hulbert was monitoring it. But the Growth fund portfolio grew (ahem!) negatively, losing 10.1 percent vs. the Wilshire's 61.3 percent gain.
-- posted by KLR
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