WSW: Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street Summary & Discussion $treet
- SteveT
- KLR
- SteveT
- KLR
- SteveT
- Sinewave
- SteveT
- SteveT
- JeffChristy
- SteveT
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» SteveT - Re: Re: 11-1-02
In response to message posted by Kirk:Kirk, I too enjoy when Jean-Marie is a guest. Lou and him seem to have some sort of rapport. When he talked about buying in down markets & selling in rising I did think about the techniques you have taught me to profit from. Thanks!
-- posted by SteveT
» KLR - Everybody Off To Las Vegas
In response to message posted by SteveT:I guess I'll just have to go to Vegas again as part of my continuing investment education.
Uncle Lou's got quite a line-up of talking heads. I notice; however, no mention of Brinker.
I will have to pay a little extra, but I will get my picture taken with Lou, maybe even an autograph.
How a Weekend in Las Vegas Could Make 2003 Your Best Investment Year Ever!
Come to The Eleventh Annual Louis Rukeyser Investment Conference (and get a free subscription to Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street, too)!
Dear Fellow Investor,
Please consider this your personal invitation to join me in Las Vegas next February 22 and 23 for a can’t-miss investment event: The Eleventh Annual Louis Rukeyser Investment Conference. I’ve assembled an all-star team of 21 top Wall Street experts who will gather for two full days with just one purpose: to make you a wealthier investor.
Join me as I coax money-making advice from Wall Street’s whizzes - and give you my own view of where the top opportunities lie for your money in 2003. I’m sure you will recognize many of these Wall Street greats by name. Now you’ll have a rare opportunity to see and hear them in person.
You'll hear directly from such industry stars as Abby Cohen, arguably the most influential stock-market strategist in Wall Street… Frank Cappiello, who has been appearing on my television program since the very first show in 1970… Bill Gross, widely regarded as the most influential bond investor in the world… Michael Holland, President of Holland & Co., and a panelist on my show for the past decade… Bill Miller, whose Legg Mason Value Trust is the only mutual fund to outperform the S&P 500 in each of the past 11 years… Mario Gabelli, a Morningstar U.S. stock-fund "manager of the year" winner… and Mary Farrell, UBS PaineWebber's crack market strategist.
Bob Brinker, publisher of Marketimer Newsletter, will be performing in the Circus Circus Lounge during breaks.
By coming to this year’s event, you also receive a very special bonus – a FREE three-month subscription to Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street, giving you my personal investment outlook; my one-on-one interviews with Wall Street’s best investment minds; and a wealth of other new opportunities to increase your net worth.
With headlines dominated by terrorism, recession and scandals, these are dispiriting times for investors. But it’s important to remember that the strongest stock-market rallies start when conditions are bleakest. It’s in tough times like these that previous generations of investors have planted the seeds that reaped absolute fortunes. The advice you’ll hear in Las Vegas could lay the foundation for accumulating serious, lasting wealth.
Reserve Your Space Now for ONLY $75! Click here to register.
By the way, after my personal presentation on Sunday, February 23, I'll host an evening cocktail reception where you and I can meet in person and have a picture taken. Attendance is limited at that special event, but I'd love it if you could join us.
No serious investor can afford to miss the biggest and most valuable all-star money event of the year! I recommend this conference to you with all my heart, and I do hope you’ll be able to join us for a very special, and wonderfully memorable, weekend in Las Vegas.
With the bullish best wishes of
/s/ Uncle Lou
-- posted by KLR
» KLR - Re: Re: Everybody Off To Las Vegas
In response to message posted by SteveT:Nothing worthwile is reasonably priced Steve. Uncle Lou ain't no fool. 75 bucks gets you in the door.
In addition to the 2-day Conference, we invite you to make reservations for the following:
Friday Workshop Tickets
I wish to reserve place(s) ($249 each) for the special Friday workshop session. (Attendance strictly limited.)
Sunday Reception Reservations
I wish to reserve place(s) ($125 each) for the Sunday evening cocktail reception, where I can meet Lou personally. (Attendance strictly limited.)
No pay...No Picture!! Just like the Republican Convention.
https://www.rukeyseronline.com/appl_secure/conference2/
-- posted by KLR
» SteveT - 11-8-02
Lou opened talking about the short attention span Wall Street traders (isn't it ironic they are called traders) had this week. He even went so far as to suggest they turn out the lights and take a much needed nap (or did he say slap). Traders first preoccupation this week was the elections, which proved most political analysts are no more reliable than financial analysts. The second item on trader's minds this week was the rate cut by the FED. Lou pointed out how in the past Alan Greenspan has tried to prepare the markets for a rate move, this week he surprised them by cutting rates .5%. The third thing on trader's minds was the potential war with Iraq. Lou concluded the market did really begin the cyclical healing process in July. The financial patient is still along way from vigorous, and likely to remain that way until it stops being disappointed with corporate earnings. Or until it's short attention span gets diverted to something else. Lou also made brief mention of SEC resignations by Harvey Pitt and Chief accountant Robert Herdman.Tom Gallagher does expect the major legislative change in 2003 to be some form of tax cut. He also anticipates higher defense spending hence the run up in some of those stocks, but he thinks the market may have gotten ahead of itself in the asbestos tainted stocks that ran up late this week. Tom expects the new republican controlled congress to accelerate tax cuts but doubts they have the 60 votes needed to make the last round of tax cuts permanent with the exception of the estate tax. Gallagher speculated dividend tax treatment maybe reduced next year but doubts it will be eliminated until a second Bush term. He believes the President will use it as an issue in the 2004 campaign as part of a sweeping tax reform platform. Tom thinks defense, drug, and energy stocks will benefit from the election results but Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will not be helped.
Harvey Eisen brought up the appearance of Sir John Templeton a few weeks ago and how he commented on buying stocks at the maximum point of pessimism. Harvey thinks we may have reached that point. Adding we may not see a run away bull market but over the long term you can make money in stocks. Eisen likes Reader's Digest (RDA) and IVAX (IVX). He would sell Government bonds.
John Kim has been cautious pointing out the many false bottoms since early 2000 after 10 percent rallies. John thinks this bottom will hold but agrees with Lou about being less vigorous and sees continued volatility. Stocks Kim likes are Education Management (EDMC) and People's Bank (PBCT). He would sell Tech and Telecom due to over valuation.
Lou next introduced Barton Biggs Chief Global Strategists Morgan Stanley. Lou said Barton is an unusually talented writer and thinks for himself. Lou got right to work asking how the election and FED cut changed his outlook for the economy and markets. It was a definite positive, the market wanted what it got and the economy needed what it got. Lou was puzzled why the market reaction was not stronger and longer lasting. Biggs thinks the market was scared by the .5% rate cut. Lou said Barton was quoted last month recommending tech stocks like CSCO, EMC, and INTC and wondered if that is still his view. Yes it is, he is expecting a rally in those types of stocks that will go higher and last long than the consensus belief. Biggs sees the S&P 500 in the 1000-1100 range early next year. Even though he thinks we are in a bear market in the next 3 or 4 months some big news will fuel a rally. He also believes the October lows will be the bear market lows and not be breached. He is recommending an over weighted position in stocks with favored sectors U.S. Pharmaceuticals, Tech, Brokers, Investment Banks, and Insurance, an industry that still has pricing power. Biggs shies away from specific stock picks due to regulations and Lou asked if in the zealous pursuit of evil we maybe suppressing information that otherwise might be available. He thinks we are heading that way but not there yet. Biggs would sell defensive stocks that held up well in the decline citing consumer products and housing thinking they will not get as big a bounce in the expected rally.
Tom asked about the risks of deflation. Acknowledging it is a risk for the first time in his lifetime but thinks it unlikely in the U.S. Harvey wanted to know what could go wrong and turn him more bearish. A double dip recession but he does not think that will happen after this rate cut and more refinancing, the consumer should be fine. John asked how investors should position portfolios with war looming. Biggs thinks if it comes to that it maybe bearish short term due to increased oil prices. He thinks we will win very quickly and oil will drop to $18-$20 and after that more stability in the Mid East should be very bullish.
Barton is not a gold bug and would not hold even 5% acknowledging it does have some potential in an uncertain world. Biggs thinks the Dollar will see another leg down due to the FED cutting and ECB not. He believes this will lead to increased foreign sales of U.S. goods and be bullish for US stocks. Lou asked what could go right and make him even more bullish. A significant decline in oil prices would be a big plus for world economies and a regime change in Iraq.
Next week special guest Ron Muhlenkamp portfolio manager of the Muhlenkamp Fund.
-- posted by SteveT
» SteveT - 11-15-02
11-15-02Lou said we can all rest assured now that one financial conflict of interest has been corrected. “Miss Cleo” will be crediting the accounts of former customer $.5 Billion and pay a fine of $5 Million. Lou was amazed that late night TV viewers could be as gullible as Internet investors. One worry on the horizon, a viewer e-mailed Lou wondering where stock analysts will seek inspiration now. Rukeyser thought surely someone out there still sells snake oil. Lou pointed out just when it seems no one was in the mood to trust anyone again in the business of selling investing advice peeped out from behind the Wizard’s curtain. This week the DOW was up for the 6th week in a row, a feat not seen since the Spring of 1999.
Ralph Acampora thinks we are going through part of the bottoming process. He is not looking short-term, his view is the DOW will be above 10,000 a year from today. Ralph also thinks the NASDAQ will come back and is encouraged that Large-Cap growth is outperforming since June of this year. Acampora likes Amazon (AMZN), Dell computer (DELL) and Deere & Company (DE). He would sell stocks in the defense industry thinking the stock price has already built in war with Iraq. These would include Northrop Grumman (NOC) and Lockheed Martin (LMT).
Barbara Marcin said fundamentals are still alternating. This week we saw good economic reports in unemployment, retail sales, and confidence, but bad news in Industrial production. The recovery remains weak due to limited capital spending. Marcin thinks that will pick up in a couple months. She is encouraged that the market seems to be overlooking bad news. Stocks Barbara likes are Cendant (CD), Duke energy (DUK), Verizon (VZ), and Texas Utilities (WTXUN.OB)[not sure if this is the one, if anyone can confirm or supply the correct one please do]. Marcin would sell defense and airlines stocks.
Ed Brown is positive on the market. He has a high level of confidence on two things, we have seen the worst and 2003 will be better than 2002. Ed is encouraged that companies are very cost conscious and that 2003 earnings comparisons will be very easy. Brown likes that many stocks are up 20%-30% since the end of the third quarter. Saying it is getting easier to find growth at reasonable prices lately. A couple stocks Ed likes are Pfizer (PFE) and Cisco (CSCO).
Lou then introduced Ron Muhlenkamp portfolio manager of the Muhlenkamp Fund. Ron thinks economically things look similar to 1991. We are coming off a recession at about half speed. Psychological aspects are similar too. Saying just when you think the news can’t get any worse it does. Part of his style is to shy away from fad stocks. That probably hurt him in the go-go 90’s but has saved him the past few years. He thinks the broad market may not do well or even some sectors but good stock picking will make money in the future. His favorite sector now is homebuilders, thinking people will shift from buying anything like they did in the late 90’s to putting more money in their houses. A couple picks, Beazer Homes (BZH) and Cendant (CD). Currently Muhlenkamp prefers stocks to bonds because “The game is over in treasuries”. The spread between treasuries and just about everything is very wide. Ron thinks consumers will still spend but shift to the things they really want. Some of them being motor homes, ATVs, snowmobiles, and motorcycles. He does own Harley-Davidson (HDI) but bought it at lower prices and would not buy it now. He would buy Winnebago (WGO) and Polaris (PII).
Ralph asked if he could find any tech stocks that are good values now. Not really, most of them are capital good companies. While they maybe superb technologies and great companies for many the stock prices were over done. Capital good companies tend to over exaggerate market moves on the way up and lag coming back. Or they are stronger longer and weak longer. They are going to need corporate managements to start buying and right now they are more nervous than the public. Barbara asked about Tyco and what it will need to see the stock price rebound in the next 12 months. Time, people tend to get fearful on bad news and that can last 6-9 months. Ron is encouraged that in the last 4 months we have not seen and new names associated with corporate malfeasance. He thinks once we get past the audit statements early next year this will help to relieve those fears. He expects to see pretty clean books. Ed asked if he sees capital spending picking up anytime soon. Not until capacity utilization picks up. Ron advised, watch the consumer, they will lead the way.
Lou then got in to a brief but very useful discussion on how in part to fundamentally examine a company. Lou brought up how Ron emphasis ROE or Return On Equity. Ron defined quickly a few terms. ROE= Earnings/Book Value. Book Value= Difference between assets and debt. {For more details on these terms. http://www.investorwords.com/cgi-bin/let... } Since World War II ROE has been on average 14%. Ron uses that as a gauge to look for above average ROE. Muhlenkamp says today in a 2% inflation and bond yield of 5%-6% environment he looks for a P/E below the ROE. This is in part how he finds above average companies at below average prices. Ron is cautious about the economy but some what optimistic about the market. Saying as always some stocks are cheap, some fairly valued and some over valued. It is a stock pickers market. He advised have patience sometimes it pays off.
Next week special guest Bob Smith Manager T. Rowe Price Growth fund.
-- posted by SteveT
» JeffChristy - Re: 11-15-02
In response to message posted by SteveT:Steve
I had the same problem trying to find Texas Utilities that you did. I even did a yahoo lookup on the word "Texas". After reading your post I decided to do a google search on "Texas Utilities". The result was TXU. Here is a profile from yahoo.
Yahoo / Market Guide - TXU Corporation
Address:http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/txu.html
Here is the company website.
TXU United States
:http://www.txu.com/us/default.asp
-- posted by JeffChristy
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