WSW: Louis Rukeyser's Wall Street Summary & Discussion $treet
- JeffChristy
- SteveT
- mitelo
- stoney92
- SteveT
- JeffChristy
- RicosCafe
- SteveT
- Makena
- Kirk
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» JeffChristy - Re: Re: Re: 7-12-02
In response to message posted by Kirk:Kirk
It looks like Nygren bought EDS in 1998 in the $30's.
The secret of success for Oakmark's Bill Nygren - May 30, 2000
:http://money.cnn.com/2000/05/30/mutualfu...
EDS took a big hit recently. I think it may have been a concern over a large contract with Worldcom. Worldcom probably will declare bankruptcy but it will definitely be reorganized and continue to operate because the internet is highly dependant on it. EDS may be a good stock to look at now.
-- posted by JeffChristy
» SteveT - 7-19-02
The summary this week will not be as complete as I would like it to be. My local PBS station had some reception problems so some of the show did not broadcast clear enough to understand. Please feel free to fill in gaps.Lou's opening remarks centered on a couple questions anyone that has made a road trip with children has heard. Are we having fun yet? Followed by. Are we there yet? While I did not catch everything Lou said, I think it safe to say nobody can say for sure exactly when the gloom will end. When we see more people talking about how it will never end and hear it reported in the press often that must be a sign we are getting close.
Frank Gannon received congratulation to his wife and him on the birth of their first child. Frank said the market emotions are low now but he sees earnings improvement the second half of this year. He is focusing on stocks that will benefit as the economy turns upward such as United Parcel Service (UPS). Gannon is trimming positions in HMO stocks.
Mary Farrell is encouraged based on fundamentals. Mary thinks many investors are waiting to see improved earnings, which she thinks will begin in the third quarter of this year. Farrell thinks trust is the single biggest issue facing the markets now. Mary is taking a long-term view and thinks many stocks are buys now. They include Viacom (VIA), 3M (MMM), and Intel (INTC).
Lou Holland thinks the crisis in confidence will pass. He does not believe the economy will turn as quickly as many people think it will. Holland does not see a double dip recession but a slow recovery. Stocks Lou likes are American International Group (AIG), Boeing (BA), and Intel (INTC).
Lou then introduced Susan Byrne CEO Westwood Management. Susan thinks the bear market will end when it seems it will never end. Byrne tries to pick stocks that won't go down. She does this by buying stocks when cheap and looking at free cash flow. Stocks she owns and recommends buying now all have cut costs, have strong cash flow, and share their cash with investors by paying dividends. Examples would be General Motors (GM), Sears (S), Du Pont (DD), and Chevron Texaco (CVX). Not all her picks need to pay dividends, in that case she looks for very high return on capital as a guide.
Frank asked how the declining Dollar would affect multinational companies. Susan thinks the Dollar is getting back to where it should be and it will benefit many multinationals such as Du Pont, Alcoa, Pfizer, and Merck. Mary asked if she thought small and mid cap stocks will continue to out perform. Byrne said it comes down to valuation and smaller companies in general are still not over valued, if you hold them now hang on to them. Lou asked advice for those near capitulation. Look at your time horizon, if you have 10-20 years have faith in quality companies. Pick good managements and look at balance sheets. Lastly don't to closely at the markets day to day.
Our host finished by asking Byrne for an economic forecast and how important it is to her. She expects GDP of 3% or so for the next six quarters. Corporate profits should be surprisingly healthy while inflation remains low. Susan thinks the market is 20% undervalued.
Next week special guest Tom McManus chief investment strategist Banc of America Securities.
-- posted by SteveT
» JeffChristy - Re: Re: Rukeyser 7/12/02
In response to message posted by SteveT:Steve
I got my mid year transcript today. It was from Maryland public television and covered the show that Marshall Loeb did on 21 June. It does have the results for the panelist's through 6/28/02. Only three were making money as of that date. Tom Gallagher was up 23.55% mainly because he had 30% in the Euro$ futures March 03 - 95.5 strike. It was up 148.59%..Only one of his six stock picks were up. Gillette +2.38%. Harvey Eisen was up 12.82%. His biggest winners were varsity brands up 102.27% and whitman education group up 29.13%. Bob Stoval was third up 2.03%. Barbara Marcin was at the bottom down 42.75%. There was no mention of Lou Rukeyser in the entire document.
-- posted by JeffChristy
» RicosCafe - Re: 7-12-02
Ras:Nygren appears from time to time in Outstanding Investor Digest. This link is to a Dec 2000 article http://www.oid.com/public/html/excerpts/...
-- posted by RicosCafe
» SteveT - 7/26 Preview?
Tom McManus is scheduled to appear this week. I would expect a bullish stance. He has increased his earnings estimates of the S&P 500 this year. He has also raised his equity allocation twice since June 10th. He predicts the S&P 500 at 1000 in 12 months.http://www.bofasecurities.com/featuredre...
-- posted by SteveT
» Makena - Re: 7/26 Preview?
In response to message posted by SteveT:He performed as you predicted. He is a sell side guy, what else could he say? Put it another way: could you imagine any conceivable market condition or economic situation when his stance would be different?
Kind of like bringing on a real estate broker in any market and asking if this is a good time to buy. Guess what? NOW is ALWAYS the perfect time.
-- posted by Makena
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