Market Timing: Should You Attempt It?
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- Will_L
- JenL_2
- Kirk
- Rande
- Rande
- warren205
- Kirk
- Marty_H
- michael_h
- Marty_H
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» Will_L - Mark
I'm sure you are right, seems Janus has had to close a lot of funds--have no idea how big 20 is but I'm sure it is huge yet still has quite a performance record--and I'm sure Marsico will do very well. A 20 stock fund is more volatile certainly but long term its plenty I think. It makes more sense to me to concentrate in the "very best" within a sector than have the top 10 in each sector. -Thanks for the Info-- posted by Will_L
» Rande - AIM becomes the latest mutual fund family to impose restrictions
AIM becomes the latest mutual fund family to impose restrictions to discourage market timers. Vanguard has long been in the, er, vanguard on this one. I say YES to anything that protects long-term shareholders from the increased expense and overhead of having to put up with the ill-advised market timers who can't seem to otherwise control themselves.-- posted by Rande
» warren205 - FREE STOCK MARKET TIMING CHARTS
Free Stock Market Timing Charts with buy and sell signals for mutual funds, sector funds, NASDAQ, DOW and S&P indices:http://markettiming.hypermart.net/
-- posted by warren205
» Kirk - Shart Attack?
I appreciate the hits, but I have to admit that the above post in this topic is like the heating oil futures salesman advertising on Financial talk shows where they teach people to beware of shark attacks.I guess he has a timing letter that will prove the article I wrote and the great people quotes as all wrong! LOL!
-- posted by Kirk
» Marty_H - Free Proprietary Market Timing Model
I use a very secret, guaranteed 100% accurate market timing model that I am making available to you FREE for the first time!This model has been backtested over years of data and never missed a day!
When I started using this system, all I had was a wooden nickel to make my first trade. Now, forty years later, I have decided to give this gift to the rest of the world. It is the least I could do.
This model has two components: the "mainstream" market indicator and the "contrarian" market indicator.
Each morning I flip a coin. I note the result-heads: mainstream is bullish, contrarian bearish. Tails: visa-versa. Today, for example, was a heads-the coin didn't roll, or spin, or anything-it just landed flat and stayed there. I knew it was going to be a good day! I make a mental note of the result and go trade!
Of course, anybody can do the previous part-now it's time to manipulate-uh, I mean interpret the data. At the end of the trading day-where I typically double my money-I write down the indicator I was using-mainstream or contrarian.
Anyway, I could post the charts like all of those impostors do to show my performance, but I won't. Just trust me when I say that Bill gates isn't really the richest man on the planet.
Oh, and one last thing-when the coin lands on edge-that means a FLAT market. This system is that good!
-- posted by Marty_H
» michael_h - Buy and Hold
I am a fan of neither "buy and hold' nor market timing. Both are fraught with risks. I would be interested in knowing how many of the people on this forum who are so in favor of buy-and-hold and anti-market timng were investing before the curent bull market began (circa 1982)? Read the following from Mark Hulbert:"Latter-day converts to the buy-and-hold strategy assure me that they won’t be foolish and throw in the towel in a bear market. But I don’t believe them. The only investors who could persuade me otherwise are those who were fully invested in late 1974, at the bottom of the last severe bear market. And there are precious few of them. All the other buy-and-holders either aren’t telling the truth or are too young to have anything more than hope about how they will behave in the next bear market."
In addition:
"At the top of every bull market, everybody talks about buy-and-hold," Hulbert said. "At the bottom of a bear market, you can’t find anybody talking about buy-and-hold." At investment conferences in 1980, some people seriously thought the price of gold (then flirting with its all-time highs of over $800 an ounce) was on its way to $4,000. (Gold subsequently sank to less than $300.) And at those 1980 investment conferences, nobody was talking about buying and holding stocks. Back then, that was regarded as a fool’s
game.
Keep in mind that the investoes who bought stocks in the late 1960's and held on through the bear markets of the late 60's and 1973-1974, did not recover their investment until the early stages of the bull market of the 1980's (more than 10 years!). Of course, nothing that I've said proves that a given market timer would have done better; rather, my purpose was to prove that the smugness of buy-and-holders is unwarranted. They are exposed to the risk of catastrophic loss should the fairy tale market of the last 18 years regress to the mean. There is no reason we cannot have a repeat of the 1973-1974 bear market. If we have anything close to it, confirmed buy-and-holders will be pulling their money out of stocks in unprecedented numbers.
-- posted by michael_h
» Marty_H - Michael-
I guess I am one of the uncomfirmed "Buy and Holders." I was in elementary school for the bear market of 73-74, so my investing opportunities were limited to milk money.One of the many good things about this board is the support it has offered over time during market downturns. WAGS stands for "We Ain't Gonna Sell", and it has been a good mantra.
Finally, remember that 1973-74 was a uniquely awful time in the Twentieth Century. America looked like a fading power, torn from within, at the mercy of OPEC, losing its manufacturing base. The future looked bleak, and it certainly was reflected in the stock market.
Comparing now to 1973-4 is like comparing a spring shower to "The Perfect Storm".
Marty
-- posted by Marty_H
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