GGR: GeoGlobal Resources Inc [was GEOG was BOWG] (2000 + )

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ud?s=GGR

Top 756. Jan 6, 2006 7:06 AM

» Kirk - Jefferies & Co Downgrades at

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07:56 GGR Geoglobal Resources initiated with an Underperform at Jefferies; $7.00 tgt (14.02 )

Jefferies is initiating GGR with an Underperform and a $7.00 tgt saying they are negative due to the premium valuation which they believe isn't justified by the asset base.

Art Hogan's Call of the Day: GeoGlobal Resources (GGR - Underperform):

We are initiating coverage with an Underperform rating and a $7.00 price target. We are negative due to the premium valuation which we believe isn't justified by the asset base.

Key Points:

1) GeoGlobal's onshore asset portfolio consists of small, (5-14%) non-operated interests in exploratory blocks in India. We believe that these blocks are certainly prospective for hydrocarbons, but that the likelihood of large discoveries is quite low.

2) GeoGlobal Holds A 5% Interest In A Discovery That The Operator Says Contains 20 Tcf Of Natural Gas. Even if we assume the discovery contains 20 Tcf, this only translates into a PV of approximately $4.00 per share due to low gas prices in India, long reserve life, and GGR's small net revenue interest.

3) GeoGlobal currently trades at a 182% premium to the potential value of announced discoveries. We believe that there is a lot of potential in the Company's properties, but there are currently no reserves booked, no production, and no cash flow. Our $7 price target is based on a 40% premium.

[ Kirk's Editor Comment:
I sold some shares at $13.42 on 12/29/05 so this downgrade could give a nice correction for a potential repurchase. See "Kirk's Newsletter" for more information.]

-- posted by Kirk

Top 757. Jan 6, 2006 7:23 AM

» Kirk - Re: Jefferies & Co Downgrades at

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URL for GGR Charts: http://6URL.com/GGRCHARTS

In response to Jefferies & Co Downgrades at posted by Kirk:

I sold some shares at $13.42 on 12/29/05 so this downgrade could give a nice correction for a potential repurchase.

This is what I emailed my newsletter readers on 12/29/05:

Did you start 2005 off thinking this little stock would gain 1286% this year? I sure had high expectations, but this is well above my targets!
Brent Peters, Director and part of the group that put together Suite101 then GeoGlobal, just sold another 10,000 of his shares. See FORM 4 . After this sale, he has 34,067 shares left. I'm sure he has stock options and other ways to profit from this, but when THE MAJOR INSIDER who put this together both times feels it is a good price to sell shares, I LISTEN!
You can see from this http://biz.yahoo.com/t/78/4834.html that Brent Peters has been taking profits all the way up just as I have been doing.
I took more GGR profits in my personal account to get me down to the same dollar value in the stock as I had at my last profit taking at $12.00. I'm basically limiting my share exposure to about X% of my total PERSONAL investment portfolio as I take profits as the stock goes higher.
I sold shares in my IRA so I can buy them back should there be any major sell-off in 2006. My belief is many energy mutual funds will want to look good by holding one of the best energy stocks on the AMEX exchange so they will buy and "paint the tape" for a high close in 2005. There could be significant selling in early 2006 as many want to delay taxable sells a year. THAT would be the time to buy back shares with IRA funds... I know I've got a big tax bill for 2005 so I don't want to sell any more taxable shares this year. This is why I try to have stocks I like in both taxable and tax deferred accounts.

For 2005, "Kirk's Newsletter Portfolio" was Up 13.2% vs. QQQQ up 1.2% vs. DJIA down 0.6% vs. S&P500 Up 4.8%

As of 12/31/05 the Total Return for "Kirk's Newsletter Portfolio" since 12/31/98 is Up 197% while the S&P500 only up 12%!!! & NASDAQ only up 1%!!! (my portfolio beta is roughly equal to that of QQQQ.)

What should be quite clear is a “buy and forget” market strategy using the DOW, S&P500 or NASDAQ would have under performed holding money funds over the past seven years while my newsletter portfolio nearly tripled every dollar invested

-- posted by Kirk

Top 758. Jan 6, 2006 11:35 AM

» Kirk - DGH okays Jubilant transfer of 10% stake to affiliate in KG-OSN-

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DGH okays Jubilant transfer of 10% stake to affiliate in KG-OSN-2001/3

From indianpetro.com

Jan. 5: The Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH) has okayed Jubilant Enpro's transfer of its entire 10% participating interest in the offshore block KG-OSN-2001/3 to the affiliate Jubilant offshore Drilling Pvt Ltd (JODPL). The company has already executed the deeds of assignment and assumption for the transfer. JODPL will assume all rights, interests and obligations of Jubilant Enpro after a requisite amendment is made in the production sharing contract (PSC) for the block. As per the new arrangement, assignment of various partners in the block will be: Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation (GSPC) 80%, GeoGlobal Resources 10% and JODPL 10%. As an aside, Jubilant Enpro Ltd has also changed its cognomen to Jubilant Enpro Pvt Ltd after becoming a private concern.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 759. Jan 6, 2006 12:11 PM

» Kirk - GeoGlobal Shares Plunge on Bearish Note

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GeoGlobal Shares Plunge on Bearish Note
Friday January 6, 12:46 pm ET

GeoGlobal Resources Shares Drop 28.3 Percent After Analyst Says Assets Don't Justify Stock Price

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of GeoGlobal Resources Inc. plummeted Friday after an analyst said the oil and gas company's assets don't justify the price of its stock -- which made a spectacular run in 2005, soaring from a penny stock to close to $15.

Canada-based GeoGlobal's resources are focused primarily on the Indian subcontinent, where the company has both oil and natural gas prospects.

According to Jefferies & Co. analyst Leo P. Mariani, GeoGlobal has had limited success in its onshore properties, and the likelihood of large discoveries is low. Offshore, the company discovered India's largest gas reservoir, but to date, only one well has been drilled. Meanwhile, low gas prices in India, long reserve life and the company's 5 percent net revenue interest limit it in the near term.

"We believe that there is a lot of potential in the Company's properties, but there are currently no reserves booked, no production, and no cash flow," the analyst wrote in a note to clients.

Mariani initiated coverage of the company with an "Underperform" rating and $7 price target.

GeoGlobal shares plunged $3.97, or 28.3 percent, to $10.05 in midday trading on the American Stock Exchange. The stock traded at a low of 77 cents a year ago and climbed to a recent 52-week high of $14.92.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 760. Jan 8, 2006 6:04 AM

» Kirk - Jefferies GGR Report -- Review (Part 1)

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In response to Jefferies & Co Downgrades at posted by Kirk:

Jefferies GGR Report -- Review (Part 1)
by: OracleAtDelphi 01/07/06 07:25 pm
Msg: 16313 of 16397

After a couple of hours of studying I finally made through the Jefferies & Co initiating coverage report on GeoGlobal.

For me it is helpful to read a single coherent report that places all of the company's operational milestones and projects in perspective, as opposed to getting this information piecemeal from all GGR's several news releases.

There was not much new information, but the report is the best single summary of GGR's assets, operational target date milestones, and likely drilling schedule. I strongly encourage the company to update their Corporate Profile (last updated May 2005 at http://www.geoglobal.com/20050510.Corpor... to include some of this material as a reference for investors.

I personally agree with others who have posted on this forum that the Jefferies Report provides very conservative current and future GGR share price target values.

Here are some interesting observations that I have made from the report that I'd like to share with you:

1) "We believe that there is a lot of potential in the Company's properties, but there are currently no reserves booked, no production and no cash flow." (Sounds like what our MB Bashers have been saying verbatim)

2) "Despite the highly prospective nature of the Company's holdings, we don't expect GeoGlobal to receive a lot of immediate financial benefits from existing and future discoveries. All but one of the Company's blocks is non-operated with very small working interests, which means that discoveries do not translate into large amounts of net production." (IMO this is pretty bogus considering we have a new exploration company with 5% of a likely giant gas field -- sounds like spin to me)

3) "We like the GeoGlobal story and believe that there is a lot of potential in the Company's properties..." (Seems to contradict their point #2 above)

4) They cite 3 principal risks as: (a) possibility of < 20TCF recoverable gas, (b) if they cannot meet their aggressive drilling plan for 19 gross wells in 2006 (all properties onshore & offshore) and (c) if productive rates are below expectations. (We already knew this as typical exploration & development drilling assessment risk)

5) "GeoGlobal has an experienced management team with strong connections to India..." (Mentioned JPR, India country Mgr & Dr. Chandra)

6) "GeoGlobal has put together an impressive set of oil and gas blocks in the past three years."

7) "The country of India is under-explored compared to most areas of the world, and there is vast hydrocarbon potential in accessible areas."

8) "GeoGlobal has a clean balance sheet which should allow the Company to finance itself with internal sources for the foreseeable future... we still do not think that GeoGlobal will need to seek outside sources of capital until 2009."

9) "GGR believes that production will not occur until at least five wells are drilled, and that gross gas production will initially be limited to 150 MMcfgpd".

10) "GeoGlobal does not expect to book any reserves until mid-2006."

(Continued in Part 2)

OAD

-- posted by Kirk

Top 761. Jan 8, 2006 6:16 AM

» Kirk - Jefferies GGR Report -- Review (Part 2)

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Jefferies GGR Report -- Review (Part 2)
by: OracleAtDelphi 01/07/06 07:27 pm
Msg: 16317 of 16398

(Continued from Part 1)

11) Jefferies assumptions estimate: "total (net) onshore oil production of 179 BOE per day in 2006, 739 BOE per day in 2007, and 1,900 BOE per day in 2008."

12) Deeper upside oil potential at Tarapur based on 8600 foot level oil discovery in neighboring block (JPR was involved I believe)

13) "We believe that it is highly likely that GeoGlobal ends up with interests in additional onshore concessions. We expect GeoGlobal to continue to aggressively bid for oil and gas concessions in India in the future. We also expect that the Company will likely seek to take on larger participating interests and operated positions going forward."

14) "The Indian government showed confidence in GeoGlobal by accepting the Company's bid on the DS Block, and we think that this will be a stepping stone to additional concessions."

15) "GeoGlobal believes that the Deen Dayal discovery covers an areal extent of at least 25,000 acres, and that it will require at least 10 wells to delineate the structure."

16) "Once GSPC is finished drilling the KG #17 well, it plans to immediately commence drilling the KG #14 well from the same location."

17) "The operator plans to drill one more well from this location before moving the rig to the northeast and continuing to delineate the discovery."

18) Estimated arrival date for the Atwood Beacon "around September 2006".

19) "GSPC estimates that it should take 90-100 days to drill each well at a completed cost of about $25 million per well."

20) "Based on this timetable, we would expect to see four to five additional wells drilled on the KG Block in 2006...".

21) With two rigs running, the pace of drilling should pick up in 2007, and we expect to see an additional eight gross wells drilled on the KG Block."

22) GeoGlobal believes that production should occur in the field by the end of 2007 once there are at least five successful wells drilled and permanent infrastructure is put in place.

Folks, there's a lot more info, but those are some of the highlights that I thought were worth mentioning.

In summary I feel that the report is generally very positive, except for the perceived delay of the Atwood Beacon not arriving until Sept 2006, and of course their low price target with which I disagree.

I hope that this is helpful, informative and perhaps even encouraging to us all.

OracleAtDelphi (OAD)

-- posted by Kirk

Top 762. Jan 8, 2006 10:05 AM

» AL_W - Kirk and his GGR

-- posted by AL_W

Top 763. Jan 9, 2006 5:50 AM

» Kirk - Re: Kirk and his GGR

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In response to Kirk and his GGR posted by AL_W:

LOL Al!

Yes, GGR has been berry berry good to me!

-- posted by Kirk

Top 764. Jan 9, 2006 5:53 AM

» Kirk - GSPC not to tap capital market now

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This is good news for GGR because it means GGR is one of the few ways for individual investors to invest directly in the Krishna Godavari basin.

GSPC not to tap capital market now
http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_...

PIYUSH PANDEY
Posted online: Monday, January 09, 2006 at 0153 hours IST

MUMBAI, JAN 8: Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation (GSPC) has decided against tapping the capital market to develop India's largest gas find of 20 trillion cubic feet (TCF) in the Krishna Godavari basin. Instead, GSPC is exploring the joint venture (JV) route with international oil majors to develop the basin, which would require funds of over Rs 1,500 crore. The company had earlier talked about diluting up to 20% stake by December 2005.

Confirming the development DJ Pandian, managing director, GSPC told FE, "We are not tapping the capital market as of now. We would develop the KG basin through the internal resources. We are in talks with global players to jointly develop the basin."

GSPC has shortlisted several international oil and gas majors for equity stake and for technology partnership. These companies include Shell, ExxonMobil, British Petroleum, British Gas, ENI of Italy, Total of France and Enadarko. Meanwhile, Indian oil and gas majors like Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), GAIL India Ltd and Indian Oil Corporation Ltd (IOCL) have also envisaged interest in picking up equity stake for developing the KG basin.

IOCL has even signed a memorandum of understanding for developing the basin together.

-- posted by Kirk