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- Rande
- Mark_J
- Rande
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- KLR
- KLR
- Rande
- Rande
- Rande
- DanG_6
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» Rande - DEBATE:
DEBATE: Soft landing or recession?Sometimes it pays to listen to the folks who manage the bond money. Here's the odds from two of the best -- Dan Fuss (Loomis, Sayles & Co.) and Bill Gross (PIMCO), taken from an interview in the July/August 2000 edition of "Financial Advisor":
Fuss -- Soft landing 60%, Recession 25%, Rapid Expansion 15%
Gross -- Recession 50%, Soft Landing 30%, Rapid Expansion 20%
So much for consensus.
-- posted by Rande
» Mark_J - Rande
Some of the numbers coming out are showing a very resilient economy. While there are more numbers to come, today's are a telling sign on how consumers are feeling and spending. In otherwords, I think that Greenspan has a lot of analysis ahead of him over the next few weeks.The bond market got hammered on today's numbers.
-- posted by Mark_J
» Rande - Mark,
Mark,Not sure "hammered" is the right word. Long bond is currently up on the session with the yield at 5.79%. The existing home sales and consumer confidence numbers came in slightly higher than expected, but nothing extraordinary. The data is second-tier in any event (housing starts and building permits more significant than existing home sales and consumer confidence anecdotal at best). Durable goods for June and the 2Q employment cost index on Thursday, followed by prelimary 2Q GDP numbers on Friday will be more significant, either way.
-- posted by Rande
» KLR - Treasurys managed to hold onto modest gains Tuesday even after t
Treasurys managed to hold onto modest gains Tuesday even after two economic reports showed near-decade-high highest interest rates are barely making a dent in consumer confidence or their spending on expensive items, such as homes.At last check, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note added 5/32 to 103 17/32, with its yield off 2 basis points at 6.01 percent. Moving down the curve, a 5-year note rose 2/32 at 6.14 percent, while the 2-year, the sector most vulnerable to Fed interest-rate moves, was flat at 6.33 percent -- still near its lowest yield in two months.
-- posted by KLR
» KLR - Money on the line
The Federal funds futures market - a gauge of market sentiment on the Fed's short-term borrowing target - indicates about a 30-percent chance that the central bank will opt for another quarter-point crank of the interest-rate dial last next month. Those odds slipped from the 50-50 chance priced into the market before the Fed chief addressed the congressional panel last week.-- posted by KLR
» Rande - Something to keep in mind, looking ahead to the July inflation n
Something to keep in mind, looking ahead to the July inflation numbers coming out in August prior to the next FOMC meeting --Crude oil ended on June 30 at $32.50/barrell. Currently close to $28/barrell. If that price holds or improves through the next four trading days, then July will end with a nearly 14% drop in crude oil prices.
-- posted by Rande
» Rande - Michael Bazdarich says that “Economic Laws Dominate,” so….
Michael Bazdarich says that “Economic Laws Dominate,” so…..Excerpt:
Yes, there are random, chaotic aspects of the economy's movements and of the markets' reactions to it. Still, over the not-too-long run, economic laws dominate, and these usually drive a reasonably orderly movement. So ignore the Fed's utterances and the markets' myopic fears. The "prevailing winds" presently are driving slower growth and declining inflation. Market movements will be random on a day-to-day basis, but stick with these trends, and they will be your friends.
-- posted by Rande
» DanG_6 - Hulbert Speaks!
Rande, since you (and I, too) believe that it's extremely hard to beat the market, I'm repeating this summary of the latest Hulbert Financial Digest that I just posted "over there":------
FYI: Hulbert has just celebrated his 20th year as the "Consumer Reports" of investment advisory services, and has presented an eyeopener for those that still have high hopes of "beating the market" by a significant amount. He's tracked 16 advisory services for the full 20 years, and during that time only THREE have beat the 16.6% annual compounded return of the Wilshire 5000 for the 20 year period! The top doggie (The Prudent Speculator) topped the market by less than 2% (18.5%) per year, and took nearly 2 1/2 times the market risk to do so.
One interesting note (to me, anyway) was that 2 of the 3 market beaters used TA as part or all of their methodology.
One final note of interest was The Granville Market Letter, which somehow has managed to lose a ... get ready for this... an average of 21.9% annually for the full 20 years!!! And this guy is still in business!!! This only proves one thing...Barnum was SO RIGHT!
-- posted by DanG_6
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