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» pjstack - Was it Yogi Berra who said this?
"it's hard to make predictions, especially about the future"? (If not, he should have!!)Author: Roger_Babson
Date: April 17, 2000 10:23 AM
S&P 500 Approx. Date
1100 May 2000
865 July 2000
250 Oct 2002
150 April 2006
The worst part of the slide will occur from Aug-Sept 2001 to Oct-Nov 2002.
A sharp rally will occur (cyclical bull market within a secular bear market) into 2009-10, which will be followed by another crash into 2011 and a flat market for the next 6-7 years.
On a closing monthly basis, the SPX should close below 1304 this month and test the 1100 level sometime next month.
It's tough to be a guru - don't let anyone tell you otherwise!!
Phil Stack: pjstack@aol.com.
-- posted by pjstack
» Rande - Phil,
Phil,Yogi's prediction line has been paraphrased any number of ways:
"It's hard to predict, especially the future."
"Never try to predict, especially when you're talking about the future."
"The hardest thing to predict is the future."
Regardless, the point comes through. I especially like the following, attributed to Yogi, as it seems to fit into the context of a "New Era" paradigm:
"The future is hard to predict, especially since it's not what it used to be."
Yes, the guru business can be tough tough when it comes to predictions, but it doesn't have to be. Reading Roger's post, it's evident he is not a professional fortune teller. First of all, a couple of the predictions are too near-term, too specific -- easily verifiable within memory of the original prediction. Better if he had kept it to what would happen a few years from now. The other glaring indication is the lack of the professional guru's hedge. For example, when making near-term predictions a professional prognosticator might have said something like:
"Investors should keep 40% of their portfolios in the the stock market."
Such a statement might seem strange coming from one who claims to be bearish. Why not have ALL your money out of the market if you expect the worst? Only an amateur would ask such a question. By keeping a foot in, if the market goes down a claim can be made that the 60% cash is a wonderfully soft, warm, fuzzy cusion, comfortably tucked inside the mattress. And if the market goes up, a claim can be made to have meaningfully participated in uncertain times with a reduced level of risk. Never mind the investor's age, time horizon, size of portfolio, risk tolerance, etc. and whether such an allocation is appropriate -- we're talking public relations here, not investor suitability.
At the very least, Roger could have given his prediciton as is and added somthing along the lines of:
"Of course, there is always the possibility for counter-trend rallies in an ongoing bear market."
That way, at any given point in time -- market up, or market down -- he'd be "right."
With all due respect to Yogi, maybe the prediction business isn't so tough after all. So long as you know how to spin it.
-- posted by Rande
» Mark_J - Rande,
Rande,Why not have ALL your money out of the market if you expect the worst?
Obviously, the goal of the January call was to reduce risk. Not avoid the market. Not short or invest in bear funds. Just adjust the risk downward. While one would still participate 40% to whatever way the market blows, the remaining 60% would be making that money market interest morning, noon and night. And ready to take advantage of bear market rallies along the way.
-- posted by Mark_J
» Kirk - Memory is the first to go Mark
MThey say the memory is the first to go Mark.SO what the heck were we talking about? Oh yeah...
I remember when the market was down in the correction that one suru said "I have no problem with being 100% out" or "nobody would have listened to me if I said go to 100%" or "This allowed some people to keep some technology stocks with huge gains"...
Good fortune tellers can roll with the punches and change the past to fit the present.
-- posted by Kirk
» Rande - Only economic data of significance today, business inventories,
Only economic data of significance today, business inventories, provide further evidence of slowdown (even though sales did rise as well):WASHINGTON (AP) - Businesses boosted their stockpiles of goods on shelves and backlots at a faster-than-expected pace in May with retailers leading the way. The Commerce Department said today that business inventories nationwide grew by 0.8 percent in May to a seasonally adjusted $1.18 trillion, the fastest pace since November, when inventories rose by 0.9 percent. May's increase was twice as fast as the 0.4 percent gain many analysts were expecting.
-- posted by Rande
» Rande - Kudlow says, <a href=http:
Kudlow says, "Turn Surplus Into Tax Cuts"Excerpts:
It's also worth noting that as New York (and New Jersey, where Christine Todd Whitman made good on her tax-rate reduction plan) lowered tax-rates, economic growth and tax receipts both increased substantially. In other words, the Laffer curve works at the state and local level as well as nationally.
Speaking of nationally, the growing prospect of a $250 billion FY 2000 budget surplus is prompting what could turn out to be a very nice pro-growth tax-cutting package in this session of Congress. The Investor Class is driving the polls, and House and Senate members surely read the polls.
The last tax-rate above 50 percent is the inheritance tax, first put in place 84 years ago by President (and former New Jersey governor) Woodrow Wilson. Today, the House has actually passed a repeal of the so-called death tax, and favorable Senate action is likely.
President Clinton, playing the usual class warfare card (supply-sider Jude Wanniski calls it "reverse Robin Hood"), threatens to veto an estate tax-cut. But that old-time soak-the-rich rhetoric just doesn't play well politically anymore. Al Gore out there on the campaign trail trashing drug manufacturers and oil companies is learning the same hard lesson.
There's also a good possibility that IRA super-saver accounts will be expanded, and the marriage penalty will be repealed. There might even be a gasoline tax-cut.
My friend and mentor Arthur Laffer called the exploding federal budget surpluses "a tax-cut inventory" at dinner the other night. He's exactly right.
Surpluses should be returned to the private economy that produced them. And if tax cuts are done efficiently by reducing marginal rates, then rising after-tax returns will rejuvenate economic incentives, leading to faster growth and rising revenues.
Federal, state and local citizens unite! It's time to turn surpluses into tax-cuts.
-- posted by Rande
» SteveT - WARNING
I just heard on local radio an interview with an author. Can't say I am chomping at the bit to buy this one.Financial Truths for the 21st Century : Survive the Hype & Heist with Your Wallet Intact! by Ronald P Schutz.
He says first pay off debt, sounds good right? The last place to put money is in your 401K/ SEP etc. Says the reason is it is taxed as ordinary income. He recommends Life Insurance; Whole and Universal life... Wonder what he sells?
-- posted by SteveT
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