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- Rande
- Will_L
- KLR
- Rande
- KLR
- FCSTECKIII
- Rande
- Rande
- Mark_J
- Rande
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» Rande - Kellner, about as objective as anyone out there, says the 8/22 F
Kellner, about as objective as anyone out there, says the 8/22 FOMC meeting is....First of all, the Fed, itself, doesn't know what it's going to do after the August meeting. As a matter of fact, the Fed probably doesn't know what it will do on Aug. 22!
No matter what happens on Aug. 22, don't expect any unambiguous signs of future policy. To forestall the return of irrational exuberance, the Fed will keep ‘em guessing.
-- posted by Rande
» Will_L - Mark
Doing that silly buying and holding, I've averaged 39% over the last 5 years--but 10 percent for the next 7 would give me a double--I'll sign up with you--and you can have all that extra money you make timing in and out and just have to pay me double what I give ya in 10 years-- posted by Will_L
» KLR - PhDs and Other Saviours
Just because you have a Phd or even a Nobel Prize doesn't guarantee much more success than Brinker's long term performance. Remember Long Term Capital Management, which almost collapsed using its $2.2 billion in capital from investors as collateral to buy $125 billion in securities, and then used those securities as collateral to enter into exotic financial transactions worth $1.25 trillion] was even more secretive than most, to prevent rivals from copying its strategy or from anticipating its next move. In essence, the fund placed bets that tiny deviations in the traditional relationships between the prices of various securities would eventually return to normal.Can't lose because the LTMC team could bet with confidence that the relationship would ultimately revert to normal. Myron S. Scholes and Robert C. Merton, who shared a Nobel prize in economics, helped program powerful computers to recognize countless similar profit opportunities.
Greenspan had a handle on it though and poured enough $$$ there to save the world.
-- posted by KLR
» KLR - Secret Timing Model
Drs. Sholes and Merton's timing model was/is proprietary; however, we understand that certain modifications have been made which now makes it absolutely infallible. Wouldn't you rather trust a Nobel Economist model over a over a newly redefined and untested Brinker model? Both may have a few bugs regarding exogenous events and such, but those can be worked out along the way.-- posted by KLR
» FCSTECKIII - Rande: Re: Nothing beats holding the Index
Worked for a major Catalog Warehouse in the early`70's. Back then, this Company offered a Pension
Plan to employees with 10-years of service or
more ...
The Pension Plan followed a very basic investment
principle of holding 60% in the broad based index
and 40% in short-term and intermediate Bonds ...
Once each year, the 'committee' would re-balance
the portfolio to maintain the 60/40 allocation ...
Those employees who served 20-years or more all
retired millionaires ...
Try to persuade these individuals that long-term
Asset Allocation is for fools. -Thanks
-- posted by FCSTECKIII
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