THREAD IS CLOSED!!! Ask Rande 6000+ USE NEW THREAD
- Rande
- Kirk
- JenL_2
- Rande
- Rande
- G_B
- Rande
- Rande
- SteveT
- JenL_2
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» Rande - Mark,
Mark,You're talking about the year-over-year trailing core rate. Let's keep something in mind here, the preceding 12 months a year ago was a time of Depression-level commoditiy prices when oil was selling at $10 a barrell and serious talk of damaging deflation was circulating. Not healthy, and certainly not sustainable. That the past twelve months have seen a rise in the core rate of 1.2% during a time when commodity prices have rebounded strongly and oil, in particular, reached highs not seen since the Gulf War ten years ago, is incredibly positive. Those of us who remember Gerald Ford's "WIN" buttons and double-digit mortgage rates under Carter's watch can only look at 1.2% core inflation at the wholesale level and shake our heads in disbelief at....HOW SWEET IT IS!
-- posted by Rande
» Kirk - 1.2% inflation
Mark,Did this number surprise you?
I still use 3% annual inflation when I help people plan for their retirement years.
I celebrate numbers that combine to make overall inflation lower.
IF you remodel your house,
1/3 goes to labor
1/3 goes to materials
1/3 goes overhead and profit
1.2% material price increase averages with the labor cost component to give overall cost increase. With more business, overhead is spread over more jobs so that number can go down also and still leave a good profit margin, higher OVERALL profits and a hefty raise for workers.
Then again, if you are a Bear looking for justification to be materially out of the market, you hope to find inflation then a recession under every rock. 8)
-- posted by Kirk
» JenL_2 - Congrats on AR6K
Hi Rande - Just noticed that you blew past the 6K mark without stopping to take a bow.<img src="http://www.geocities.com/jeninvestor/thu..." width=205 heighht=256>
Thumbs Up!
Thanks for all you do!.....Jen
-- posted by JenL_2
» Rande - Equal time for the "glass is always half-empty" crowd (or, if no
Equal time for the "glass is always half-empty" crowd (or, if not "always," then at least for those times when they're out of the market and hoping it is) -- here's an excerpt of an analysis at CBSM that casts some caution on reading too much into the numbers. Certainly, crude oil has backed up in the last couple of weeks and is currently nearing $30 -- in spite of higher-than expected supplies, and based on the notion that demand will offset that in the third and fourth quarters (i.e., a "little" commodity speculation going on). We've gotten used to living report-to-report with the econ numbers, given the Fed-watch mode since last year. BUT, it is the long-term Big Picture that counts for investors with more than a May Fly's time horizon. And that picture is a positive one. Meanwhile, here's that half-empty glass:
"We didn't break any new ground with this number," said Henry Willmore, senior economist at Barclays Capital. "The drop in energy prices [that took the PPI lower] has already been reversed in the spot market and it will be reflected in the may and June numbers."
Willmore believes both the retail sales and PPI data released over the past couple of trading sessions won't change the Fed's view for the May 16 policy-setting meeting. He expects a 50 basis point rate hike next week.
However, Willmore believes the Fed will stand pat at the June FOMC meeting because there won't be a great deal of new data to shed light the economy's performance and warrant a move. But he believes the central bank will resume tightening at the August meeting with a 25 basis point rate increase.
The key to Friday's PPI report, according to First Union Securities' chief economist David Orr, is the 0.4 percent jump in the core intermediate stage PPI -- the third 0.4 percent rise for the year. That, he said, will keep the Fed on a 50 basis points rate hike path next Tuesday.
The core intermediate PPI, Orr continued, is also the series that Fed Chair Alan Greenspan has most often cited as a good gauge of pipeline price pressures.
<img src=http://www.internetcount.com/1867857677.cgif width=5 height=5>
-- posted by Rande
» Rande - GB,
GB,A few questions go into the mix, most notably how secure the pension is, the size of the portfolio relative to overall net worth, future spending plans and goals (any major expenditures planned, chartiable intent, family gifts and estate planning, etc.), but....just looking at the surface it sounds like you've got one heck of a pension. Could be you might have a "phantom" stock allocation of only 30% or so even if you went to 100% equities in your "real" portfolio. At 60, presuming good health, you've still got a long time horizon. Risk tolerance and goals for spending play a large part too, current cash flows being met from pension or not. Personally, I wouldn't be inclined to go beyond 75% on the "real" portfolio in your situation, maybe even 60% equities if you think you might tap into some of the portfolio for a big expenditure in the next few years (trip around the world, gifts to family, whatever). The pension is nice and gives a cushion for current cash flow purposes, but you may want to access the portfolio at some point and don't want to have to worry about whether it's during a period of prolonged market adversity. One last thought -- life expectancy is one thing, but "good years" are another. The tables may say you've got another 25 or 30 years, but the years between 60 and 80 are a whole lot different than the years between 80 and 90 for most. Live it up while the living is good. Within reason, of course. ;)
<img src=http://www.internetcount.com/1867857677.cgif width=5 height=5>
-- posted by Rande
» SteveT - More big news
Just got through watch uncle Lou. His guest worked for Barclays and is starting several index type "spiders" trading in real time. Will have to go back and watch the tape but seems like they were talking about 20 or so indexes to start Globally, then progressing to 40 some. The wave of the future? Should be interesting to compare expense ratios and see if they can top Vanguard. One other thing the guest claimed they would be more efficient tax ways than a Mutual Fund due to being able to pick when you take a Capital gain. Going to have to research that a bit more. Don't see how it would be possible to avoid the normal yearly distributions.-- posted by SteveT
» JenL_2 - Vanguard's Arachnophobia
Steve & Rande - Remember this post on the "Diamonds and Spiders" thread:Vanguard's Arachnophobia
<img src="http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Dist...">
.....Jen
-- posted by JenL_2
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