Jorgensens on Money - Free Discussion Site

Top 63. May 27, 2001 9:36 AM

» Rande - Re: Confused?

In response to message posted by Kirk:

Kirk,

Agree -- if old Abe Lincoln were around he'd say, "Told ya," whe it comes to not being able to please all of the people all of the time. For me, it's just amazing that we got anything done in the way of tax relief when all we were supposed to have was "gridlock." Too much for some, not enough for others, but hats off to George Bush for being able to move the government in the right direction.

-- posted by Rande

Top 64. May 27, 2001 9:48 AM

» Kirk - Re: Re: Travel Tips

In response to message posted by Rande:

Yeah, Jim has been talking about this for some time as he and his wife like to cruise. I remember him saying awhile back that Disney and Carnival were building much capacity and it is now hitting the market when we are in a slump. I think they sell the cruises very cheap now to get you in the rooms to tip the staff AND to get commissions on the side trips, drinks, etc.

Sure reminds me of semiconductors where you put in a big supply then prices are down until demand catches up. I wonder if NOW might be a good time to look at buying ship building firms as it is often good to buy semiconductor capital equipment firms when there is a glut of supply of chips?

-- posted by Kirk

Top 65. Jun 10, 2001 11:54 AM

» Kirk - Jim Jorgenson today

Found on Yahoo

Jim Jorgenson today
http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&act...
by: bearfromberkeley (22/F/lalaland) 06/10/01 12:59 pm EDT

Jim is not as lazy as BB and has his show in the morning ;-)

He is very bullish. Briefly, he thinks that a year from now we will look back and thing todays stock prices were very low.

Basic reason for his bullishness is the same as mine as been. Interest rate cuts take about six months to get thru the economy. they should start having some effect in June/July, but more of the affect will be felt later in the year. There is the promise of another cut (probably 1/4 point) this month. What should happen (note the word is should not will) is that the interest cuts will stimulate the economy with increasing impact as the months go by. In other words, June/July will not have much change due to rate cuts, but August will build on this and then so on and so forth..

Add to that the new convoluted tax rebate deal. Money will be going into the economy weekly and that will stimulate spending as most of this rebate is going to the middle class, most of whom will spend it.. they may say on TV that they plan to save it, but that is generally BS .. $40B may not seem like much, but the multiplier effect will add to that... also, this will help to draw down inventories and that should stimulate production which is the weak link in the economy right now...

We will see what we will see...

There will no doubt be corrections along the way, the market does not go straight up ...

BB probably hopes there is a correction back to the April lows so that he can get back into the market.. I don't think we will see a much lower entry point this year and if we make it thru this year and all goes as planned, next year should be a very good year for the market.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 66. Jun 10, 2001 2:55 PM

» DellaO - Re: Jim Jorgenson today

In response to message posted by Kirk:

Kirk, thanks for posting "good ol' Jim's" opinions. He isn't always right (who is?) but he is always honest with/about his predictions. I have a great deal of respect for the man.

And I hereby choose to believe his is absolutely right on - this time...

-- posted by DellaO

Top 67. Aug 5, 2001 8:16 AM

» Kirk - 8/5/01 Outlook

Jim: "The time to be 100% invested is NOW! I am extremely encouraged that the market has bottomed and successfully tested that bottom."
Jim went on about how those with courage to buy now will be rewarded well by next year.

Rich is also bullish.

-- posted by Kirk

Top 68. Sep 9, 2001 10:37 AM

» Slick - " Jorge" Would Sell

Jim Jorgensen said in his opening monolog this AM, that if he owned " tech" stocks that are down 40-50-60 %, like Oracle or Cisco, he would sell them and buy stocks that would recover first from the bottoming rebound. Interesting. He didn't elaborate further, that I heard.

Also, Jr. said MSFT's new OS, " XP", would be a net zero to the stock , as critics would say ' you don't need an upgrade'. Interesting.

Personally, I think many people are waiting for the new system 's release, and will upgrade not only the OS ,but also the PC with Intel's newest chip, sparking the Christmas rally from consumers. But what do I know.Probably more along the lines of " wishful thinking". However, if the market is trying to make a bottom, then the MSFT release's timing is certainly appropriate. They don't think about things like that up there in Redmond, do they?

Slick

-- posted by Slick

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk...

Top 69. Sep 9, 2001 11:00 AM

» Kirk - Re: " Jorge" Would Sell

In response to message posted by Slick:

I heard the show and this time I must say they sounded unprofessional.

Rich's take on HWP was just a repeat of what the papers are saying where little insight was expaneded. I actually read a good take on the HWP/CPQ merger today from an IBM expert:

Assuming a smooth transition, the pony here is the expected 2.5 billion dollar savings per year which will improve margins a good bit. But this assumes they maintain their revenue and growth numbers. As we saw with the Compaq/DEC deal, DEC basically went away from a hardware standpoint. All that was left and what Compaq really wanted was the service business so they paid more than what it appeared on the surface. Compaq is in a stronger position than DEC was so it is a little different but the PC businesses sell into the same space and though the combined market share makes them an instant leader they may not hold this leadership position at this high a level. Corporate buyers will spread their purchases and the new company will get one shot not the current two shots so there will be some erosion not an explosion IMHO.

The printing space will remain strong but would have anyway with HP's product line-up so no big deal here.

Servers and data storage will gain some synergy but have some of the same effects that the PC space will suffer so I am neutral on that piece.
Consulting will benefit from a skills match in complex deals where the new company can bid more competently with regards to skills availability and also from a raw body count. A plus here.
But this will be a tough merger where there will be a lot of internal battles that will take focus off of the everyday business needs of both organizations. Compaq was not a fallen angel and they will want their share.

Richard showed his lack of depth on the subject as he didn't say that HWP has been trying to get a stronger presence in the services business. It first tried by buying PWC but the cultures were far too different to integrate and the deal fell through. CPQ gives HWP the services business that it is weak in.

Also, Jim had been telling people to buy EMC since early 1999 and you can see he is over 50% down since he added it to the Super8. Also, if you follow what he said about sellign stocks taht are down 40-60%, then would you be selling the EMC that he liked at $104.94 and was still saying to buy just weeks ago at $20? EMC closed at $13.50 Friday!

On MSFT... Rich Jr seems a bit out of the loop. I've heard from source that it is a very good upgrade as it doesn't give the old "Blue Screen" nearly as often as even Windows 98 that I run and have crash once a day when I run Internet Explorer! Talk about a joke.. MSFT software crashes itself! ALL my other programs seem to run fine... Anyway, XP is supposed to be very stable which is really good for people that support PCs thus many are probably waiting for it to come out before they upgrade their companies. BTW, many large companies won't upgrade to XP but will upgrade to the latest OS.. They like to be one version behind so they get the most stable product in Windows2000 which is supposed to be stable also.

Also, I have OfficeXP and have used Office2000. XP has some nice features like voice recognition that will be nice on powerful systems... you can enter data into Excel tables with voice or compose your email and posts with it. Too many errors for me and I can manage my RSI pain with rest and breaks but that feature alone is worth an upgrade for businesses wanting to reduce RSI problems...

-- posted by Kirk

Top 70. Oct 7, 2001 9:38 AM

» Kirk - 60% of retirement gone

Sad Story.

A caller retired 18 months ago and rolled her 401K into Fidelity. Since then, her mutual funds are down 60%!

Sure sounds like she jumped on the tech bandwagon and forgot that retired people should be in balanced 50:50 accounts.

Jim says "Its Your Money" and you need to follow it every week, and if it is going down, dump it.

Funny, I don't agree. The stocks on his Super8 are and have been going down and he held them... EMC for sure.

I wish someone would call and ask about why he says to hold stocks in his Super8 and then tells them to sell stuff that is going down.

I think this is BAD advice. If retired, then put 50% into Vanguard Total Bond and 50% into Vanguard Total Stock Market Index. OK to move 10% or more into Foreign and other "explore" areas.

Ahhh... now some clarification:

Now, Jim is saying if you think the stocks in the fund are good, then hold for them to come back... Funny... he says sell unless the stocks are going to go up. Sounds like good advice to me...just I wonder how you figure this out ahead of time?

-- posted by Kirk

Top 71. Jan 6, 2002 9:55 AM

» Slick - Jorgensen On Ginnie

Oh ...say it ain't so, Jim.

Mr Jorgensen this AM. tongued ( metaphorically of course) our favorite girl, GNMAs...saying he hated them.I'll have to listen to the replay ( just past the first hour ) and get to the details, but he basically called them 'shark bait', with excellent commissions. Maybe someone could expand on this , if they heard that little segment ?

Slick

-- posted by Slick