Jorgensens on Money - Free Discussion Site

» SteveT - Feb 4th show

The thing that really caught my attention was a quick review of his "model portfolio". He said he can make a bad pick and if he does he will talk about it and not avoid it. He also help a widow that sold out her position in PG&E and needs income. He suggested high quality corporate bonds or CD’s. He pointed out the possibility of gain if she bought the bonds and interest rates fall like he thinks they will.

A very informative show for us average investors. To listen on the net go to.
http://www.broadcast.com/shows/thejorgen...

-- posted by SteveT

» Kirk - Super-8 up 8.6% YTD as of 1/31/01

His best year for the Super-8 was in 1998 when it was up 55% but I know for a fact that he didn't start the Super-8 fund until late in the year so the performance should not be used to judge the Super-8. http://www.itsyourmoney.com/electronic/i...

The Super-8 has been remarkable in how it has beaten the averages. Jim is different than I in that he likes drug companies whereas I like financial institutions to go with our technology holdings. What makes Jim's Super-8 so good is he just lets it run, year after year. He did have XON in it when he started and dropped it in favor of EMC in early 1999 so he did VERY well with that switch where he more than doubled his money.

Monthly Results		     Total return Since	
as of 01/31/01             12/31/00   12/31/99  12/31/98
_
Kirk's Stock Portfolio      18.9%       5.3%    128.5%
_
SPY                          4.4%      (5.7%)    12.7%
DJIA                         1.0%      (5.2%)    18.6%
QQQ                         11.0%     (29.1%)     NA
NASDAQ Comp                 12.3%     (31.8%)    26.5%
_
Motley Fool Rulebreaker     27.9%    (39.3%)    (1.9%)
Motley Fool Rulebreaker      2.5%    (34.0%)    (6.6%)
_
Bob Brinker Portfolio #1     1.0%     (0.2%)     58.5%
Bob Brinker Portfolio #2     0.9%     (0.2%)     33.5%
Bob Brinker Portfolio #3     0.4%      6.3%      17.8%
_
Jorgensen Super-8            8.6%      5.8%      43.4%

what I like about Jim's super8 is Jim shows how you can pick a basket of stocks across a few sectors and get good results with a buy n hold approach even when some of the stocks like MSFT have terrible periods. Figure he tossed out one stock in favor of another in the past 3 years so the turnover is low.

Jim often tells his "best bet" for what stock in the super8 to add during his show.

-- posted by Kirk

» SteveT - Is the bottom in? Jim thinks we are very near a bottom now.

He also mentioned a strategy of a core of Index Funds that would amount to 50-60 % of your portfolio consisting of Index Funds. 1/3 in each of S&P 500, Mid cap, and Small Cap. May not be market weighted but over time it could work out OK.

-- posted by SteveT

» Kirk - Re: Is the bottom in? Jim thinks we are very near a bottom now.

He said the FED was in a panic after the Election but they felt they could not act until the election was settled. Now they are playing catch up.

Interesting Steve! I just posted something similar to this on the SI AMAT thread. I said that ECRI FIG charts showed clearly that inflation had turned over in November and that the FED could have lowered rates then but they usually don't want to do this during an election. The fact that we were in gridlock to settle the election for 6 weeks or so made it even worse as they couldn't lower until the winner was resolved.

The GOOD news is the ECRI WLI has now turned up for the last three weeks indicating we might have a bottom already.

-- posted by Kirk

» DennisL - Re: Re: Is the bottom in? Jim thinks we are very near a bottom n

Kirk said,

I said that ECRI FIG charts showed clearly that inflation had turned over in November

Be careful about dismissing the inflation threat so soon. The energy crisis is the HUGE X-factor in the equation. If the crisis isn't resolved real soon, I believe that inflation will become a big factor going forward.

When I did my weekly grocery shopping yesterday, I noticed steep price increases over the week before in many of the items that I buy regularly.

-- posted by DennisL

» Kirk - Cardboard Boxes

Anyone know where to get this online?

-- posted by Kirk

» Rande - Re: Cardboard Boxes

Shipments of corrugated boxes has long been considered an indicator of business activity (a lot of stuff gets shipped in those boxes). Here's an article from Dismal on it (not sure if they track it):

http://www.dismal.com/todays_econ/te_110...

-- posted by Rande

» Kirk - Super-8 down 8.9% YTD as of 2/24/01

My guess is Jim will say EMC is a buy at current levels but hopefully someone will call in and ask (and someone will post his answer here)

-- posted by Kirk

» SteveT - Re: Cardboard Boxes

I had a few free minutes, didn't find much exactly. I did find a few companies in the sector.
http://biz.yahoo.com/research/indgrp/con...

I looked at estimates for a couple of them. Looks like 2000 was a decent year for earnings and they expect them to drop off in 2001, but double from 2000 levels in 2002.

-- posted by SteveT

» SteveT - EMC

He said she made a great deal over the last 6 years about 1000% and should expect some pain to pay for the gain Seriously it is suffering with all the Techs and particularly the computer softness. Jim said it is in adjustment period that comes along every 10 years or so in the entire market.

Positive points, it is still a leader and many new things in the pipeline. If you own it hold it, if you buy now you will look pretty smart in 2 or 3 years.

-- posted by SteveT