Joe Battipaglia
- ron
- RandeS
- JenL_3
- KirkL
- SteveT
- Rande
- DennisL
- DennisL
- Rande
- DennisL
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» RandeS - Support of Joe Battapaglia is "preaching to the choir" for me.
Support of Joe Battapaglia is "preaching to the choir" for me. Have always appreciated his commentary and market insight. Also think highly of Larry Kudlow. Many put these two down because they are unabashed optimists and currently bullish on the market. Says more about the put-down artists than these two. Crude though it might be, once again I'll say these are no "wild-ass" bulls. One always gets the impression they have thought their case well through. Which is more than you can say for many others.-- posted by RandeS
» JenL_3 - Joe B's Market Commentary
OK - Here from Gruntal.com is Joe Battipaglia's Market Commentary...We See Negligible Signs of Inflation
<img src="http://www.gruntal.com/research/colorjoe..." width=100 height=105>
....Jen
-- posted by JenL_3
» KirkL - Joe Battipaglia Weekly Perspective
WOW! What a great report this week with graphs and tables to explain his bullishness.http://www.gruntal.com/research/joeb.html
Hey, we find the best links for you here!
This environment of relatively steady interest rates, renewed global expansion, and the upcomingelection year should again result in favorable stock market performance. My 1999 year-end targets for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ Composite are still 12,000, 1,600, and 2,900, respectively. The long-term 30-year Treasury may well close the year at 5.75%. The year 2000 should be another win for the bulls. My year-end 2000 targets are 14,000 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 1,850 for the S&P 500, and 3,400 for the NASDAQ Composite. I expect the long-term Treasury yield to close at 5.5%.
Recent worries about the U.S. dollar/yen relationship needs to be put into context. ....
Our forecasts for 2000 lead us to recommend that investors stay fully invested in the growth sectors that we have highlighted for some time......
Remember, this is the same Federal Reserve chief who responded appropriately in 1987, 1990, and 1998. His legacy may well be to bring central bankers and their antiquated models into the 21st century...........
-- posted by KirkL
» SteveT - Joe B.
recent outlook here.It isn't always posted for long at this site so here are some key points. "My year-end targets for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ composite indexes remain at 12,000, 1,600, and 2,900, respectively." You may also ask possible questions for Joe to answer until Tuesday the 28th.
-- posted by SteveT
» DennisL - The Latest From Joe B.
Click here to read Joe Battipaglia's weekly stock market commentary. He continues to be bullish, of course. Of particular interest to me is his statement that passive index investing will not be as rewarding next year because of high valuations. To wit, this excerpt:With steady interest rates, I believe investors will focus more intently on earnings growth to move stock prices higher. Passive index investing should be less rewarding as the new "Nifty Fifty" now carry premium valuations. Indeed, the NASDAQ records have been achieved despite the weakness in investor favorite Dell Computer. Microsoft may well stumble for some time as the anti-trust judge serves up rulings like those of this past weekend. Stock price performance will be a company by company affair. It is no longer a matter of small cap vs. big cap or growth versus value. Investment success will be determined by four factors:
- Companies must meet and beat Wall St. expectations for revenues and earnings,
- Companies professing a global position or technological leadership must reinforce that with appropriate mergers, acquisitions or strategic alliances,
- Companies must move quickly to harness the internet and form e-commerce initiatives,
- Surplus cash flow after funding R&D and capital expenditures should be used to repurchase stock.
This change in orientation suggests a much broader market move than we’ve seen in the last two years. The major indices will advance consistent with their historical norm in the area of 11% per annum allowing carefully crafted portfolios to once again shine through.
If Joe is right, this should make sharp stock pickers really happy. But 11% for the major market indexes? What's wrong with that? I would be extremely happy with an 11% average annual return going forward.
-- posted by DennisL
» DennisL - Joe B.'s Spin on the Rate Hike
Joe B. posted these comments yesterday at the Gruntal site, http://www.gruntal.com/research/joeb.html ."The Federal Reserve voted to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 5 ½% and adopted a neutral bias. While this is not what I would have preferred, it was fully expected by the market. The key issue here is that the Fed has gone back to a neutral bias. The consensus expectation is that the Fed now rests taking us into the New Year. The markets should then flourish based upon the good, solid fundamentals and the absence of federal market operations on interest rates. We deem the news consistent with our overall attitude regarding the markets. Whether the Fed raised rates or did not, the key is that they are finishing their work. Therefore, the neutral bias they have announced plays into our investment thesis. We are staying with our expectations across the board for new highs going forward on the various indices."
I could not agree with him more.
Onward, bulls, onward!
-- posted by DennisL
» Rande - Dennis,
Dennis,Also agree with Joe, especially the part abou the rate hike NOT being what I would have preferred. Higher rates make further multiple expansion all the more difficult (not that there was much, if any, room there anyway) and, so, all the more reliance will be placed on earnings. The potential problem there is that the Fed does "too good" a job in slowing down the economy. In any event, I particularly agree with the following Joe B. comment from the link you provided (though I think something slightly less than the historical norm might be more reasonable from an expectations standpoint):
Over the coming twelve months, while new highs will be achieved, price-to-earnings multiple expansion should be limited and, therefore, market averages should turn in a more historically normal performance with returns tending toward the historical average annual return of 11%.
-- posted by Rande
» DennisL - Battipaglia on Technology
In Joe's weekly stock market commentary today, he is extremely bullish on technology.Excerpts:
For many years, we have witnessed the evolution of the U.S. economy from an industrial based model to a network and information oriented model because of rapid technological innovation, globalization and deregulation. The mass acceptance of the internet has only accelerated this process.
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Just as the transformation of the economy has created opportunity, so too has it challenged many of the basic rules for classifying a company’s business and measuring the value of productive inputs such as intellectual property or the cost of creating these assets...It is no longer enough to assume that all "technology companies" will be successful at executing their business plans.
Furthermore, it will become increasingly difficult to partition off technology into a separate category from the industrial economy. The recent decision to add several technology names to the list of Dow Industrials highlights this shift. The term "technology" as popularly understood should loose meaning just as the term "industrial" lost much of it’s descriptive value as the industrial age evolved.
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Two areas of special interest include "Internet Software, Service and Content Providers" and "Telecommunication (or Internet Backbone) Infrastructure.
While some fear the fallout of a burst "internet bubble", our analysis shows that Internet content and software companies account for only 7% of the overall NASDAQ market capitalization but carry expected long term growth rates approximately twice that of other rapidly growing segments within technology.
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Internet software and content providers should materially benefit from the massive, ongoing investment in network architecture by companies such as MCI Worldcom and AT&T.
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Telecommunications, wireless and fiber optics equipment companies have been some of the year’s best performing groups. Companies like Lucent, JDS Uniphase and Nortel have all benefited from rising investment in network infrastructure. Baring any unforeseen interruption in business spending, I expect to see strong demand, rising order backlogs and higher equity prices for these groups in the coming months. Investors should therefore remain overweighted in these areas.
I think Joe's commentary succinctly confirms everything everyone has been saying about the technology revolution. If you ignore it, deny it, or downplay it, you're doomed. If you accept it, understand it, and prudently invest in it, you can profit handsomely.
-- posted by DennisL
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