Joe Battipaglia
- Kirk
- Hughey
- JenL_2
- Kirk
- Kirk
- Kirk
- SteveT
- KLR
- Rande
- soonertimer
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» Kirk - Joe on CNBC now
Guess what?He is BULLISH!
Oh, you KNEW that... OK..
Says retail sales strength is a great surprise today.
Says prices of stocks are now discounting the end of bad news and we are now waiting for signs of a true turn-a-round that he thinks is close. THAT is why they had a nice run.
(Sounds to me like they are subject to a huge correction or even a bear continuation IF the good news doesn't come.)
Still likes pharmaceuticals and technology.
Avoid companies that can't get unit volume growth to where they want to be.
Says to take profits in energy and drillers! Says their numbers will now be hard to beat in future comparisons.
-- posted by Kirk
» Hughey - Re: Re: Re: Joe and bullrun in the news
In response to message posted by Roger_Babson:"..the guy is nothing more than a shill"
Agreed!. Ditto Abby Cohen, Tommy Galvin, Al Goldman and a host of others. They parade, or at least used to, throught Lou Rukeyser's show. It is so transparent. Ralphie Acapopo is another. He flips like a windsock at the airport. Whichever way its blowing... Yeahs ago Joey Ganville was excoriated for his bad calls. Today, if equal treatment was given , it would take 100 Don Rickles working round the clock for a year at all the night clubs in Las Vegas and N'Yawk to mete out the ridicule due the market seers on Wall Street Week , Brinker and the others.
But I imagine their ranks have not been dimmed on WSW etc.
Joe must be thinking "why couldn't I have been born 20 yrs later?"
-- posted by Hughey
» JenL_2 - 'BATMAN" Speaks Live in Florida
These posts copied from the "US Stock Market" thread:Author: Jaybird248
Date: May 23, 2001 5:02 AM
Subject: 'BATMAN" Speaks Live in Florida
Last night I attended a seminar in Ft. Lauderdale given by Joe "Batman' Battipaglia, Gruntal's leading guru and frequent CNBC Squawk co-host.
Joe, who looks younger and thinner, though no smaller, in person, was typically bullish and made these points:
--The economy is in good shape, despite a media focus on tech's problems. If top tech names were deleted from the SP500, the average would have been up 12% last year.
--There will be no recession, and cap ex spending will increase this year. Already increasing in health care, oil/gas, utilities, some financials.
--The typical household net worth is 1/3 real estate, 1/3 fixed income, 1/3 equities. Only the equities portion has been weak. The consumer remains strong, unemployment may peak at 4.6-4.7. It was 5+ during the go go years of the 90s.
--Investors should focus on secular growth stocks, e.g. tech and financial services; mature companies in consolidating industries i.e. paper, oil/gas, and international by company, not country or region.
And most interesting: The market typically starts to rally for real halfway through a Fed easing cycle. That's just where we are now.
Joe suggested the following stocks to watch (Pls recheck my symbols before you invest!):
Tech: INTC, AMAT, MSFT, CSCO, ORCL, SUNW
Drugs: MRCK, PFE, JNJ, LLY, Pharmacia, and a takeover target in Schering/Plough
Financial: GoldmanSachs, C, MerrillLynch, bANK1, First Union
Retail: Kohls, Federated, WMT, HD, Lowes, BBY
Auto: GM, F, Toyota
Electronics: Sony
Small/Midcap: AW, CALP, CHTR, LSI, NFS, NFB, PSC, RAD
Jay Scott
Author: Jaybird248
Date: May 23, 2001 5:12 AM
Subject: Batman's Targets
A couple more bits from Joe's talk in Florida:
--Year end targets:
Dow - 12700 Up 13% from now
SP 1650 Up 28% from now
NAS 3000 Up 29% from now
Also,on his point that the market rallies for real halfway through a Fed ease...where he feels we are now.
The average gain from that point is 20-25%.
Jay Scott
Author: JenL_2
Date: May 23, 2001 7:43 AM
Subject: Re: Batman's Targets
In response to message posted by Jaybird248:
Wow - Thanks for the Joe Report Jay. Sure hope he's right - would be happy with Dow 12K at Year-end, as long as we never re-visit Dow 11K again!....Jen
-- posted by JenL_2
» Kirk - Re: 'BATMAN" Speaks Live in Florida
In response to message posted by JenL_2:Thanks Jay and Jen!
JoeB was "a bit" over exuberant when he predicted NASDAQ 6000 right after it hit $5,000 but his advice to remain fully invested and how he handled being wrong were RIGHT ON!
Some people make a big deal of Joe saying he thought the NASDAQ would go up an additional 20% to 6,000 in the next year after it had just gone up 100%, but I looked at it Joe as saying "we'll see more growth, but at a much lower rate... no get rich quick here".
thanks again!
-- posted by Kirk
» Kirk - Guess what?
Joe is still bullish
He likes today:
N F(orty)? Bank (might have this wrong as I can't find the company!)
Caliper (bio Tech tools)
VLSI (logic chips)
He also said now is the time to buy companies like Intel as they will be MUCH higher in 12-18 months, could go lower, but when they run, they run hard and those that try to time the bottom often miss the big gains.
-- posted by Kirk
» Kirk - Weekly Perspective
Weekly Perspectivehttp://www.gruntal.com/research/commenta...
June 4, 2001
S&P 500 Index – 1,260.67
Bonds rallied last week despite early indications that May was a solid month for the consumer. This is noteworthy because it supports our case that the consumer will remain strong, that recession will be avoided and that prices (ex-energy) will remain stable. As a result, financial assets, particularly equities, will perform well in anticipation of full earnings recovery looking out to 2002-2003.
I do not share the concerns voiced by some that the Federal Reserve has been overly aggressive in easing credit. On the contrary, most commodity, producer, and consumer prices will ease further thanks to fewer capacity constraints, competition from cheap imports and advancing structural productivity. Last week’s sharp falloff in gold prices to a 1 ½ year low of $266 a troy ounce is just another indication of stability at the commodity level. Furthermore, short of severely hot weather, a major refinery failure or other unforseen event, I expect energy and gasoline prices to moderate through the summer into the fall as imported and domestic supplies prove sufficient to meet demand. OPEC ministers are meeting in Vienna tomorrow to discuss production quotas. Iraq has already vowed to suspend oil exports after the US Security Council voted to extend the oil-for-food exchange program by only a month, instead of the normal six-month renewal. OPEC and Saudi Arabia may suggest increases in output in response, but sufficient supplies, production capacity, stable prices and the willingness of OPEC to raise production to meet demand remove should ameliorate much of the Iraqi impact. Stable core consumer prices, and easing commodity prices should help ease long term bond rates toward the 5 – 5 ½% range.
Meanwhile signs of recovery continue to emerge. Last week, we saw an improvement in many key areas affecting consumption and demand. For the month of May, consumers bought more automobiles than expected, became more confident in their outlook, earned more, and saw the jobless rate fall. This performance makes near-term recession less likely and suggests that excess inventories continue to be drawn down at a rapid pace. This week, I expect to see a modest revision downward to first quarter productivity numbers reflecting the downward revision to first quarter GDP data two weeks ago. Also, I expect to see an increase earnings warnings now that the customary “confession season” is upon us. On balance, I expect the market to be more forgiving of these transgressions than in the past. As I mentioned on April 9 th , the stock market can move higher despite lingering downward pressure on earnings.
Sector performance also remains supportive of continued recovery in the economy. Since early April, the basic materials, capital goods, consumer cyclicals, technology and transportation sectors have all performed well. At the same time, yield spreads between long and short dated maturities have generally widened as credit spreads between government and similarly dated corporate issues have narrowed.
-- posted by Kirk
» SteveT - NBR appearance
Joe is scheduled to be NBR tonight if you miss it tomorrow you can read about it here. http://www.nightlybusiness.org/news_acti...-- posted by SteveT
» KLR - Forecasting is no easier at the bottom - [Thank you Joe!]
Forecasting is no easier at the bottomCommentary: Good thing the business cycle's not dead
By Joseph V. Battipaglia, CBS MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 11:46 AM ET Aug. 20, 2001
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Last week was again difficult as investors waited for some sign of recovery.
The week was not devoid of new data, however. Weekly jobless claims came in less than expected, the National Association of Purchasing Manufacturer's index also came in better than expected and the bond market continued to rally.
Improvements in the jobs and manufacturing data are important to the recovery scenario we've laid out.
Moreover, as the bond market rallies into this week's Fed meeting, the earnings yield on the ten-year treasury and the earnings yield on the S&P 500 (SPX: news, chart, profile) stand near parity at 4.8 percent. Last April, the market rallied strongly off this inflection point before succumbing to renewed concerns over earnings.
While forecasted earnings are likely to be revised lower, the passage of time, the normal corrective mechanisms in the economy, the tax cut, and Fed easing all suggest that earnings recovery is on the way.
The problems with second and third quarter expectations were not surprising. Today's forecasting challenges are no different from years past and judgments about next year may well be premature.
In years past, analysts have had a tough time predicting earnings. During the last fifty quarters, analysts underestimated the coming year's S&P operating earnings 76 percent of the time when comparing actual results versus the expectation at the start of the period.
Moreover, the average "underestimate" (12.9 percent) was much larger than the average overestimate (2.5 percent) by a margin greater than 5 to 1. The largest underestimate (31.8 percent) came, not surprisingly, at the start of recovery in 1990 when conditions seemed the most bleak.
History offers more lessons about earnings and recovery. While a slowing economy hurts earnings in the near-term, the recovery from periods of depressed economic activity can be and often is explosive.
Consider the fact that the average increase in year-over-year quarterly earnings was 27 percent in the twelve months following recessions since World War II. The simple fact is that forecasts made during an economic bottom are not easier or more accurate than forecasts made at the height of a bubble.
We have gone though one and one-half years of correcting excess, inventory draw-down, and business restructuring in preparation for the next spurt in demand of all sizes and shapes.
The business cycle, far from dead, has served once again as a check on the economy as excesses are wrung out and capital flows to where returns are most attractive and sustainable. Today's environment of inventory draw-down, capacity absorption, increased liquidity and layoffs should help stoke a new period of renewed earnings growth that will drive the next leg of the bull market.
-- posted by KLR
» Rande - Batta up.
Batta up....Looks like 'ol Joltin Joe is still swinging:
Look for the Fed to ease up on the gas
Commentary: Economic turnaround appears to loom
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.as...
Says S&P earnings will be $58 next year and is still looking for 1650 by 12/31. BTW, good piece in today's WSJ about how the once-influential "market prognosticators" (Abby, Joe, etc.) are having less of an impact on investors these days.
-- posted by Rande
» soonertimer - Re: Forecasting is no easier at the bottom - [Thank you Joe!]
In response to message posted by KLR:Batman is truly amaaaazing!! His observation that the yield on the 10-year note and the earnings yield on the S&P 500 were near "parity" is correct - JUST as correct as the fact that the S&P 500 was about 70% OVERVALUED in Jan '00! Did he mention that fact THEN - of course, no way. He has "seen the light" in using words like "EXCESS and BUBBLE will wonders ever cease?!
-- posted by soonertimer
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